Hurricane Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 20 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Rita is in the Florida Straits, impacting the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for numerous portions of South Florida. Check local weather statements for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

WTVJ-TV/DT Miami (NBC6)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (CBS 4)
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (Fox)

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[james_f_hall]

Prolly Celia

[raygun]

The Coriolis force is an apparent vector, it is an illusion to account for the motion of air and the rotation of the earth. The pressure gradient is also a vector (having a magnitude and a direction). The addition of vectors using the parallelogram method will result in a new vector, i.e., the sum of the magnitudes, and the trigonometic solution of the directions. The sum of these vectors is called the geostrophic wind. The only place where the Coriolis affect is zero is at the Inter Tropical Convergence zone.

The intertropical convergence zone is the boundary of ascending air that circumnavigates the globe, and denotes the abutting Hadley Cells, a component of the theoretical idealized model of global scale circulation of the atmosphere

However, if High pressure flows across the equator on its way to the ITCZ, it will still experience a Coriolis affect (in fact air flowing across the equator experiences its greatest apparent Coriolis affect there, because the velocity of the earth's surface relative to the wind's vector has the greatest differential).

ONLY at the ITCZ is the Corriolis affect actually zero. This is the boundary of advection/convergance and convection/divergence (depending whether at the surface or at altitude this occurs), therefor no apparent Corriolis force can exist at the ITCZ. In an ideal world the ITCZ would be at the equator, but it usually isn't.

[steve86]

Generators for sale are near nonexistent in the greater Houston area.

I noticed that, even here, in Washington State, Lowes and HD are out of generators, having been shipped to stores nearer LA and MS. Doesn't sound like the shelves will be replenished anytime soon.

I am just about to order a tri-fuel conversion kit for my Generacs (gasoline, LP, and natural gas). Maximum fuel flexibility is really important. Would make me even happier if these particular generators would accept diesel, but of course that is physically impossible.

If I had a place to put it I would be purchasing an old-fashioned Lister diesel motor and head. At 600-800 RPM they'll run for years on end without significant mechanical wear.

[numberonepal]

As early as August 25th LBAR had the westernmost second land fall for Katrina. At this point Katrina was just about to make landfall in FL.

Another run of the models later that afternoon shows LBAR predicting a second lanfall at Venice, LA and then again on the MS/AL border. Other models also called the MS/AL border for second landfall.

Later that same day LBAR shifts left again with second landfall at Terrebonne Parish, then through NOLA, across the lake and into MS.

An early morning run on the 26th has LBAR as a far western outlier with second landfall at St. Mary Parish and through Lafayette.

Five hours later on the 26th LBAR is nearly spot on with the center of the storm passing to the east of NOLA. All other models were calling Pensacola and Panama City, FL.

Late on the 26th everybody shifts west with GDFL being right on the money for the future strike.

By mid-day on the 28th pretty much every model was converging on the NOLA hit. UKMET and NHC still wanted Moss Point/Pascagoula, MS. UKMET held out till early morning on the 29th to converge.

[johnb838]

It is scary that we are starting to look at hurricanes as if a storm ain't nuthin if it ain't a cat 4 or above.

[OB1kNOb]

"FWIW, a person does NOT want to be on the Northeast side of a hurricane because of it's counter-clockwise motion. The safe side, and that's a relative term, is West of the eye of circulation and obviously the further the better. I'd rather be 100 miles West of the eye than to be 150 miles Norhtheast of it......hope that helps!"

This does help. Based on the latest projected path, I guess if Rita wobbles a little more east, then Conroe could find itself in the northeast side of trouble. Thanks. - OB1

[Palladin]

Would you loot a case of Heineken's for me, please, while you're at it?

;)

[Types_with_Fist]

CNN: Weather Service Says "Cat4 by Noon on Wednesday."

[eastforker]

Fin and Feather Marina?

[tiredoflaundry]

"Cat4 by Noon on Wednesday."

cripes!

[Prolifeconservative]

"Maximum sustained winds 100 mph. Minimum central pressure 973 mb."

Max winds haven't changed from last report. Do you know what the central pressure was at the 2pm advisory?

[meyer]

Good list, TXBSAFH, but don't forget matches or a lighter or two.

[4everontheRight]

Just for info purposes:

Be sure to not forget to pack any and all important papers such as insurance, wills, bank account info., etc. If possible, take photos of the inside and outside of your home for insurance purposes. Bring essential phone numbers with you as well...insurance agents, etc. Also, pick up things you would normally leave laying on the floor and stack them if possible. My sister lost some small antiques and wishes now she had done this.

My family just went through Katrina and one of the biggest issues was cash. My sister banks with a bank in NO which she was unable to access her accounts due to the bank being off line so be sure to get plenty of cash.

On a side note as well....she has 2 dogs and her vet's office was destroyed. She had no record of shots, etc for her dogs so if you have pets this may be something to consider. Your own medical info is important too.

[SE Mom]

Nagin and Blanco on. They sound like they've been briefed on how to speak to the public.

[DrewsMum]

wow CNN weather service is so smart,,,,,(gag) i swear i don't know what they pay these guys for,,,is that not a given,,,yesterday this dumb storm wasn't suppose to be a 2 until thurs and now they have a "revelation" now that the thing jumped so fast this morning,,,,I have a an ex-broken arm that can tell you more about the weather than these weather guys sometimes---

[shield]

Didn't old Danny Rather 'cause of Carla get him his boost to national prominence...so how many yrs did we have to suffer from the affects of Carla? 44 years...Now, I'd say that was one bad hurricane...LOL

[DrewsMum]

it was 979 right?

[james_f_hall]

lets hope it moves faster than Katrina. Katrina kept going through EWRC that expanded the windfield. We don't need a 240mile path of hurricane force winds slamming into the Texas coast. Even King Ranch wouldn't be big enough to absorb the entirety of that impact! A smaller more compact 4 is better than a big wide tightly wound CAT3 imo.

[fatnotlazy]

Looks at least like DFW could get some rain from Rita. We need it.

***

Be careful what you wish for. We needed rain last year when Ivan hit...we got flooded.

But I pray that everyone who is dry gets some needed moisture. Just so y'all stay safe.

[blam]

"10 gallons of gas in cans, full tanks in all vehicles "

You better make that 50 gallons if you're running a generator.