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Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part VI
NHC - NOAA ^ | 23 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 09/23/2005 9:39:06 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Dangerous Hurricane Rita is expected to make landfall in the northeast Gulf of Mexico within 24 hours. Tornados have spawned in Louisiana. Water is filling the Ninth Ward of New Orleans again. A bus carrying elderly evacuees was gutted by fire this morning outside Dallas, with multiple fatalities. Television crews have positioned their hurricane reporters throughout the region to attain maximum drama effects. Whoooooa.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Jefferson Co TX NWS Weather
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:


Lake Charles Long Range Radar Still image, with loop link
Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar Still image, with loop link
Lake Charles Experimental Radar Outages and Delays May Occur

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston
KPRC-TV/DT Houston
KTRK-TV/DT Houston
KTRH-AM Houston
KPLC-TV/DT Lake Charles/Lafayette
KSLA-TV/DT Shreveport

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter

KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: hurricane; rita; tropical
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To: Jrabbit

Let's see, if the storm is catastrophic, as Katrina was, we want to know why all those idiots didn't listen and evacuate, and we also want to know why La. officials didn't call for an earlier evacuation.

If on the other hand Katrina had fallen apart, people would have been making fun of Nagin and others for panicking.

Which is it?


351 posted on 09/23/2005 10:50:20 AM PDT by Gone GF
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To: TXBSAFH

Oh come on...Dr. Frank DOES NOT want people to let down their guard. He's not fudging what he's seeing. He has yrs of experience and the behaver of hurricanes. He wants people to GET REAL at HOW dangerous this hurricane is. Why do you think he came in early today? He's the hurricane specialist...continuing to teach his team. I wish Dan Meador was also forecasting during this hurricane...he's the other one I trust at KHOU, David Paul is improving...but Frank and Meador are the best.


352 posted on 09/23/2005 10:50:23 AM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: oceanview

Keep those prayers coming!


353 posted on 09/23/2005 10:50:41 AM PDT by milagro
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To: steveegg

The 11 o'clock discussion has said that:

Upper-air data shows that the high pressure system controlling the
motion of the hurricane is already north and east of Rita and is
centered over Arkansas and Tennessee. Consequently...Rita has turned
more to the northwest and is now moving 310 degrees at 9 knots. No
significant change in track is anticipated before landfall near the
Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast early Saturday.


I personally am expecting landfall, if nothing else changes, near the mouth of the Sabine, not sure if it's going to be on the TX or LA side...This is what I said yesterday morning, and I don't have much reason to change it. Wobbles happen, but that's a good landmark to look at, I think.


354 posted on 09/23/2005 10:51:20 AM PDT by Knitting A Conundrum (Act Justly, Love Mercy, and Walk Humbly With God Micah 6:8)
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To: gov_bean_ counter

Oh yeah, just as sharp as ever.


355 posted on 09/23/2005 10:51:41 AM PDT by Double Tap
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To: steveegg

steve lyons on TWC now - saying the eye landfall will be on the LA side of the border - but it will be close.


356 posted on 09/23/2005 10:51:47 AM PDT by oceanview
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To: kassie

In southwest Houston (Bellaire).

The wind kicks up a little, then it gets real still.

I am very happy that we made the decision to stay put. Have heard horror stories of people trying to get out of the City, and having to GIVE UP and return home -- after being their car 15 hours.

Uggggggh!


357 posted on 09/23/2005 10:51:54 AM PDT by i_dont_chat (Our President's intervention saved lives during Katrina.)
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To: Gone GF

Rita now a 3.


358 posted on 09/23/2005 10:52:16 AM PDT by frankjr
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To: 2harddrive
LOL...appears even the blk muslim's are now putting out that garbage.
359 posted on 09/23/2005 10:52:23 AM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: i_dont_chat

FNC news alert: Rita is now a CAT 3


360 posted on 09/23/2005 10:52:26 AM PDT by cgk (When the BIG ONE wipes out Hollywood can we call it Bush's Fault instead of the San Andreas Fault?)
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To: RDTF

Rita now Cat 3 per Fox. Fox news alerts are making me nervous.


361 posted on 09/23/2005 10:52:40 AM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (If you still vote Democrat, you're still stuck on stupid!)
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To: steveegg

Cat 3 - still packing a huge punch, but much better than a Cat 5.


362 posted on 09/23/2005 10:52:48 AM PDT by LikeLight
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To: Knitting A Conundrum

Is that a good (relatively--of course) place for landfall?


363 posted on 09/23/2005 10:52:56 AM PDT by milagro
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To: steveegg
Maximum sustained winds 125 mph. Minimum central pressure 931 mb.

Every little bit helps.

364 posted on 09/23/2005 10:52:59 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: RedBloodedAmerican

Patient - like a zen spider...


365 posted on 09/23/2005 10:53:05 AM PDT by Tennessee_Bob ("Nac Mac Feegle! The Wee Free Men! Nae king! Nae quin! Nae laird! We willna be fooled again!")
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To: cgk

its weakening.


366 posted on 09/23/2005 10:53:23 AM PDT by oceanview
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To: NautiNurse

Amen.

placemark.


367 posted on 09/23/2005 10:53:39 AM PDT by cgk (When the BIG ONE wipes out Hollywood can we call it Bush's Fault instead of the San Andreas Fault?)
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To: All
While you are waiting for the current status,

please stop by and hit this poll on the lower right side.

Check out the answers!


368 posted on 09/23/2005 10:53:47 AM PDT by RedBloodedAmerican
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To: milagro

for Houston and Galveston it is very good news.


369 posted on 09/23/2005 10:53:53 AM PDT by oceanview
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To: All
12:45 P.M. - WWL-TV Reporter Bill Capo said a second breach of the levee near the Industrial Canal has occurred, though officials said they haven't been able to get to the site to examine it.

12:42 P.M. - WWL-TV pictures show water overwhelming the Lower Ninth ward with waters rushing into streets and homes. Officials said they believe no one remains in that area.

370 posted on 09/23/2005 10:54:08 AM PDT by rit
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To: sheikdetailfeather

at least the alert this time was a good one!


371 posted on 09/23/2005 10:54:11 AM PDT by RDTF
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To: RedBloodedAmerican

I was in Picayune, MS last weekend helping with the cleanup. Didn't see a single mosquito. Tons of "Love Bugs" though. Had to stop twice on the way back to clean the windshield.


372 posted on 09/23/2005 10:54:19 AM PDT by esarlls3
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Maybe I got too excited about what looks like sognificant weakening, nice trend though. :) If it holds.


373 posted on 09/23/2005 10:54:37 AM PDT by No Blue States (FW)
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To: RedBloodedAmerican
Who should get the biggest blame for high gasoline prices?
Greedy oil companies
281
(39.97%)
George Bush
133
(18.92%)
Misguided environmentalists for blocking new oil production and refinery construction
142
(20.20%)
Wasteful and indifferent Americans who insist on driving gas-guzzling SUVs and pickups
95
(13.51%)
Congress
9
(1.28%)
OPEC
32
(4.55%)
Somebody else
11
(1.56%)
 
Total Replies : 703

374 posted on 09/23/2005 10:55:00 AM PDT by cgk (When the BIG ONE wipes out Hollywood can we call it Bush's Fault instead of the San Andreas Fault?)
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To: NautiNurse

That is, if you like New Orleans. Kidding...just kidding...


375 posted on 09/23/2005 10:55:15 AM PDT by RedBloodedAmerican
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To: esarlls3

LOL! do you mean Lady Bugs?


376 posted on 09/23/2005 10:55:52 AM PDT by RDTF
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To: No Blue States
That eye size what the NOAA hunters found in their latest trip in (eye fix at noon; satellite pic was at 11:45 am). While the eye is becoming less apparent on the satellite, it's still around across on the Lake Charles radar
377 posted on 09/23/2005 10:55:52 AM PDT by steveegg ($3.00 a gallon is the price you pay for ANWR! Start drilling or stop whining! - HT Falcon4.0)
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To: Lorraine
You said:I was almost expecting him to ask that idiot reporter if he was stuck on stupid. I really wish he had!

I said: It's President Bush's MO is to stay above the fray and let the journalists look like the fools that they are. It's General Honore's MO to throw out the S.O.S's to let the journalists look like the fools that they are.

I add:Which is not to say President Bush wasn't thinking it.
378 posted on 09/23/2005 10:55:54 AM PDT by uncitizen
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To: sheikdetailfeather

Please DON'T be lulled into thinking this is "only" a category 3 storm now! As with Katrina, the storm surge of this hurricane is already developed at a Category 4 level and will be huge. There is very little difference between sustained winds of 125 (Category 3) and 135 (Category 4) mph in terms of damage to trees and buildings. Anything over 100 mph is very, very bad.


379 posted on 09/23/2005 10:56:08 AM PDT by Dems_R_Losers (2,4,6,8 - a burka makes me look overweight!)
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To: RDTF

Praying hard. Glad it is weakening!


380 posted on 09/23/2005 10:56:11 AM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (If you still vote Democrat, you're still stuck on stupid!)
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To: Jrabbit

You can do better? Storms change that's why they call it "fore"casting. Rita spun up faster and worse than Katrina. She had favorable shear and water temps up until yesterday mid day. She had all the markings of another catastrophic hurricane.

Also, even if she hits as only a Category 2 she's pushing a Category 5 induced storm surge. There's no where for the water to go but inland. The threat from hurricanes has always been from storm surge and inland flooding. Floyd was a 2 (corect me if I"m wrong on that) when it hit North Carolina and dozens drowned due to severe flooding.

"Over-reaction" is something arm-chair quarterbacks spwe about when they are dissapointed about wind speeds and body counts.


381 posted on 09/23/2005 10:56:16 AM PDT by brothers4thID (Do you stand with us, or are you going to just stand in the way?)
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To: TXBSAFH

Hmmm. I don't see Dr. Frank as a drama queen at all. Actually, he seems to always go out of his way to be matter of fact about how dangerous these storms can be and to not let your guard down.


382 posted on 09/23/2005 10:56:30 AM PDT by Aggie Mama (Cypress, in NW Houston)
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To: brothers4thID

new placemark.


383 posted on 09/23/2005 10:56:51 AM PDT by cgk (When the BIG ONE wipes out Hollywood can we call it Bush's Fault instead of the San Andreas Fault?)
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To: cgk

I voted #3. It was that or OPEC. But if I voted OPEC then I'd have to also vote Congress but that wasn't a choice. But can you believe there are actually people who think President Bush is responsible?


384 posted on 09/23/2005 10:56:55 AM PDT by RedBloodedAmerican
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To: Dems_R_Losers

Wise words bump


385 posted on 09/23/2005 10:57:11 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: esarlls3

We call 'em telephone bugs cause they say hello and hang up.


386 posted on 09/23/2005 10:57:13 AM PDT by txhurl (Is Rita falling apart?)
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To: esarlls3

Ahhh...love bugs! Good Lord...natures way of making you scrape your window and the front of your car!

Man! Those little buggers are everywhere down there this time of year!!!


387 posted on 09/23/2005 10:57:15 AM PDT by 4everontheRight (Born/raised on MS beaches (SC now)...Criminals feed on the indulgence of society's understanding)
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To: Jrabbit

"How in the world can all the forecasters be so wrong? Supposedly a catastrophic storm! Millions evacuated! If this thing fizzles, who in their right mind would ever listen to the "hurricane" experts again?"

I don't think it will fizzle, but is now down to a Cat 3. And I don't blame the forecasters so much. Predicting the future is not easy...not even with supercomputers. However, I do agree with the "who...would ever lister to...experts again?" I think that was the same problem before Katrina. Every storm is the "Storm of the Century", and things may be bad, but nothing like Katrina damage. Everyone was too complacent before Katrina and now everyone has swung the other way...maybe too far.


388 posted on 09/23/2005 10:57:19 AM PDT by frankjr
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To: Dems_R_Losers

every little bit helps.


389 posted on 09/23/2005 10:57:21 AM PDT by oceanview
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To: queenkathy; hummingbird

Depends on the part of MI. In SE MI, it's not that rare to see snow flurries in October (although it doesn't stick till December, usually).

Now the UP is an entirely different story!


390 posted on 09/23/2005 10:57:25 AM PDT by Zechariah_8_13 (Just North of Austin)
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To: NautiNurse
Every little bit helps.

Yep. It might even be weakening early enough to not carry a surge that's well above what the category would suggest (I wouldn't count on it though).

391 posted on 09/23/2005 10:57:51 AM PDT by steveegg ($3.00 a gallon is the price you pay for ANWR! Start drilling or stop whining! - HT Falcon4.0)
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To: No Blue States
Old data imo. Is this eye 30 nm?

The sats will show the cloud cover over the eyewall when present. It does not mean that there isn't an eye. What you see in the sat pics is from a very high elevation. Take a look at the doppler loops, and you'll see that the eye is still very much there.

392 posted on 09/23/2005 10:57:51 AM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: oceanview
OK--that is good news. How about populations around Beaumont and E LA--is there a place (Shep was talking about this yesterday) where there is a lot of "swampland" as he called it--marshes, or whatever--that it would be "good" for Rita to land at? Only place in TX I've been to is El Paso--where my son is stationed at Ft. Bliss--so pardon my ignorance.

Still praying--for MIGHTY angels!

393 posted on 09/23/2005 10:57:56 AM PDT by milagro
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To: frankjr

"fizzle" is not a word I would apply to this. its weakening somewhat.


394 posted on 09/23/2005 10:58:14 AM PDT by oceanview
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To: steveegg

Thanks, the eye is as plain as day on that one image. :/


395 posted on 09/23/2005 10:58:51 AM PDT by No Blue States (FW)
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To: NautiNurse


Just came home to hear the wonderful FNC announcement -- CAT 3 --- weakening. CAT 111 - 130 mph. Sure beats the CAT 4 & 5 stuff.


396 posted on 09/23/2005 10:58:52 AM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: esarlls3
Tons of "Love Bugs" though. Had to stop twice on the way back to clean the windshield.

I remember those when I lived in Picayune back in the 70s. They would cover the whole front of your car.

397 posted on 09/23/2005 10:59:02 AM PDT by dfwgator (Flower Mound, TX)
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To: oceanview

Train derailment in N.O. . .

per scanner


398 posted on 09/23/2005 10:59:05 AM PDT by LikeLight
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To: Gone GF

That is the question. I'm pretty sure, speaking for myself, that if I had evacuated my home and sat on a highway for umpteen hours and then find out that it was all for naught...next time, I would stay put. And probably drown or get blown to bits!

I was/am naive about hurricane forecasting. I thought it was more precise. I am very thankful that the worse case scenario isn't going to happen. I hope all the experts were mistaken and Rita turns into a TS and bothers nobody.


399 posted on 09/23/2005 10:59:05 AM PDT by Jrabbit (Kaufman County, Texas)
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To: frankjr

The msm covers every event as if it was the last "similar" event.They are clueless.


400 posted on 09/23/2005 10:59:22 AM PDT by John W
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