Posted on 10/19/2007 5:58:58 AM PDT by dano1
THE ONLY POLLSTER that really matters is Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports. In addition to his unrivaled track record, Rasmussen is also the only pollster who is currently screening for likely voters. So when Rasmussen says something, we ought to pay attention.
Yesterday, Rasmussen released a poll of the Iowa Republican Caucus. Given its surprising results, I'm surprised it hasn't received more attention. Romney's winning with 25 percent; no big shakes there. Fred's in second at 19 percent; again, nothing earth shattering. But here comes the bombshell: Mike Huckabee checks in at 18 percent, a stunningly strong third place showing and within shouting distance of the frontrunners.
A few weeks ago, I was guest-hosting for Hugh Hewitt on his eponymous radio show, and a caller stated that the Republican nominee would be Fred Thompson or Mike Huckabee. Reflexively, I shrieked, "Huckabee?!" I yelled it again: "Huckabee?!" But maybe the caller was on to something.
Obviously, Huckabee is making a move in Iowa. He has risen from the bottom tier. In fact, he's solidly in the top tier, at least in Iowa. He has a five point lead over Giuliani and a twelve point lead over McCain in the Ethanol State.
So let's play this out: If Mike Huckabee wins in Iowa, does he have a chance of going all the way? The governor has a few things working against him. Most notable are the facts that he has no money and even less name recognition. But let's say he wins Iowa. Will victory in the Land of Ethanol be enough to offset those deficiencies?
It's been said that winning Iowa will be worth $60 million in free media to the victor. When I first heard that, I remember thinking at the time what a stupid and unsupportable assertion that was. Why not $59 million or $61 million? Nevertheless, I pass it along to you to help make a point. Regardless of the precise monetary value of a Huckabee victory in Iowa, Mike Huckabee will become very famous very quickly if he wins there.
So then what happens? Well, first off, Huckabee will still have no money, so he'll have to live off his free media and will be unable to fend off the assaults that his rivals will surely launch. But more important, Republicans across America will get to know a new member of the top tier.
And they may well like what they see. Huckabee is the most natural campaigner in the bunch. Unlike one member of the top tier, there's no danger that he'll doze off in mid-sentence. Unlike other members of the top-tier, Huckabee's a social conservative's dream. You want someone rock-ribbed on the social issues? Huckabee's your guy. He doesn't even believe in evolution. His taxing and spending in Arkansas may not be every conservative's ideal, but Huckabee probably has fewer policy skeletons in his closet than anyone else in the field.
The Republican rank and file's disillusionment with the present top tier hasn't been any secret. They have long hungered for the proverbial "someone else" to make their right-wing dreams come true. Mike Huckabee has a real shot at becoming the "someone else" who finally sets conservative hearts aflutter.
“THE ONLY POLLSTER that really matters”
Are the voters. Voters have not yet voted - all of this “polling” is boob-bait-for-the-butkis.
He is one of those who newly claims to have ‘seen the light’ and claims to be the true conservative.
His gubernatorial record contradicts some of his current claims.
That's true. You're right, it's the actual voting that matters. A lot of these polls have big margins of error, and at any rate a lot of people haven't really made up their minds yet.
THE ONLY POLLSTER that really matters”
Are the voters. Voters have not yet voted - all of this “polling” is boob-bait-for-the-butkis.
But Scott has the best record of any of the pollsters, so if any poll means anything it is his.
Huckabee huh. Is Huckabee this weeks suuuuper star? What happened to Thompson ???
>> The governor has a few things working against him. Most notable are the facts that he has no money and even less name recognition.
...and there’s more.
At the last debate — really the first time I have paid attention to Mr. Huckabee — I liked what I saw.
Right up until his obligatory class warfare statement, however. About how much CEOs make and how unfair that is. That’s a clear warning bell that the man is socialist in his thinking, and will tax and spend to level the playing field.
No thank you.
(and, no, I’m not one of those “rich CEOs”... not even close... but I aspire to improve my lot, and Mr. Huckabee promises to take that opportunity away from me in the name of “fairness”. Shades of Hillary!)
>> Is Huckabee this weeks suuuuper star? What happened to Thompson ???
The press is scrambling.
I mean that literally! The press is jumping from one to another of the (R) candidates to scramble the field and confuse the sheeple, while they maintain a steady drumbeat for the invincible Hillary.
It’s in the playbook, page 351, left column, third paragraph down. :-)
BTW, Huck's skeleton is his immigration stance.
It has been an amazing and disturbing thing to watch. I've been paying attention to politics since about 1976 and I've never seen the MSM so openly complicit in their support for a single candidate, nor have I seen them so openly opposing challengers to that single candidate. I get the impression that this might be a last gasp by the MSM since they're loosing market share daily. Okay, maybe I'm just hoping the MSM is choking on their own turds......
“BTW, Huck’s skeleton is his immigration stance.”
And it is a BIG skeleton. I like everything else about him.
I guess being a shill for "La Raza" doesn't count???
Gee--that sounds SOOOOOO enticing. Unfortunately, it doesn't match his actions elsewhere and previously.
>> I get the impression that this might be a last gasp by the MSM since they’re loosing market share daily.
The decline of the MSM is inevitable; there is better technology available and it will put them out of business eventually, or at least move them to the sidelines.
And even before they are marginalized to the point of being ineffective, a “tipping point” will be reached when the MSM will be much less able to drown out other messages from their competitors — even though the bandwidth of the “other messages” is still only a fraction of their own. The “viral effect” of one better-informed individual swaying the POV of several of their peers will provide the leverage. We may already be close to that point.
However, understand that the politicians who count the MSM as their ally know they are losing that ally, and they won’t give up without a fight. They plan for government control of the internet and other media like talk radio. Also they use the campaign finance reform canard as a way of silencing unfavored messages.
IMO, the dinosaur media WILL become “extinct”, more or less.
But I’m not so certain that the alternative media will win the battle against political control.
Why do you say that?
As you know, this is an idea guy; he thinks things through and he is good at articulating his ideas. He is also the most populist of the current batch; he will pull some independent votes in. Can he defeat Hillary; I don’t know if any GOP candidate can. But I think that he will stand in very stark contrast to her over-packaged appearance, and he will not have to run back to the center to be elected because he already relayed a lot of his thoughts.
My feeling is that if he is the nominee, he will have a chance to make things happen, and it will be money from small donors and principled conservatives that gets him going. And, flame away if you want, but I have no problem seeing him tackle the CEO cash-rapists on, either...
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