Posted on 08/15/2006 9:32:24 AM PDT by LouAvul
Rising fuel costs are being blamed for everything from soaring utility costs to lower retail sales and higher airline tickets. And now, experts say high gas prices could reshape U.S. cities.
"Most analysts believe that crude oil prices in the $50s and $60s will be with us for some time," says Stuart Gabriel, director of the Lusk Center, a think tank at the University of Southern California devoted to studying real estate forces and trends. There's even talk of crude hitting $100 per barrel -- or 10 times what it sold for in the summer of 2005.
Once the realization soaks into the American consciousness that high-cost gas is here to stay, Gabriel predicts, those high commute prices will pull more homeowners -- even young families -- to live in central cities and create a push for more public transportation.
(Excerpt) Read more at realestate.msn.com ...
A longtime leftist wet dream, with its political implications of growing Democratic power.
But it's not going to happen. People will put sails or windmills on their cars before they subject their children to the inner cities of America.
My husband spends around $18 a day for gasoline. If he could work 4 ten hour days a week or telecommute for one day, we could use the difference to up the speed on our internet AND save wear and tear on the car.
Employees should start asking and negotiating for more flexible work schedules, if they're possible. Just by altering their rush hour times by as little as an hour, a lot of gas could be saved (not to mention aggravation during construction season!)
OTOH, the "death of the suburbs" would create pressure for housing "close to work," and thus house prices would increase to the point where incremental gas costs are preferable to living closer in.
The net result, probably, is not the death of the suburbs, but rather an economic downturn stemming from people being forced to cut back on non-essentials due to lack of ready cash.
I see it as an extremely dangerous situation in the long run. In the short run, it may re-arrange the family structure to multi-generational extended families making more efficient use of suburban homes and expenses.
But like I've said before on threads, I've seen a definite trend of the professional class of small towns and rural communities and bedroom communities basically sending their kids into cities -- the seven or eight major markets after college.
I remember when PCs first came out. They didn't do much and cost a lot. They reached a cost/benefit point in the mid-90's where they gave enough bang for the buck that they became as ubiquitus as the tv in the family room. Technology, price, performance merged to make them as necessary as indoor plumbing to many americans.
The gas prices could ramp up the same set of events for telecommuting. And on a side note, with flying becoming more and more of a hassle (Imagine having to check laptops only to find the TSA people stole them), teleconferencing could make a comeback in a big way as well. In a new iteration it would be MUCH more effective than in the 90's.
I guess we'll see.
I am thinking the Micropolis envisioned by Dr. Robert Prehoda back in 1979 could actually come to pass.
I telecommute right now, and the reason is there isn't anybody in India who can do what I do, as well as I do it, for 1/10 the salary, or even for the same salary or more.
You're lucky.
Actually, this thread covers some possibilities:
http://209.157.64.201/focus/f-news/1638755/posts
I'm not moving, but I am buying a small car for commuting that gets 36 mpg. I like my big house, big yard, and great schools. Houses in my neighborhood are selling about as fast as they were a year ago. I am more affected by the high cost of natural gas in the winter than by the cost of gasoline.
I think you are absolutly right.
This will destroy the cities not the 'burbs.
The most productive people will find a way to move the best parts of their lives OUT of the cities.
In many parts of California, the liberal city councils adamantly refuse to allow high-density development, so it is a bit disingenuous if they pretend that suburban sprawl is not their fault.
Exactly. In my area, houses in 'the city' are twice as expensive as comperable or larger places 30 min away. So, if more people move to the nice parts of the city to stay close to work, that's only going to make the housing prices there go up, and make it more economical to live outside the city.
Yup. That's exactly my situation. I'm already working 10x4, so telecommuting will allow me to drive into work (~35 miles one way) will save me $48/month--more than the cost of 3.0Mbps DSL.
Because a very significant majority of the time, the guy in India is not worth what he is paid.
The size of our population has grown so much that it's almost as though we are dealing with a uniformly urban environment anyway.
I see a bright future for telecommuting. What's the sense of driving 100 miles a day on $8-a-gallon gas just so the boss can look over your shoulder? You can play FreeCell just as easily at home!
Is being stupid a requirement for being a reporter? Even if the reporter is this stupid or a blatant liar, where is the editor?
Did they think none of their readers can remember the last time oil dipped below $10? It wasn't this century.
Maple Shade NJ: This morning when I drove in, the price was down to $2.82 for regular. Whatever happened to that devastating impact the MSM was predicting from the BP Alaskan pipeline repairs?
Gas prices are not rising in my area. In fact, they're down about 20 cents over 2 weeks ago.
Go figure.
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