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Skip to comments.Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part VI
Posted on 09/23/2005 9:39:06 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Dangerous Hurricane Rita is expected to make landfall in the northeast Gulf of Mexico within 24 hours. Tornados have spawned in Louisiana. Water is filling the Ninth Ward of New Orleans again. A bus carrying elderly evacuees was gutted by fire this morning outside Dallas, with multiple fatalities. Television crews have positioned their hurricane reporters throughout the region to attain maximum drama effects. Whoooooa.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Rita Forecast Track Archive
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Jefferson Co TX NWS Weather
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail
Lake Charles Long Range Radar Still image, with loop link
Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar Still image, with loop link
Lake Charles Experimental Radar Outages and Delays May Occur
Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
KPLC-TV/DT Lake Charles/Lafayette
FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.
|Category||Wind Speed||Barometric Pressure||Storm Surge||Damage Potential|
|< 39 mph
< 34 kts
|39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
|74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
|28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
|4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
|Minimal damage to vegetation|
|96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
|28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
|6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
|Moderate damage to houses|
|111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
|27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
|9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
|Extensive damage to small buildings|
|131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
|27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
|13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
|Extreme structural damage|
|Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
|Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
|Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
|Catastrophic building failures possible|
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18
The State DOT says that the I-45 South Service Road is still taking southbound traffic in Montgomery County, even if I-45 South is closed.
"Is the Cat3 forecast too high now?
Nope. The 10 am advisory had her at the border between a Cat 3 and Cat 4. The intermediary should be out in about 10-15 minutes."
It will be an interesting one, please ping me to it.
I hope so! All that flooding they will need to spray and spray if they weren't blown away. I think they should spray anyway.
Does he still have the crew cut?
I think that you are looking at a local radar that isn't powerfull enough to see the whole storm and is only getting the coastal side.
Try one of the satillite images at the top of the thread.
Man Who Fled Katrina Shot Dead in TN
The Fox weather guy saying she could weaken to a 2. Much better than a 4? Or would there still be flooding?
"They were expected the Houston refineries to be pummelled....it doesnt appear that way."
And it will be great if they are not. But it will be days before they are up and going again at full steam. Texas just used a whole lot of Gas to get out. And they will use a lot of Gas to come back. If we don't have a Gas shortage in at least the short term then someone has been lying to us about why we have been paying more than $3.00 for Gas and $2.70 for Heating oil. The only way we could not have a shortage is if we never had one in the first place.
" Eye now 30 nm wide (was 28) and open on the southeast (was closed)"
Old data imo. Is this eye 30 nm?
...Rita on a slow weakening trend...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain ...And from south of Port O'Connor to Port Aransas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 1 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 27.8 north...longitude 92.2 west or about 190 miles southeast of Galveston Texas and about 175 miles southeast of Port Arthur Texas.
Rita is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of Rita will make landfall near the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph with higher gusts. Rita is now a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A further slow weakening is possible before landfall...but Rita is still expected to come ashore as a dangerous hurricane.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles. An elevated platform on Isle denieres near the south-central Louisiana coast just reported sustained winds of 58 mph.
Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 931 mb...27.49 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 feet above normal tide levels... locally up to 20 feet at head of bays and nearby rivers...with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Tides are currently running about 2 feet above normal along the Louisiana...Mississippi and Alabama coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those areas will increase to 3 to 5 feet and be accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience coastal flooding. Large swells generated by Rita will likely affect most portions of the Gulf Coast.
Rita is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana as it moves inland. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over southeastern Louisiana including metropolitan New Orleans with isolated heavier amounts possible. Since Rita is forecast to slow down significantly after making landfall...total accumulations in excess of 25 inches are possible over the next several days across eastern Texas into western Louisiana.
Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of southeastern Texas...southern Louisiana including southern Mississippi and Alabama
repeating the 1 PM CDT position...27.8 N... 92.2 W. Movement toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph. Minimum central pressure... 931 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 PM CDT.
Let's see, if the storm is catastrophic, as Katrina was, we want to know why all those idiots didn't listen and evacuate, and we also want to know why La. officials didn't call for an earlier evacuation.
If on the other hand Katrina had fallen apart, people would have been making fun of Nagin and others for panicking.
Which is it?
Oh come on...Dr. Frank DOES NOT want people to let down their guard. He's not fudging what he's seeing. He has yrs of experience and the behaver of hurricanes. He wants people to GET REAL at HOW dangerous this hurricane is. Why do you think he came in early today? He's the hurricane specialist...continuing to teach his team. I wish Dan Meador was also forecasting during this hurricane...he's the other one I trust at KHOU, David Paul is improving...but Frank and Meador are the best.
Keep those prayers coming!
The 11 o'clock discussion has said that:
Upper-air data shows that the high pressure system controlling the
motion of the hurricane is already north and east of Rita and is
centered over Arkansas and Tennessee. Consequently...Rita has turned
more to the northwest and is now moving 310 degrees at 9 knots. No
significant change in track is anticipated before landfall near the
Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast early Saturday.
I personally am expecting landfall, if nothing else changes, near the mouth of the Sabine, not sure if it's going to be on the TX or LA side...This is what I said yesterday morning, and I don't have much reason to change it. Wobbles happen, but that's a good landmark to look at, I think.
Oh yeah, just as sharp as ever.
steve lyons on TWC now - saying the eye landfall will be on the LA side of the border - but it will be close.
In southwest Houston (Bellaire).
The wind kicks up a little, then it gets real still.
I am very happy that we made the decision to stay put. Have heard horror stories of people trying to get out of the City, and having to GIVE UP and return home -- after being their car 15 hours.
Rita now a 3.
FNC news alert: Rita is now a CAT 3