Most Electable Republican Candidate

The perception that Rudy Giuliani is the most electable Republican may be slipping a bit.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 66% of Republicans believe that Giuliani at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. That’s down from 72% a month ago.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of Republican voters now say that Fred Thompson is at least somewhat likely to win in nominated. That’s up from 57% last month.

The gap between Giuliani and Thompson virtually disappears at a higher level of confidence—23% of Republican voters say that Giuliani is Very Likely to win if nominated while 22% say the same about Thompson.

Being seen as the most electable candidate is important for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters see him as politically moderate or liberal. Thompson is seen as the most conservative candidate in the field.

As a whole, however, Republican voters are a lot less confident of victory than Democrats. Hillary Clinton is seen by those in her party as the most electable Democrat.

John McCain, struggling in the national polls, does fairly well in the electability category. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Republicans say he is at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. That includes 16% who believe he would be Very Likely to win.

Forty-seven percent (47%) say Mitt Romney is at least Somewhat Likely to emerge victorious if nominated. That’s down from 55% a month ago. Ten percent (10%) think Romney would be Very Likely to win, down from 15% in September.

Mike Huckabee is gaining ground both in Iowa and in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, just 35% think he is at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Only 10% see a Huckabee victory as Very Likely...

If Duncan Hunter's popularity were to rise, I'd be happy to support him over Thompson.

So yer just gonna follow the herd. Why not just pick the best and let the chips fall. By definition, the most popular will get the most votes. You know, votes. Not polling numbers. Actual votes. So why not cast YOUR vote for who you like the best, and let the most popular win. THEN, support that guy in the general? In effect, you're already admitting Freddy aint the best one. Worst of all, his supposed popularity is smoke and mirrors. Polls. Look at how popular howard dean was. Then when actual campaigning and voting happened....whoops! Thompson is a crappy candidate. A lousy speechifier. A slow, tired debater (when he shows up). And he supported John McCain in 2000. Thats surrounding yerself with good ppl? Seems he's surrounded himself with ppl he had to fire a few times already.

My problem with doing that, is that by doing so we may split the vote to the two best candidates and watch Rudy or Romney slip by. I can not afford to do that.

Pro-life and anti-illegal aliens invading our nation are very important issues for me. I will not allow anyone who disagrees on these two issues to get in, if I can help it.

The primaries are the last chance for us to make sure the right guy is standing for us in November 2008. The primaries will be every bit as important as the November 2008 election.

We can lose the whole ball of wax in the spring, because Rudy and Romney will never be elected from this party. The leaders may think so, but you’re going to see a massive exodus if Rudy, McCain or Romney get the nod.

We heard a lot of this same stuff from the Keyes supporters in the last few elections, and the Buchanan supporters before that.

That is true. I would remind you though, that at no time did a significant portion of this forum buy into the idea that RINOs need not apply during that period. Today they do. In a poll on this forum in the last week to ten days, 47% of forum members said they would vote third party, write in or simply not vote if Rudy were the Republican nominee. When it was visitors to the forum plus members, that number dropped to 45.4%. That's a rather revealing response IMO. I will say that we are a little over a year from the election and a lot could and probably will change, so this is just prelim stuff.

I just saw a report this evening that Republican fundraising was at about a 17 to 22 ratio vs the Democrats. Evidently the home team is beginning to get the message. I cannot tell you the specifics, and Lord knows the numbers could have been jobed by the media, so I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in that figure. I do sense a change in the public debate. It's my assessment that the illegal alien problem and our leadership's ignorance on the issue is driving folks away from the party in droves. Is that true? Is that what we are seeing? I honestly don't know, but something has changed, as evidenced even here.

Fortunately, most of the country is more pragmatic than your dire predictions.

You've got as much right to tell us what your gutt feeling is on this as I do to you. Perhaps you're right. Perhaps I'm all wet. We can only wait and see.

If most of conservative America is truly represented here, then we are already screwed. It’s shameful, all of the rabid rhetoric and name calling that flies around these parts.

I'm not sure why you would say that. If Thompson pulls it out, we're in excellent shape. If one of the RINOs does, we'll have to wait and see what the overall consensus is. As for name calling, I try to mention what I have seen in a candidate that turns me off. Rudy isn't pro-life. There are several other stances that drive me nuts. Romney is a problem for me, because it appears he's had a come to Jesus (political) moment and I can't trust his new found stances on certain issues. As for McCain, I've watched the guy rip Bush a new one since he took office. And it pains me to say that as much as I have disliked what Bush has done on a number of issues, McCain's views were even worse IMO. He's not only not a team player, he's a maverick with berzerk alternative views. Worst of all, he actually teamed up with Ted Kennedy on several issues. Now he wants my vote? LOL, that will be the day.

I’m sure the left is eating this up. What was the saying about standing together, or falling separately...?

Perhaps the left is eating it up. And perhaps for the first time in a long time, they are coming to realize that their agenda is not going to be advanced by a Republican. And if that is true, it doesn't bode well for them. When the Republicans figure out that a RINO isn't going to win them anything from here on out, they may just stand up and support Conservative candidates. And the Dems won't be laughing long if that is the case.

California will be voting for a new governor in 2010. If the national level characters begin to drop like flies, perhaps the Republican leadership in California will get off their duffs, and support the next conservative to run. If they don't, Californians are going to bolt the RP in numbers that will be stagering. And they should.

We've tried third parties and it hasn't worked. We've communicated our disattisfaction with the leadership on a number of issues and it hasn't worked. We've actually voted in people who should have run as democrats, and that hasn't worked. Conservatism has lost at every turn. I guess it's finally time to put the party on notice. Run RINOs and look for a new base.

There are people out here looking for a conservative to vote for. If there isn't one why bother to vote for someone who will rule against you again and again? It sure hasn't worked in California. It sure hasn't worked in Washington, D.C. I think it's time to try something else. We'd be pretty stupid of we continued to try the same things and expected a different outcome.

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