Arctic Melt Unnerves the Experts

NY Times ^ | October 2, 2007 | ANDREW C. REVKIN

[neverdem]

The Arctic ice cap shrank so much this summer that waves briefly lapped along two long-imagined Arctic shipping routes, the Northwest Passage over Canada and the Northern Sea Route over Russia.

Over all, the floating ice dwindled to an extent unparalleled in a century or more, by several estimates.

Now the six-month dark season has returned to the North Pole. In the deepening chill, new ice is already spreading over vast stretches of the Arctic Ocean. Astonished by the summer’s changes, scientists are studying the forces that exposed one million square miles of open water — six Californias — beyond the average since satellites started measurements in 1979.

At a recent gathering of sea-ice experts at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, Hajo Eicken, a geophysicist, summarized it this way: “Our stock in trade seems to be going away.”

Scientists are also unnerved by the summer’s implications for the future, and their ability to predict it.

Complicating the picture, the striking Arctic change was as much a result of ice moving as melting, many say. A new study, led by Son Nghiem at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and appearing this week in Geophysical Research Letters, used satellites and buoys to show that winds since 2000 had pushed huge amounts of thick old ice out...

--snip--

Still, many of those scientists said they were becoming convinced that the system is heading toward a new, more watery state, and that human-caused global warming is playing a significant role.

--snip--

In essence, Arctic waters may be behaving more like those around Antarctica, where a broad fringe of sea ice builds each austral winter and nearly disappears in the summer. (Reflecting the different geography and dynamics at the two poles, there has been a slight increase in sea-ice area around Antarctica in recent decades.)

[neverdem]

Still, many of those scientists said they were becoming convinced that the system is heading toward a new, more watery state, and that human-caused global warming is playing a significant role.

Many, not most?

Carbon Dioxide Did Not End The Last Ice Age, Study Says

Sunlight terminated Ice Age, UH researcher finds

Sea Ice in Retreat

Arctic Study A Coast Guard work party in August deploying a buoy that helps scientists track the age of sea ice.(McKenzie Funk)

Andy Armstrong/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Retreat A photograph taken in August from an icebreaker research cruise in the Arctic Ocean, about 600 miles north of the Alaska coastline.

[BipolarBob]

There was a time when global warming/cooling was called the weather. In those days it was thought of as a natural cycle. Tell your grandkids or else this knowledge will cease.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

I ask all enviros the obvious question. Since there have been next to no witnesses in those areas until recently, how do we know this isn’t a common occurrence?

[Rennes Templar]

“...there has been a slight increase in sea-ice area around Antarctica in recent decades.)”

Not-quite-global warming

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

there has been a slight increase in sea-ice area around Antarctica in recent decades

Buried, so no one will notice!

[snowman_returns]

There was a time when global warming/cooling was called the weather. In those days it was thought of as a natural cycle. Tell your grandkids or else this knowledge will cease.

The ice loss this year in the East Siberian & Beaufort sea was caused by a persistently strong stubborn area of high pressure allowing for weeks on end of clear skies even the AGW scientists have acknowledged this much.

Meanwhile on the other side of the world Antarctica has reported record ice extent, but that's an inconvenient truth I suspect.

[backtothestreets]

All mankind is not responsible for the melting of polar ice. It is caused by hot-aired politicians. They must be regulated!

[Darkwolf377]

Over all, the floating ice dwindled to an extent unparalleled in a century or more

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!*

* This fact is indisputable!

[AFPhys]

I keep wondering when these articles will mention prominently that it has long been believed that Marco Polo navigated the Arctic from China over to Greenland in the 1200’s... thus the fabled “Northwest Passage”...

[Sherman Logan]

it has long been believed that Marco Polo navigated the Arctic from China over to Greenland in the 1200’s.

Believed by whom?

Marco traveled to China overland across the steppe, and returned to Europe via the southern sea route through Malaysia. I don't recall anything about long sea voyages while he was working for Kublai.

[joeystoy]

There is speculation that Marco Polo sailed the Arctic north of Siberia. His logs mentioned that his compass read a course pointing north while Polaris was at his back. This was due to magnetic variation and could only be noted if he was far north, goes the theory. His log also notes the beauty of the islands north of Siberia.

This supposedly occured during his two-decade service to the Mongol Empire.

[neverdem]

Girls Are Often Neglected Victims of Concussions

Special teams fight diabetic amputations

Stem cell campaign debated The foes don't tell the truth. Search for Project Snowflake.

FReepmail me if you want on or off my health and science ping list.

[samtheman]

Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says

In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.

Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.

"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.

[Pontiac]

Over all, the floating ice dwindled to an extent unparalleled in a century or more, by several estimates.

Oh my gahd! A whole century!

A century is an insignificant blip in historic climate models. If it happened a century ago then there historic precedence for it happening before human industry could have conceivably impacted climate change.

I hate alarmist reporting styles.

[NewHampshireDuo]

Over all, the floating ice dwindled to an extent unparalleled in a century or more, by several estimates

So, what was the melting blamed on a century or so ago? Horse drawn SUVs and gas lamps?

[KeyWest]

Couple of problems- recent studies show that Antarctica is the real climate driver/indicator. When it gets bigger, cooler weather is on the way and vice versa. Also, the Arctic ice generally moves from one place to another since it is just a large iceberg, so you can get more ice on one side than another.

[listenhillary]

Climates change and weather happens. Imagine a sensory deprivation tank. That’s what it would be with out variables.

Pretty damned dull.

As to the idea that we can modify where the climate is heading by recycling a beverage can or changing a light bulb shows that PT Barnum was right, he just underestimated by a factor of ten.

[olezip]

Still, many of those scientists said they were becoming convinced that the system is heading toward a new, more watery state, and that human-caused global warming is playing a significant role.

It is really difficult to separate the "wheat from the chaff" in many scientific studies of climate change. I really question the motives of scientists with a vested interest in human caused global warming. I am not sure that our system can purge itself of such bias. Our country's educational systems have been too "dumbed down" to support ordered minds and common sense. We are already living out Animal Farm.

[muawiyah]

And, it has to do with definitions. It's SEA ICE if less than 15% of any given area is open water. It's OPEN WATER if more than 14% of any given area is not not ice.

You still need a very robust ship to travel at speed through "open water" that's 85% ice, plus there are imbedded icebergs.

[Wonder Warthog]

"I ask all enviros the obvious question. Since there have been next to no witnesses in those areas until recently, how do we know this isn’t a common occurrence?"

Ditto that. During the Medieval Warm Period, the earth was warmer than it is today. What was the "arctic sea ice" doing then???