Musharraf: Bargaining with the Opposition?

STRATFOR ^ | November 22, 2004 2359 GMT

[Axion]

Summary

Pakistani authorities Nov. 22 released on bail the husband of the country's top opposition politician. Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's regime likely will try to use this decision to co-opt the secular opposition. Given the circumstances of the release, it is unlikely that a deal will be struck between the opposition and Islamabad.

Analysis

Asif A. Zardari was released on bail Nov. 22 after being in prison since 1996 on corruption charges. Zardari is the husband of two-time former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who also leads the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). While the media is rife with speculation that Zardari's release was the result of a deal, the granting of bail took place because Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's government, realizing it was running out of legal options and it could reap possible political benefits, decided to let Zardari out. Regardless of the circumstances, Islamabad will try to turn Zardari's release into a goodwill gesture to secure some sort of accommodation with the PPP -- Pakistan's largest opposition party.

Islamabad will probably be disappointed. A deal is not likely, given that Zardari's wife and her party see his release as a victory. Furthermore, knowing that Musharraf is trying to build a consensus for a major anti-al Qaeda operation involving U.S. troops in the spring, the PPP is likely to drive a hard bargain.

Stratfor recently pointed out that Musharraf's regime was involved in backchannel negotiations with the PPP, and that such negotiations would be difficult and unlikely to lead to any agreement any time soon. It appears that this continues to be the case.

Sources close to the PPP and familiar with the issue say Zardari's release is not the result of any pre-arranged deal. Rather, the government could no longer deny Zardari bail on technical grounds. After rejecting 18 separate bail applications, the Musharraf regime had exhausted all legal options. Each time a new petition for bail was brought up by Zardari's defense team, the prosecution would bring forth a new charge. Other tactics included hearings being postponed for months, while the law requires a hearing to be called within two weeks of the application's filing.

Now that Zardari has been released, Musharraf is hoping he can use this as a way to sweeten the prospects of working out a deal by which the PPP as an opposition force can be contained, but that is not likely to happen. Zardari's eight-year incarceration has him, his family and his party bitter -- and since his release is perceived as a victory, Bhutto and the PPP will not feel an immediate urge to cut a deal.

Musharraf wants to secure support from the PPP and the secular Alliance for Restoration for Democracy (ARD), of which the PPP is the largest component party, in his efforts to cooperate with Washington in an upcoming assault against al Qaeda -- especially since the Islamist Mutahiddah Majlis-i-Amal alliance likely will oppose any major military action in Pakistan involving U.S. forces.

Another major problem for Musharraf is that the ARD support comes at a price. The ARD will require that Musharraf allow Bhutto and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan and an active political life. This would be too big of a price, and Musharraf will use the pending cases against Zardari to pressure his opponents into making a deal.

Though Zardari has been released, it is unlikely that his party can make much political headway without his wife's return from exile in Dubai. It is also too early to say whether that will happen soon -- but Bhutto's return from exile and freedom to engage in politics likely will be the next item in any negotiations between the government and the PPP.