Posted on 09/11/2006 9:18:01 AM PDT by staytrue
Commodities of all types are falling big today.
Oil down over a dollar.
Gold down 23 dollars.
Silver down a dollar.
Grains and meats are down.
sugar, cotton, orange juice, lumber down also.
Cocoa and live hogs are about even.
I for one agree; this (metals) has become a very crowded trade and a few funds have thrown in the towel. I'll separate oil from the metals, because IMO the fundamentals for oil very much outran the realities. I remain bullish on the metals but they will be a LT trade and they have demonstrated an unsuitability for more than say a single digit fraction of one's port. IMO, of course.
I truly do not understand the pump in the homies, though.
My guess is the inflation bugaboo is overrated as evidenced by oil prices dropping. Further, currency exchange rates may have influence on gold/silver beyond inflation. Dropping commodity prices may indicate that we are not in the final throws of cyclical down market but may be in for continued sustainable growth. All those players who sold cyclicals may just have to buy them back. Sweet.
Yes. Wishful thinking on my part. I'd love to see Soros lose his shirt and thus his influence.
Generally, the ones losing are the ones who thought the party would go on forever.
About time. They've been way too high for too long.
Very interesting and thanks.
Oil has been dropping for a while. Supplies were not all that tight, and it went up over 70 mainly on fears of impending wars and boycotts.
This was a critical day for gold and silver, up or down, and they both just broke down through support.
IMHO, the bull market in precious metals probably won't resume for at least another three months.
Probably the new Treasury Secretary had something to do with this happening at this key moment in time, right at the beginning of the September gold season and right before the run up to the elections. If so, good for him, because it will help the Republicans.
I'd guess it has to do with OPEC's announcement that they're going to continue pumping at current rates. Since everything is tied to petroleum, its a day to sell off.
OK, pork belly prices have been dropping all morning.
So everybody's waiting for them to hit rock bottom so they can buy cheap. The people with pork belly contracts are thinking, "Hey, we're losing all our money and Christmas is coming. I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip, and my wife won't make love to me 'cos I ain't got no money".
They're panicking, screaming, "Sell, sell."
They don't want to lose all their money. They are panicking right now. I can feel it"
D'oh!
Gold, silver ETFs down sharply on easing Iran fears
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BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Precious metals exchange-traded funds plunged Monday morning as investors weighed reports that U.S. officials said they welcome moving toward ending the nuclear standoff with Iran. Gold futures fell under $600 an ounce Monday for the first time since June as some analysts blamed the selloff on central-bank selling in Europe.
thats a terrible visual...
Sunday Sept. 10th 2006 I paid $2.17 a gallon at Flying J Truck Stop in Suburry Ohio (On I-71 just North of Columbus Ohio)
Stocks dragged lower by commodities sell-off
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks lost ground Monday as a sharp drop in crude-oil prices led a sell-off in commodities and sent shares of energy and mining companies lower, most notably Exxon Mobil and Alcoa on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
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All the economic reports are pointing to a slower economy and that's weighing on stocks," said Anthony Conroy, head trader at BNY Brokerage. "But there are some positives out there as well. Crude is down for a sixth day in a row, its biggest falling streak in over three years."
Actually, pork bellies are down big.
That movie was the first thing I thought of when I saw this thread.
"I truly do not understand the pump in the homies, though."
I truly do not understand the above sentence, can you translate please.
I have been following the oil prices for a while. Saw a TV program that said if it weren't for various manipulations, the true price of oil should be around $40 or $50. On the other hand I attended a conference on "peak oil" featuring Mr Lundberg of Lundberg Letter fame. There the projection was that because of growth in China and India, oil could reach $200/barrel in 5 or 10 years.
Hmmm...
I'm not sure that a single entity pulling out of commodities could result in this big an across the board move. And if it was a single entity, why would they pull out so fast that buyers could not keep up?
The traditional answer would be that a massive number of investors suddenly decided the world is a less risky place. But that would presumably push stocks up and interest rates down, and that is not happening.
It will be interesting to see if the fall continues.
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