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Skip to comments.Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part VI
Posted on 09/23/2005 9:39:06 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Dangerous Hurricane Rita is expected to make landfall in the northeast Gulf of Mexico within 24 hours. Tornados have spawned in Louisiana. Water is filling the Ninth Ward of New Orleans again. A bus carrying elderly evacuees was gutted by fire this morning outside Dallas, with multiple fatalities. Television crews have positioned their hurricane reporters throughout the region to attain maximum drama effects. Whoooooa.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Rita Forecast Track Archive
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Jefferson Co TX NWS Weather
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail
Lake Charles Long Range Radar Still image, with loop link
Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar Still image, with loop link
Lake Charles Experimental Radar Outages and Delays May Occur
Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
KPLC-TV/DT Lake Charles/Lafayette
FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.
|Category||Wind Speed||Barometric Pressure||Storm Surge||Damage Potential|
|< 39 mph
< 34 kts
|39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
|74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
|28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
|4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
|Minimal damage to vegetation|
|96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
|28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
|6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
|Moderate damage to houses|
|111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
|27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
|9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
|Extensive damage to small buildings|
|131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
|27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
|13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
|Extreme structural damage|
|Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
|Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
|Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
|Catastrophic building failures possible|
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18
Let's see, if the storm is catastrophic, as Katrina was, we want to know why all those idiots didn't listen and evacuate, and we also want to know why La. officials didn't call for an earlier evacuation.
If on the other hand Katrina had fallen apart, people would have been making fun of Nagin and others for panicking.
Which is it?
Oh come on...Dr. Frank DOES NOT want people to let down their guard. He's not fudging what he's seeing. He has yrs of experience and the behaver of hurricanes. He wants people to GET REAL at HOW dangerous this hurricane is. Why do you think he came in early today? He's the hurricane specialist...continuing to teach his team. I wish Dan Meador was also forecasting during this hurricane...he's the other one I trust at KHOU, David Paul is improving...but Frank and Meador are the best.
Keep those prayers coming!
The 11 o'clock discussion has said that:
Upper-air data shows that the high pressure system controlling the
motion of the hurricane is already north and east of Rita and is
centered over Arkansas and Tennessee. Consequently...Rita has turned
more to the northwest and is now moving 310 degrees at 9 knots. No
significant change in track is anticipated before landfall near the
Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast early Saturday.
I personally am expecting landfall, if nothing else changes, near the mouth of the Sabine, not sure if it's going to be on the TX or LA side...This is what I said yesterday morning, and I don't have much reason to change it. Wobbles happen, but that's a good landmark to look at, I think.
Oh yeah, just as sharp as ever.
steve lyons on TWC now - saying the eye landfall will be on the LA side of the border - but it will be close.
In southwest Houston (Bellaire).
The wind kicks up a little, then it gets real still.
I am very happy that we made the decision to stay put. Have heard horror stories of people trying to get out of the City, and having to GIVE UP and return home -- after being their car 15 hours.
Rita now a 3.
FNC news alert: Rita is now a CAT 3
Rita now Cat 3 per Fox. Fox news alerts are making me nervous.
Cat 3 - still packing a huge punch, but much better than a Cat 5.
Is that a good (relatively--of course) place for landfall?
Every little bit helps.
Patient - like a zen spider...
please stop by and hit this poll on the lower right side.
Check out the answers!
for Houston and Galveston it is very good news.
12:42 P.M. - WWL-TV pictures show water overwhelming the Lower Ninth ward with waters rushing into streets and homes. Officials said they believe no one remains in that area.
at least the alert this time was a good one!
I was in Picayune, MS last weekend helping with the cleanup. Didn't see a single mosquito. Tons of "Love Bugs" though. Had to stop twice on the way back to clean the windshield.
Maybe I got too excited about what looks like sognificant weakening, nice trend though. :) If it holds.
|Who should get the biggest blame for high gasoline prices?|
|Greedy oil companies||
|Misguided environmentalists for blocking new oil production and refinery construction||
|Wasteful and indifferent Americans who insist on driving gas-guzzling SUVs and pickups||
Total Replies : 703
That is, if you like New Orleans. Kidding...just kidding...
LOL! do you mean Lady Bugs?
Please DON'T be lulled into thinking this is "only" a category 3 storm now! As with Katrina, the storm surge of this hurricane is already developed at a Category 4 level and will be huge. There is very little difference between sustained winds of 125 (Category 3) and 135 (Category 4) mph in terms of damage to trees and buildings. Anything over 100 mph is very, very bad.
Praying hard. Glad it is weakening!
You can do better? Storms change that's why they call it "fore"casting. Rita spun up faster and worse than Katrina. She had favorable shear and water temps up until yesterday mid day. She had all the markings of another catastrophic hurricane.
Also, even if she hits as only a Category 2 she's pushing a Category 5 induced storm surge. There's no where for the water to go but inland. The threat from hurricanes has always been from storm surge and inland flooding. Floyd was a 2 (corect me if I"m wrong on that) when it hit North Carolina and dozens drowned due to severe flooding.
"Over-reaction" is something arm-chair quarterbacks spwe about when they are dissapointed about wind speeds and body counts.
Hmmm. I don't see Dr. Frank as a drama queen at all. Actually, he seems to always go out of his way to be matter of fact about how dangerous these storms can be and to not let your guard down.
I voted #3. It was that or OPEC. But if I voted OPEC then I'd have to also vote Congress but that wasn't a choice. But can you believe there are actually people who think President Bush is responsible?
Wise words bump
We call 'em telephone bugs cause they say hello and hang up.
Ahhh...love bugs! Good Lord...natures way of making you scrape your window and the front of your car!
Man! Those little buggers are everywhere down there this time of year!!!
"How in the world can all the forecasters be so wrong? Supposedly a catastrophic storm! Millions evacuated! If this thing fizzles, who in their right mind would ever listen to the "hurricane" experts again?"
I don't think it will fizzle, but is now down to a Cat 3. And I don't blame the forecasters so much. Predicting the future is not easy...not even with supercomputers. However, I do agree with the "who...would ever lister to...experts again?" I think that was the same problem before Katrina. Every storm is the "Storm of the Century", and things may be bad, but nothing like Katrina damage. Everyone was too complacent before Katrina and now everyone has swung the other way...maybe too far.
every little bit helps.
Depends on the part of MI. In SE MI, it's not that rare to see snow flurries in October (although it doesn't stick till December, usually).
Now the UP is an entirely different story!
Yep. It might even be weakening early enough to not carry a surge that's well above what the category would suggest (I wouldn't count on it though).
The sats will show the cloud cover over the eyewall when present. It does not mean that there isn't an eye. What you see in the sat pics is from a very high elevation. Take a look at the doppler loops, and you'll see that the eye is still very much there.
Still praying--for MIGHTY angels!
"fizzle" is not a word I would apply to this. its weakening somewhat.
Thanks, the eye is as plain as day on that one image. :/
Just came home to hear the wonderful FNC announcement -- CAT 3 --- weakening. CAT 111 - 130 mph. Sure beats the CAT 4 & 5 stuff.
I remember those when I lived in Picayune back in the 70s. They would cover the whole front of your car.
Train derailment in N.O. . .
That is the question. I'm pretty sure, speaking for myself, that if I had evacuated my home and sat on a highway for umpteen hours and then find out that it was all for naught...next time, I would stay put. And probably drown or get blown to bits!
I was/am naive about hurricane forecasting. I thought it was more precise. I am very thankful that the worse case scenario isn't going to happen. I hope all the experts were mistaken and Rita turns into a TS and bothers nobody.
The msm covers every event as if it was the last "similar" event.They are clueless.