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Newspaper Shares Near Valuation Floor: Analyst (Dinosaur Media DeathWatch™)
Forbes ^ | August 22, 2006 | R.M. Schneiderman

Posted on 08/22/2006 11:53:09 AM PDT by abb

Newspapers stocks are near the valuation floor, but the Internet isn't likely to contribute to their growth for up to 18 months, according to a Tuesday report by Credit Suisse.

The report follows news that July advertising number for the industry declined 2.1% from a slightly positive 0.5% growth in June.

"July newspaper performance not only marks the weakest month of the year, but was also softer than April, which was hurt by the Easter shift," said Debra Schwartz, an analyst for Credit Suisse.

"With few exceptions, the companies will need a strong September to meet newspaper guidance for the quarter."

If September proves to be a lackluster month, more cost saving measures could be on the way, Schwartz said.

"In the second quarter, cost control helped eight of the companies to meet or beat the consensus," she said.

Eventually, however, Schwartz said that the Internet should become a viable platform for growth starting in the next 18 to 24 months.

"We continue to believe the longer term viability of the newspapers partially hinges on their ability to monetize the Internet," she said.

In July, Tribune and McClatchy received greater than 7% of their revenues from the net, while New York Times received an 8% contribution and the Washington Post a 10% contribution.

That's close to the 10% to 15% online revenue contributions newspaper companies will need to offset the print declines, said Credit Suisse.

For now, however, Schwartz said investors should hold off. Yet she did recommend Dow Jones and Scripps due to their reputation for higher growth, adding that Tribune offers "a significant upside."

Newspaper stocks are down 11% year to date and down 4% since July, according to Credit Suisse.

In morning trading, shares of EW Scripps, The New York Times Company and McClatchy were down slightly, while Tribune and Dow Jones saw modest gains.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dbm; liberalmedia; msmwoes; newspapers
If September proves to be a lackluster month, more cost saving measures could be on the way, Schwartz said.

Translation: More Layoffs and Firings

1 posted on 08/22/2006 11:53:13 AM PDT by abb
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To: abb
Raoul's First Law of Journalism
BIAS = LAYOFFS

2 posted on 08/22/2006 11:53:50 AM PDT by abb (The Dinosaur Media: A One-Way Medium in a Two-Way World)
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To: PajamaTruthMafia; knews_hound; Grampa Dave; martin_fierro; Liz; norwaypinesavage; Mo1; onyx; ...

Ping


3 posted on 08/22/2006 11:54:20 AM PDT by abb (The Dinosaur Media: A One-Way Medium in a Two-Way World)
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To: abb

Car dealers are shifting 2 BILLION dollars of ad money from newspapers and TV to the internet this year. They say they get much more bang for the buck because internet shoppers are more likely to know what they want to buy and take far less time to consumate the sale, approximately 45 min. in the dealer showroom vs. 3 hours for the non-internet buyer. This is a huge loss for papers, especially, and another nail in their coffins.


4 posted on 08/22/2006 11:58:58 AM PDT by kittymyrib
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To: abb

Floor to me = liquidation basis. Cease operations, scrap the equipment and sell the real estate.


5 posted on 08/22/2006 12:01:02 PM PDT by Loyal Buckeye
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To: abb
Newspapers stocks are near the valuation floor

Until they drop the valuation again due to further declining readership.

6 posted on 08/22/2006 12:01:54 PM PDT by aynrandfreak (The Left hates America)
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To: kittymyrib

And classified revenue, the "river of newspaper gold", is getting sucked up by the web.


7 posted on 08/22/2006 12:03:24 PM PDT by Uncledave
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To: abb

"With few exceptions, the companies will need a strong September to meet newspaper guidance for the quarter."

While I'd love to contribute to their demise, I'll continue my Sunday-Only newspaper subscription for the coupons and sale flyers, and the fact that I use newspaper in so many ways...making planting pots for seedlings, shredded in the compost bucket to control odors, shredded for nesting material for my laying hens, and twisted into fire starters for the wood stove.

But read it? LOL! It's not worth it, but I do get my $1.50/week use out of the actual newspaper. ;)


8 posted on 08/22/2006 12:11:09 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (Save The Earth. It's The Only Planet With Chocolate.)
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To: abb
Newspapers stocks are near the valuation floor,

Well, if you knock out the floor here, you could open up all the way to the basement. If that's not enough room, we could jackhammer out the concrete and dig at least another 20 feet down.

9 posted on 08/22/2006 12:13:35 PM PDT by KarlInOhio (UN Security Council resolution 1701: I believe it is ceasefire for our time.)
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To: abb
In this day and time anyone buying a Liberal or biased Newspaper is stupid and that includes liberals.
10 posted on 08/22/2006 12:15:01 PM PDT by gunnedah
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To: gunnedah

Microsoft, Google, Yahoo all are becoming the MSM. And they are even more left wing than most papers.


11 posted on 08/22/2006 12:16:06 PM PDT by stocksthatgoup ("Is it real? Or is it Reuters?")
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
Sunday-Only newspaper subscription for the coupons and sale flyers

The weekly grocery sale ads that are in my local Gannetoid rags are available online. It may be worth your time to check and see which are available online in your area. After all, $1.50/wk translates into $78.00/yr and priceless satisfaction in knowing you had a part in putting the bastards out of business...

12 posted on 08/22/2006 12:17:20 PM PDT by abb (The Dinosaur Media: A One-Way Medium in a Two-Way World)
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To: abb
Newspaper Shares Near Valuation Floor

Pinch sure picked a good time to be building his new building, didn't he?

In the words of Nelson Muntz... "HA HA!!!"

13 posted on 08/22/2006 12:58:00 PM PDT by gridlock (The 'Pubbies will pick up at least TWO seats in the Senate and FOUR seats in the House in 2006)
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To: abb
Image hosted by Photobucket.com

HA ha...
and the RATS take another one in the...

14 posted on 08/22/2006 2:23:00 PM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist ©®)
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To: abb

Liberals in government always raise taxes to meet their needs for ever increasing revenue, so why doesn't the liberal MSM adopt the same strategy..just raise prices?...(G)


15 posted on 08/22/2006 3:12:12 PM PDT by ken5050
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To: abb
BIAS = LAYOFFS

CNN's special on OBL should be interesting. Are they coming around? Wait, does OBL build roads or give to aides patients?

16 posted on 08/22/2006 3:16:29 PM PDT by alrea
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To: Temple Owl

ping


17 posted on 08/22/2006 3:38:25 PM PDT by Tribune7
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To: stocksthatgoup

I agree!


18 posted on 08/22/2006 4:44:11 PM PDT by gunnedah
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To: stocksthatgoup

I agree!


19 posted on 08/22/2006 4:44:13 PM PDT by gunnedah
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To: abb; george76; Milhous; petercooper; Ernest_at_the_Beach
The grim reality of the stock prices of the major Dinosaur Fishwraps is worse than the quotes in the above article.

Below are the two year charts of the major players versus MDY, the midcap index.


20 posted on 08/22/2006 5:20:53 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (There's a dwindling market for Marxist Homosexual Lunatic lies/wet dreams posing as news.)
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To: gridlock

Lovely. May it go the way of the Enron Building. Or Enron Field.


21 posted on 08/22/2006 5:21:04 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: Grampa Dave

NYT : In just one month...

overall revenue slipped 1.8% as advertising revenue dropped 3.3% in July compared with the same month a year ago.

At the New York Times Media Group, which includes the flagship newspaper, ad revenue was down 4.6%...

Advertising continued to be dismal at the company's New England Media Group, which includes the Boston Globe and the Worcester Telegram & Gazette, as revenue plunged nearly 12%...

If they do this for 12 months....

8-)

.


22 posted on 08/22/2006 5:37:08 PM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: gridlock
An oldy but goody.

Pinch Gets Punched

I hear the Sulzberger clan is also getting an earful from friends on the dinner party circuit from New York to Paris

. . .

But the New York Times Company (and its shareholders) will still need to come up with almost 400 million dollars more to complete the Taj Mahal it is erecting as Pinch’s monument to himself. That’s quite a palace for company whose shares are down 40-some percent in the last year, and whose assets are deployed mostly in declining businesses like newspapers and broadcast television stations.


23 posted on 08/22/2006 8:19:46 PM PDT by Milhous (Twixt truth and madness lies but a sliver of a stream.)
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To: Grampa Dave

Now that really looks good!


24 posted on 08/22/2006 8:46:15 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
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