Some elements of the media have been heralding Taliban propaganda on how they are going to re-establish themselves in Afghanistan as well as the vaunted “spring offensive”. Well, here’s what is happening.
The 2006 “offensive” was extremely costly in the way of fighters, leaders, material and equipment. While they were able to gain an initial tactical surprise advantage, the Taliban moved in large groups that were easily targeted by coalition air power. As a result they lost a lot of fighters. As the winter of 2006/07 progressed, selective targeting took out many key leaders, hurting their capabilities even further. In the light of these significant losses, recruitment was far below what it had been in the past.
Coalition forces along with Afghan National Army units (ANA) have also taken the initiative away from the Taliban by striking out with their own offensive strikes first. This combined with the turmoil in the Taliban/AQ sanctuary (see next paragraph) has left them ill prepared to respond to.
While the Pakistani government basically ceded Waristian to the Taliban and AQ, a funny thing started to happen – they started fighting among themselves. Significant fights between Taliban sympathic tribes in Pakistan have broken out with the predominantly foreign fighters of AQ. This is possibly an outgrowth over the heavy losses of the previous year and resultant infighting. Also, tribal membership and pride is important and I suspect that the foreign AQ fighters intruded far too much on their guests hospitality.
The vaunted ‘thousands’ of suicide bombers the Taliban have claimed ready to use have so far been a resounding failure. In the attempts to use them, they have missed their targets, set them off prematurely or have been intercepted enroute. Failures in this tactic make it less likely that many will be willing to try and do better in the face of lowered morale.
Finally, the Taliban have been losing the PR fight to win the hearts of the Afghanies. Thwarted at military dominance, they have used selective bullying tactics against schools and other efforts to improve the life of the Afghans. The Afghans in turn have realized that the Taliban do not have their best interests in mind and are more supportive of the coalition and Afghan government. On source considers this strategy of being one where if the Taliban are not only hated but feared.
I expect that the Taliban ‘offensive’ will be less than spectacular or effective. They have serious issues that are currently tearing them apart. If they begin to move, early indicators suggest that they will once again use larger formations of men as in 2006. This will be like shooting ducks in a barrel for coalition forces.
Great summary and analysis, Godzilla.
Thank you.
Thank you, Godzilla. Your informative summaries, and pings, are always appreciated.
Much appreciate your perceptive narrative.
Thanks.