Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Felix has formed near the South American
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northern coast of Venezuela from Cumana to Pedernales including the island of Margarita.
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| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Wtnt31 knhc 021434
Tcpat1
Bulletin
Hurricane Felix advisory number 8
Nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al062007
1100 am ast sun sep 02 2007
...Felix passing north of Aruba...
A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the
Islands of aruba...bonaire...and curacao.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for jamaica.
At 11 am edt...1500 utc...the government of the cayman islands has
Issued a tropical storm watch for grand cayman.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western caribbean sea should
Closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
Inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
By your local weather office.
At 1100 am ast...1500z...the center of hurricane felix was located
Near latitude 13.2 north...longitude 70.1 west or about 50 miles...
75 km...north of aruba and about 555 miles...895 km...southeast of
Kingston jamaica.
Felix is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
And this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
Hours. On this track the center of the hurricane will be moving
Away from the netherlands antilles and over the open waters of the
Central caribbean sea today and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
Gusts. Felix is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson
Scale. Strengthening is forecast and felix could become a major
Hurricane tonight or early on monday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
The center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
Miles...185 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.
Felix is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
Possible maximum isolated amounts of 6 inches over the netherlands
Antilles...the paraguana peninsula of northwestern venezuela and
The guajira peninsula of northern colombia.
Repeating the 1100 am ast position...13.2 n...70.1 w. Movement
Toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105
Mph. Minimum central pressure...980 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
Center at 200 pm ast followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
The hurricane is forecast to remain in an extremely low wind shear environment and to move over waters of increasingly high oceanic heat content. Therefore I see no reason why Felix will not become a major hurricane within 12 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is quite similar to the logistic growth equation model...lgem... version of SHIPS and calls for Cat. 4 intensity withing 36 hours. It should be noted that the purely dynamical models have not been very bullish on the strengthening of Felix so far. The initial motion is just a smidgen to the right of previous estimates...around 285/16.
There is no important change to the track forecast reasoning for the next 2-3 days. Global model predictions show a deep layer ridge persisting to the north of Felix...which should prevent a significant northward shift of the hurricane's track over the Caribbean. There is more uncertainty in the 4 and 5 day forecast locations. The GFS shows a 500 mb trough over the central U.S. In about 5 days. This feature could erode the high over the Gulf of Mexico and result in a more northward track near the end of the forecast period. For this advisory package only a slight northward adjustment is made to the 96- and 120-hour forecasts. The current NHC track forecast is also a little slower than the previous one at 3-5 days. In any event it should be recalled that the average track errors at 4 and 5 days range from over 200 miles to nearly 300 miles respectively...so one should not be focusing on the exact track at these extended ranges. The radii of 12-ft seas over the northern semicircle have been expanded based on data from NOAA data buoy 42059. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 02/1500z 13.2n 70.1w 90 kt 12hr VT 03/0000z 13.7n 72.8w 100 kt 24hr VT 03/1200z 14.4n 76.3w 110 kt 36hr VT 04/0000z 15.1n 79.5w 120 kt 48hr VT 04/1200z 15.8n 82.7w 125 kt 72hr VT 05/1200z 17.0n 87.0w 120 kt 96hr VT 06/1200z 19.0n 90.5w 70 kt...inland 120hr VT 07/1200z 21.0n 94.0w 85 kt
All the computer models sure have aligned for a change.
I ran off to Holden Beach, NC yesterday AM. Took the little one out to the beach for a swim, tidied up the place, put away things and generally got it ready for the next few weeks.
Back on board.
Felix looks awesome...no questions its a major hurricane...the only question is it a CAT 3 or 4 now...will find out within the hour
Here is a link to other buoys off the GA/Carolina area
recon just found 122kt flight level winds and a pressure of 960mb.
so looks like 125MPH surface winds
and its still getting stronger
Wtnt31 knhc 021747
Tcpat1
Bulletin
Hurricane Felix intermediate advisory number 8a
Nws tpc/national hurricane center Miami fl al062007
200 pm ast sun sep 02 2007
...Felix strengthens into a major hurricane...
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica and for grand
Cayman. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
Conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
Hours.
At 2 pm ast...1800z...the government of the Netherlands Antilles has
Discontinued all watches and warnings for the islands of
Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean sea should
Closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
Inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
By your local weather office.
At 200 pm ast...1800z...the center of hurricane Felix was located
By an air force hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 13.4
North...longitude 71.2 west or about 490 miles...790 km...southeast
Of Kingston Jamaica.
Felix is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
And this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
Hours.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph...205
Km/hr...with higher gusts. Felix is a category three hurricane on
The Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast...
And Felix could become a category four hurricane within the next
Day or so.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
The center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
Miles...185 km.
The hurricane hunter plane reported that the minimum central
Pressure has fallen to 964 mb...28.47 inches.
Felix is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
Possible maximum isolated amounts of 6 inches over the Netherlands
Antilles...the Paraguana peninsula of northwestern Venezuela and
The Guajira peninsula of northern Colombia.
Repeating the 200 pm ast position...13.4 n...71.2 w. Movement
Toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125
Mph. Minimum central pressure...964 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
You and CindyDawg have about 6 days remaining to evolve some gills. Wings wouldn’t hurt, either :)
One in your house? Yikes. It can’t be a coincidence. Yesterday we ‘hot shotted’ a crew that was trying to get in.
Hi Pebcak. We’re watching this one, from down here...
La Ceiba is gonna get smacked
Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph.
Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure...964 mb.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
My tracking chart only goes to 15 degrees north. I am waiting to put Felix on my hurricane tracking chart.
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