Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[p[adre29]

Or does it prove that Free Republic is out of touch?

Pioneers always take the arrows.
Yet another poll that means "Didi" very little, most don't care (yet) F. Thompson may run, and Newt May run.

The Rudy boys are counting there eggs before there is even a chicken..

[MEGoody]

Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans

Not with this conservative Republican.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

The MSM and the pollsters are sure trying to sell Rudy to everyone.

Just like their successful campaign for Bob Dull in '96.

[wastedyears]

Hunter isn't in there. They're scare of Hunter?

[hschliemann]

Fuggeddaboutit Rudi.Tancredo's running.

[MEGoody]

. . .but I think it's clear that we who see Rudy for what he is have lost.

Not ready to throw in the towel yet. A lot can happen in a pretty short time.

But it is sad and rather shocking how far left those who call themselves conservatives have moved.

[MACVSOG68]

Free Republic has been out of touch with the American voting public since the 2006 elections.

Amen!

[TommyDale]

Rudy's new official campaign photo

[areafiftyone]

I guess they don't learn even when they lose elections. Very strange Indeed.

[TommyDale]

"Or does it prove that Free Republic is out of touch?"

You would also have to think that Laura Ingraham, Rush Limbaugh and others are also out of touch. I don't think so. The Drive-By Media have annointed Rudy Giuliani as the GOP nominee because they know they can destroy him later during the real campaign.

[TommyDale]

Rudy Giuliani carries far too much baggage

[JohnnyZ]

This poll is useful as a beginning point -- analysis just from this one poll is junk, but it will be helpful when they do this poll again in a few months to determine the trend.

/random bold

[dforest]

All I had to do is look at how and who were polled.

I never believe this garbage.

Polls are used anymore to create a perception hoping that people are mindless followers.

The battles are just beginning. The mud wars have yet to begin.

[GrandEagle]

NO SALE HERE
yep, no kidding. Here either.
If he ends up with the nomination it would really be a tough call.
It is a lot easier to deal with when you know you have an enemy of the Republic as president than when you have an enemy of the Republic that half the people follow because he waves the Republican flag.
There is no way I could vote for him. Unfortunately there is a much bigger no way that I could vote for hillary; so I'd have to vote for him just to vote against her.
This is just the predicament the enemies of our nation depend on.

[Calpernia]

Bracewell & Giuliani. Former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani

REPRESENTATIVE CLIENTS

	AOL Time Warner ---------------------------------------------------------- GMJ is published by The Gallup Organization with support services from the Custom Publishing division of AOL Time Warner's Time, Inc. unit. For more information on the publication, go to http://gmj.gallup.com. ------------------------------------------------- No conflict of interest there (/s)

[APRPEH]

B"H

[Calpernia]

Interesting for noting

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1803763/posts?page=35#35

[stockstrader]

You said, "Free Republic has been out of touch with the American voting public since the 2006 elections".

No question about it. However, FR is NOT out-of-touch with the Conservative Wing of the Republican Party. Good luck electing a liberal without the energy, enthusiasm, volunteer time and effort, and turnout that the Conservative Wing can supply (if it is not slapped in the face, by nominating a liberal like JulieAnnie)

Maybe you Rudy-apologists can do it without us, maybe not. We'll see, but good luck anyway.

[JHBowden]

Thompson's a good guy and a realistic candidate, unlike Tancredo, Hunter, or Gingrich. I agree with you that polling is not a Communist conspiracy.

Partisans will always shoot the messenger-- it is much easier than accepting that there are conservatives out there that have reasonable disagreements. If it so happened that Giuliani slips in the polls, we'd even see many of the Rudy partisans claiming it is a conspiracy by the Clintons.

[JohnnyZ]

The percentage breakdowns and preference order of this presidential preference poll are JUNK.

It says very, very, very little about who conservatives or moderates will support when the campaign hits actual primaries.

It will be useful in the future as a baseline to analyse preference TRENDS, in ... oh, four months or so.

Although, as pointed out, there's likely to be a different group of candidates polled when the question is asked again.