Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part VI

NHC - NOAA ^ | 23 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Dangerous Hurricane Rita is expected to make landfall in the northeast Gulf of Mexico within 24 hours. Tornados have spawned in Louisiana. Water is filling the Ninth Ward of New Orleans again. A bus carrying elderly evacuees was gutted by fire this morning outside Dallas, with multiple fatalities. Television crews have positioned their hurricane reporters throughout the region to attain maximum drama effects. Whoooooa.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Jefferson Co TX NWS Weather
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Lake Charles Long Range Radar Still image, with loop link
Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar Still image, with loop link
Lake Charles Experimental Radar Outages and Delays May Occur

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston
KPRC-TV/DT Houston
KTRK-TV/DT Houston
KTRH-AM Houston
KPLC-TV/DT Lake Charles/Lafayette
KSLA-TV/DT Shreveport

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[brothers4thID]

You can do better? Storms change that's why they call it "fore"casting. Rita spun up faster and worse than Katrina. She had favorable shear and water temps up until yesterday mid day. She had all the markings of another catastrophic hurricane.

Also, even if she hits as only a Category 2 she's pushing a Category 5 induced storm surge. There's no where for the water to go but inland. The threat from hurricanes has always been from storm surge and inland flooding. Floyd was a 2 (corect me if I"m wrong on that) when it hit North Carolina and dozens drowned due to severe flooding.

"Over-reaction" is something arm-chair quarterbacks spwe about when they are dissapointed about wind speeds and body counts.

[Aggie Mama]

Hmmm. I don't see Dr. Frank as a drama queen at all. Actually, he seems to always go out of his way to be matter of fact about how dangerous these storms can be and to not let your guard down.

[cgk]

new placemark.

[RedBloodedAmerican]

I voted #3. It was that or OPEC. But if I voted OPEC then I'd have to also vote Congress but that wasn't a choice. But can you believe there are actually people who think President Bush is responsible?

[NautiNurse]

Wise words bump

[txhurl]

We call 'em telephone bugs cause they say hello and hang up.

[4everontheRight]

Ahhh...love bugs! Good Lord...natures way of making you scrape your window and the front of your car!

Man! Those little buggers are everywhere down there this time of year!!!

[frankjr]

"How in the world can all the forecasters be so wrong? Supposedly a catastrophic storm! Millions evacuated! If this thing fizzles, who in their right mind would ever listen to the "hurricane" experts again?"

I don't think it will fizzle, but is now down to a Cat 3. And I don't blame the forecasters so much. Predicting the future is not easy...not even with supercomputers. However, I do agree with the "who...would ever lister to...experts again?" I think that was the same problem before Katrina. Every storm is the "Storm of the Century", and things may be bad, but nothing like Katrina damage. Everyone was too complacent before Katrina and now everyone has swung the other way...maybe too far.

[oceanview]

every little bit helps.

[Zechariah_8_13]

Depends on the part of MI. In SE MI, it's not that rare to see snow flurries in October (although it doesn't stick till December, usually).

Now the UP is an entirely different story!

[steveegg]

Every little bit helps.

Yep. It might even be weakening early enough to not carry a surge that's well above what the category would suggest (I wouldn't count on it though).

[numberonepal]

Old data imo. Is this eye 30 nm?

The sats will show the cloud cover over the eyewall when present. It does not mean that there isn't an eye. What you see in the sat pics is from a very high elevation. Take a look at the doppler loops, and you'll see that the eye is still very much there.

[milagro]

OK--that is good news. How about populations around Beaumont and E LA--is there a place (Shep was talking about this yesterday) where there is a lot of "swampland" as he called it--marshes, or whatever--that it would be "good" for Rita to land at? Only place in TX I've been to is El Paso--where my son is stationed at Ft. Bliss--so pardon my ignorance.

Still praying--for MIGHTY angels!

[oceanview]

"fizzle" is not a word I would apply to this. its weakening somewhat.

[No Blue States]

Thanks, the eye is as plain as day on that one image. :/

[onyx]

Just came home to hear the wonderful FNC announcement -- CAT 3 --- weakening. CAT 111 - 130 mph. Sure beats the CAT 4 & 5 stuff.

[dfwgator]

Tons of "Love Bugs" though. Had to stop twice on the way back to clean the windshield.

I remember those when I lived in Picayune back in the 70s. They would cover the whole front of your car.

[LikeLight]

Train derailment in N.O. . .

per scanner

[Jrabbit]

That is the question. I'm pretty sure, speaking for myself, that if I had evacuated my home and sat on a highway for umpteen hours and then find out that it was all for naught...next time, I would stay put. And probably drown or get blown to bits!

I was/am naive about hurricane forecasting. I thought it was more precise. I am very thankful that the worse case scenario isn't going to happen. I hope all the experts were mistaken and Rita turns into a TS and bothers nobody.

[John W]

The msm covers every event as if it was the last "similar" event.They are clueless.