Posted on 10/31/2004 5:14:39 PM PST by montereyp1
Just released on CNN.
NO!
Bush is up in PA but down in OHIO AND FLA?
ROFLMAO!!!
Gallup playing with some #'s
Poll: Bush, Kerry in near-deadlock
By Randy Lilleston, USATODAY.com
WASHINGTON — President Bush and John Kerry are in a near-tie in the final USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll before the 2004 election — a strong sign that this race, which has stayed close since Kerry became the likely Democratic nominee in March, will remain that way when voters go to the polls Tuesday.
Bush gets 49% and Kerry gets 47% among likely voters in the poll, which was conducted Friday-Sunday. Three percent offered no opinion. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points, meaning Bush does not have a clear lead. Ralph Nader failed to break the 1% threshold, as all other candidates as a group drew a single percentage point of support.
The poll used a sample of 2,014 national adults — a larger sample than past polls, which reduces the margin of error. In addition, in this final poll, Gallup used a statistical model to allocate undecided voters to the candidates. Using that model, the race is in a 49%-49% tie, with Nader getting 1% and all other candidates also receiving 1%.
The closeness of the 2004 election also is reflected in a number of USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup polls in so-called battleground states. Polls of likely voters in those states were as follows:
• Florida: Kerry with 49%, Bush with 46%.
• Ohio: Kerry 50%, Bush 46%.
• Pennsylvania: Bush 50%, Kerry 46%.
• Iowa: Bush 48%, Kerry 46%.
• Minnesota: Kerry leading Bush, 52%-44%.
• Wisconsin: Bush leading Kerry, 52%-44%.
All state polls concluded Sunday and had an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points.
The swing in the Florida results are perhaps the most dramatic. There have been six USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup polls in the state since mid-July, and this is the first one to give Kerry an advantage. However, that gap is still within the margin of error.
The poll also reflected some changes in the way presidential elections are held. Seventeen percent of registered voters in the survey said they already had cast a presidential ballot in the election, and another 4% planned to do so before Election Day.
In other results from the poll:
• Bush had a 51-46 approval/disapproval rating from likely voters, with 3% expressing no opinion. That keeps him above the crucial 50% that often spells trouble for incumbents, but it is a three-point drop from a survey a week ago. But when likely voters were asked if they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the nation's direction, 46% said they were satisfied and 52% were dissatisfied. Fifty-three percent of likely voters said they had a favorable opinion of Bush and 45% said it was unfavorable; Kerry's numbers on the issue were 51-46.
• Thirty-one percent of likely voters listed terrorism as their top issue — a result that may be favorable to the president. It was followed by the situation in Iraq at 28%, the economy at 27% and health care at 12%. Voters indicated they felt Bush would perform better on terrorism and the situation in Iraq, and Kerry would perform better on the economy.
• 48% of likely voters said they were likely to vote for the Democrat in their local congressional elections, and 47% said they would pick a Republican. In the past, the results often have come close to the post-election Democratic-Republican breakdown in the House. That was not the case in 2000, though, when Republicans kept a slim House majority even though Democrats held a four-point advantage on this question in the final poll.
Link?
AAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!LOL
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Yeah right. Guess I am just going to have to make sure I go vote on Nov. 2nd.
I find it hard to believe Kerry is up that big in some of those states. If he is up that big, how is it 49-49? LOL what a joke.
God, i hope this is wrong.
Let me summarize: Crazy.
Was that a Deaniac moment?
This is total BS! Bush is up in florida and ohio. What the hell!
If this were the final, and Bush carried the states generally attributed to him, PA, WI and IA as seen here on Gallup would put him over the top. These polls spell Bush victory.
CNN broke the undecideds for Kerry-Garbage poll Ignore
These battleground numbers are hilarious.
These are WEEKEND POLLS FOLKS!!!
Where would Gallup's breakdown leave the Electoral vote count, assuming all the states not mentioned (non-battleground) go where expected?
Have they released the internals yet?
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