Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Brad’s Gramma]

The Great Lakes are getting a storm too? Sheesh....

Thanks much for the explanation.

[mhking]

Just got word that there is a 4:45 presser scheduled with Max Mayfield of the NHC -- it looks like there will be a "major change" in the forecast track that will be reflected with the 5P update.

I'm sure the news networks will carry it; the Miami stations in the live streams I posted will most assuredly carry it.

[xcamel]

It happened exactly at the time the southwestern quad made "landfall".

If anything, it will "echo" that compression and make a westward swing.

Landfall compression will domino counterclockwise and tighten (and reinforce) the eye as it creeps toward the Yucatan.

[steveegg]

Unlike New England, we could use the rain. We're still about 8.5" behind for the year up here.

[markman46]

what no snow this weekend up your way?

[Fawn]

Yeah...the storm is stalling and the front may push it west instead of east.

[Chanticleer]

We are in Evacuation Level E -- only would evacuate in a CAT 5. The problem where I am is not that water would rise up to our house, but that water would rise all around us, leaving us stranded on our own little island.

Even if there is no flooding, we are always at risk of wind damage, fallen tree limbs, power outages, etc. which are not necessarily life-threatening but certainly inconvenient.

The problem with Pinellas is that there are only so many ways out of here. The Skyway Bridge will close in any winds... Howard Franklin and Gandy could be closed by rising water... imagine how packed the roads could get very quickly.

Personally, I'm not planning to evacuate, but if you're very uncomfortable, and you have a place to go, it might be a good time to look at the pretty fall leaves with your daughter. Better yet, wait until tomorrow to see if Wilma decides to visit Cancun instead of Florida.

[dawn53]

Stay put until you hear from our EOC. They're on top of it and will let you know when/and if you need to consider evacuation.

What evac zone are you in?

[RDTF]

Thanks for the ping. Swamped at work so just now reading the thread. This is unbelievable. Hope we don't have to talk about a hurricane 'Alpha'

[Xenophobic Alien]

[Howlin]

Thanks, steve!

[Howlin]

That is really neat!

Thanks for the heads up!

[steveegg]

Fresh Vortex Data Message -

380 
URNT12 KNHC 192017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/19:56:20Z
B. 17 deg 36 min N
  083 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2152 m
D. 65  kt
E. 122 deg 010 nm
F. 285 deg 141 kt
G. 201 deg 002 nm
H.        892  mb
I.  12 C/ 3059 m
J.  19 C/ 3051 m
K.  15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO5-10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1  nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA        OB 18
MAX FL WIND 141 KT S QUAD 19:52:00 Z

Summary -

- Pressure unchanged at 992 mb
- New Max flight-level wind (NE quad still unsampled)
- Concentric eyes at 5 nm and 10 nm wide
- Movement northwest (314 degrees) at roughly 10.8 mph

[Greg_99]

Evacuation level A

[Sax]

Mexico just got some very bad news in the last few hours. Hopefully, that will reduce the threat of a major, strong 3, 4 or 5, hurricane to SW FL (& myself on the East Coast exiting side of the earlier track.) This one is definitely full of suspense and speculation.

[steveegg]

I'm a bit too far south (south suburban Milwaukee). They're talking possible snow showers up north Saturday night (no accumilation, and whatever accumilation there is will be melted by rain the following day).

[Chanticleer]

Wow! You definitely need to move early, don't you?

News is sounding better -- may not need to worry.

[JamminJAY]

Not yet.

Here are the computer track models.

[steveegg]

I thought you'd like it.

[SE Mom]

992 mb???? Huh?

Other than that..Florida may be in the clear?