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GALLUP B49-K47 FL K+3 PA B+4 OH K+4 MN K+8 WI B+8 IA B+2
Posted on 10/31/2004 5:14:39 PM PST by montereyp1
Just released on CNN.
TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: Minnesota; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: battleground; gallup; polls; purplestates
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To: MisterRepublican
21
posted on
10/31/2004 5:20:56 PM PST
by
Petronski
(A Monday morning quarterback has never led any team to victory.)
To: xuberalles
Well if OH, FL and PA are so close that they change constantly, chances are Bush can grab one of the three, and if he does, he gets very close to the magic number. Two of them, and he wins outright as long as he holds his own (including NV, NM and CO).
To: montereyp1
My POV from here in WI: the only way Bush wind up +8 in a poll is if they undersample the People's REpublics of Madison and Milwaukee. No way Bush wins WI by 8. IF he wins, it will be by 2 or less.
23
posted on
10/31/2004 5:21:20 PM PST
by
cschroe
To: montereyp1
If these were to hold true, giving Kerry NH, NJ and HI, Bush would win 270 to 268.
24
posted on
10/31/2004 5:21:46 PM PST
by
counterpunch
(The CouNTeRPuNcH Collection - www.counterpunch.us)
To: faithincowboys
Well it is really strange, but we win with these results! Go W!
To: montereyp1
LOL, this will be what Kerry will be showing to Gore Wens. Night while they are slumped over drunk at some bar trading stories about who got the election stolen from them by Bush the worst.
26
posted on
10/31/2004 5:22:12 PM PST
by
txroadkill
(let not your heart be troubled: Bush by a Landslide-I voted already, that's one for Bush!)
To: Jackson Brown
GOOD EYE
W2004
CIAO
WITH ALL THE STRESS I DIDNT NOTICE
THNX
27
posted on
10/31/2004 5:22:17 PM PST
by
italianquaker
(CATHOLIC AND I VOTE)
To: dagnabbit
"Where would Gallup's breakdown leave the Electoral vote count, assuming all the states not mentioned (non-battleground) go where expected?"
Bush Victory! of exactly 270.
To: montereyp1
http://home.bellsouth.net/p/PWP-hotline
Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000 National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure 2000-Preliminary
|
Gore |
Bush |
Nader |
Un- decided |
Other |
Gore- Bush |
Margin Error Poll - Elect |
Candidate Error |
Election Result |
48% |
48% |
3% |
|
1% |
0% |
|
|
Zogby |
48% |
46% |
5% |
0% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
1.0% |
CBS |
45% |
44% |
4% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
0.5% |
Harris (Phone) |
47% |
47% |
5% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0.0% |
Gallup/CNN/USA Today |
46% |
48% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
Pew Research |
47% |
49% |
4% |
0% |
0% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
IBD/CSM/Tipp |
46% |
48% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
ICR/Politics Now |
44% |
46% |
7% |
1% |
2% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
NBC/WSJ |
44% |
47% |
3% |
4% |
2% |
-3% |
3% |
1.5% |
ABC/WashPost |
45% |
48% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
-3% |
3% |
1.5% |
Battleground |
45% |
50% |
4% |
0% |
1% |
-5% |
5% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
Avg. Error |
2.2% |
1.1% |
Alternative Methods |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Harris Interactive |
47% |
47% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0.0% |
Rasmussen |
49% |
40% |
4% |
|
9% |
9% |
4.5% |
|
THIRD PARTY ERROR |
|
---------------------Allocate Undecided*----------------------- |
Gore |
Bush |
Nader |
Other |
Nader Error |
|
48% |
46% |
5.0% |
1% |
2% |
100% |
47% |
46% |
4.0% |
2% |
1% |
100% |
47% |
47% |
5.0% |
1% |
2% |
100% |
46% |
48% |
4.0% |
2% |
1% |
100% |
47% |
49% |
4.0% |
0% |
1% |
100% |
46% |
48% |
4.0% |
2% |
1% |
100% |
44% |
46% |
7.0% |
2% |
4% |
100% |
46% |
49% |
3.0% |
2% |
0% |
100% |
46% |
49% |
3.0% |
1% |
0% |
100% |
45% |
50% |
|
29
posted on
10/31/2004 5:22:46 PM PST
by
Rome2000
(The ENEMY for Kerry!!!)
To: Petronski
Ummm, wait a minute. The article says Bush is up 49 to 47 %, not 49-49. Is the 49-49 tally a result of their 'statistical allocation' of undecideds? If so, then this makes more sense. Gallup is really guessing on the undecideds but would have Bush with a 2 point lead among LV.
30
posted on
10/31/2004 5:22:55 PM PST
by
ijkrst
To: montereyp1
CNN website show Bush 49% and Kerry 47% among LV.
To: counterpunch
I'd bet my life these are wrong...Bush will definitely win Ohio...and most likely florida. I agree he can win wisconsin, but no way by 8 points. These people are ill!
To: All
If those numbers are the outcome here is the map. Get off the ledge everyone. I don't see it playing this way though
33
posted on
10/31/2004 5:23:16 PM PST
by
KoRn
To: Petronski
obviously they need bush and kerry to be tied going into the election so that, when the democrats (the party of 20/20 hindsight) start suing and protesting everything in sight, they will look justified.
the reality that bush is really ahead will be obscured in all the rage.
34
posted on
10/31/2004 5:24:07 PM PST
by
wildwood
To: xuberalles
Look at it this way folks: These guys have been wrong all year. They were wrong in 1996; they were wrong in 2000; they were WAY wrong in 2002; and they were BEYOND wrong in 2003. Why in the world would you think they are right now?
Here is what I know: Bush is leading in OH, FL, IA, WI, and MN; he is VERY CLOSE in PA and, yes, NJ. In many of these states, the legal teams have already been assigned to deal with the challenges and fraud!!! The Bush team is that confident.
The only one I'm not real confident about is MI, and yet Francois is having to make a last-minute stop there. Does that sound reasonable?? Folks, at some point you need to just put this crap out of your minds and LET US ON THE GROUND DO OUR JOBS.
I feel like our motto ought to be, "REMEMBER WAYNE ALLARD!" The MSM polls had him down 5% in CO in 2002 and he won by 5%. They were off in a state senate race that they had polled a dozen times by 10% points!!!
Now, either everything I'm seeing, hearing, and being told on the ground is a lie, or the polls are right. You decide.
35
posted on
10/31/2004 5:24:11 PM PST
by
LS
To: monkeyshine
According to Gallup's #'s Bush still gets 270 Electoral votes. Before everyone totally freaks out they are suicidal over at DU with this poll. They think it is as much a jole as we do. Notice Galluo gives Penn. Wisconsin. and Iowa to Bush. That evens out losing Ohio and Florida. Gallup has gome nuts.
36
posted on
10/31/2004 5:24:12 PM PST
by
GOP
To: montereyp1
Screw the polls. BUSH WILL WIN ON ELECTION DAY! NO CONTEST!
37
posted on
10/31/2004 5:24:52 PM PST
by
BlindGuardian
(Re-elect George W. Bush! ...Do it NOW! Re-elect him NOW! ....Go! Go vote! NOW!)
To: montereyp1
This numbers can't be right--- this bucks the trend of Bush momentum everyone knows is out there. You can sense the Bush momentum.....
38
posted on
10/31/2004 5:25:24 PM PST
by
Porterville
(NEED SOME WOOD?)
To: montereyp1
Tradesports.com where people risk their money and has traditionally been much more accurate then the polls, has Bush at 55 and Kerry at 45. A monumental TEN POINT difference.
What's up?
39
posted on
10/31/2004 5:25:47 PM PST
by
Rightone
To: GOP
What it does tell us...that if bush wins ohio and florida as we expect him too...then this could be a blowout if he picks up penn, wisconisn etc. Then it would make sense.
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