*Attack on Iraq Betting Pool*(March 20, 2003 -- Did Anyone Get It Right After 1000+ Predictions?)

Free Republic ^ | 8/30/2002 | Momaw Nadon

[OpenBar]

Attack on Iraq Betting Pool

Friday, August 30, 2002 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 08/30/2002 8:14:01 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon

It seems like an attack on Iraq is coming soon.

Place your bet as to when the attack will begin.

Whoever gets closest to the date and time wins.

Attack time must be specified in Month, Day, Year, Hour, and Minute

For the hour, don't forget to specify what time zone you are referring to.

There is no decision on a prize to be awarded yet except for bragging rights.

[OpenBar]

I was cruising old archives, and came across an interesting retrospective thread on the heels of the Four Year Anniversary of the Invasion of Iraq which officially began on March 20, 2003.

This 1000+ thread of predictions began on August 30, 2002, and wound up well into 2003 (Spoilers coming, if you don't want to see)

To: Momaw Nadon March 17, 2003. 0300 Bagdad Zulu.

136 posted on 08/30/2002 5:47:27 PM PDT by Kensei

To: Momaw Nadon Late evening March 19, 2003 or just after midnight on March 20, 2003.

355 posted on 11/09/2002 1:04:59 PM PST by MSCASEY

OF NOTE: A few others hit the mark or got extremely close, but were made much closer to the actual war commencement date.

These two predictions I cited were extraordinary considering their prediction dates.

Enjoy.

Some of you sage old-timers may have forgotten how far off the mark you were.

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Congrats to the winners (IMHO).

Are any of you still around? Had you done your rightful share of bragging?

Great thread, Momaw Nadon. The early tallying of poster with their respective predictions was cool.

[OpenBar]

To: All
Guys I did not win!

Posted by MSCASEY to Momaw Nadon
On News/Activism 11/09/2002 1:04 PM PST #355 of 1,066

Late evening March 19, 2003 or just after midnight on March 20, 2003.

MCD

Since I usually fast from sunset on Friday to sunset on Saturday. I was in the middle of my fast when I felt as if I had a prophetic insight. In January when I pressed for an actually time, logic stepped in. At which time I posted this:

Posted by MSCASEY to snippy_about_it On News/Activism 01/19/2003 10:25 PM PST #715 of 1,066 Thanks that helped! I will say at 3:33 p.m. Pacific Standard time!

and

Posted by MSCASEY to snippy_about_it On News/Activism 01/19/2003 10:27 PM PST #716 of 1,066 Sorry that was March 20, 2003 3:33 Standard Pacific Time!

All I can hope and pray is that what I felt or that came to me on November 9, 2002, when I picked this date, does not come to pass. But on the other hand it is time. MCD
1,067 posted on 03/19/2003 10:58:26 PM PST by MSCASEY

[OpenBar]

To: Timesink; All It seems that the official attack time was Wednesday, March 19, 2003 at 9:30 P.M. EST according to President Bush.

Do you agree with this as the official time?

Who would you say is the winner of the Attack on Iraq Betting Pool?

I was assuming that the attack would begin with a massive bombardment of Baghdad. Perhaps there should also be a winner in the "shock and awe" category? 1,068 posted on 03/20/2003 4:09:48 PM PST by Momaw Nadon (The mind is like a parachute. It doesn't work unless it's open.)

NOTE: The March 20, 2003 date source was cited from Wikipedia.

[Allegra]

Wow.

That all seems like a million years ago now.

[Porterville]

"Next week, Wednesday at 2:15 AM PST

881 posted on 02/14/2003 7:21:43 PM PST by Porterville"

I bet on 2/21/2003

[Porterville]

"Next week, Wednesday at 2:15 AM PST

881 posted on 02/14/2003 7:21:43 PM PST by Porterville"

I bet on 2/21/2003

[Myrddin]

April 17, 2007 is the next new moon.

[Kensei]

This is truly a deja vu thread. Having guessed when U.S. forces combat action would begin, are there any folks out there prepared to guess when U.S. forces will withdraw?

My guess is March 1, 2008 (under a newly elected president) and I very much fear that it will be a "Somali withdrawal."

I also fear that events have proven at least one argument in opposition to the Iraq resolution by Senator Robert Byrd to be correct. The President should have sought a formal congressional declaration of war.

May God protect our troops and save them from our politicians.

[OpenBar]

<<"Wow.

That all seems like a million years ago now.">>

Make that a million and four years ago. :-)

Almost like FR's Dead Sea Scrolls ;-)

[OpenBar]

<<"Next week, Wednesday at 2:15 AM PST

881 posted on 02/14/2003 7:21:43 PM PST by Porterville"

I bet on 2/21/2003">>

Okay -- you get "HONORABLE MENTION" ;-) even on that late ante-ing up.

Had you also made an earlier prediction or was that your only shot?

Some Freepers kept re-betting.

[OpenBar]

"April 17, 2007 is the next new moon."

I liked the way and reasons by which some Freepers made their respective positions.

Like Porterville, some were based on the moon chart (which was posted); Others claimed to have inside info (bad at that), and some because it was their birthday.

Surprising, while the thread began at the end of August, 2003, many of the initial predictions were for the Iraq War to begin in Sept./Oct.

The vibe on this board must have been thick with anticipation and a sense of urgency.

[OpenBar]

<<"This is truly a deja vu thread. Having guessed when U.S. forces combat action would begin, are there any folks out there prepared to guess when U.S. forces will withdraw?">>

<<"My guess is March 1, 2008 (under a newly elected president) and I very much fear that it will be a "Somali withdrawal.">>

Now what a GREAT idea! Deserves its own thread (hint, hint). Ping me if you start it.

MY guess would be: May 3, 2008.

Congrats again, Kensi. Your prediction was amazing given most others weren't even considering any prediction beyond the end of 2002.

[Allegra]

My guess is March 1, 2008 (under a newly elected president)

But we won't have a newly elected president until January 20, 2009. :-?

[Momaw Nadon]

This thread brings back memories.

It was designed as a thought experiment in the science of prediction. My original hypothesis was that the time of the initial attack would be located at the center of the bell curve of predictions.

While I was uncomfortable with some of the jocularity on the thread, I can't blame people for engaging in "gallows humor" to relieve tension in such a serious situation.

Another experiment was to use a weekly tally of betting on TradeSports (now InTrade) to predict the Electoral Vote outcome of the 2004 Presidential Election. It came remarkably close.

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 11/1/2004

This is a link to a recent book on the subject:

[ForOurFuture]

I organized something like this in my high school. We did dates only. No times.

[MSCASEY]

I rarely post here anymore but every once and a great while I do check in!

I would be very surprised if we withdraw our troops from Iraq. I would be surprised if we do not go into Iran also.

Ms. Casey’s Daughter

[txhurl]

I remember that thread like it was yesterday.

[txhurl]

Surprising, while the thread began at the end of August, 2003

2002.