Posted on 10/25/2007 4:34:11 AM PDT by Renfield
Like undertakers complaining that a predicted flu epidemic failed to generate any business, the drive-by media and the hurricane forecasters are kicking themselves over the big nothing the 2007 hurricane season turned out to be. They know full well without the pain and suffering from these weather events: budgets may get cut and ratings tank. The depravity of it all is simply stunning.
2007 is the second year in a row after Katrina that hurricane forecasts have been completely wrong. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Research Division, and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, forecast a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above normal Atlantic hurricane season.
The August update persisted with the wrong forecast, projecting an above average hurricane season.
NOAA based their prediction for an above-normal 2007 season on the combination of two main climate factors, what they describe generally as
"1.) the continuation of conditions that have been conducive to hurricanes since 1995 and
"2.) the continued La Niña-like pattern of tropical convection.
"In addition, temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea remain well above average (0.56oC).
"This combination of conditions is known to produce high levels of Atlantic hurricane activity." Now we know this combination of conditions sometimes produces high levels of hurricane activity and sometimes not. It appears that NOAA has no idea how to forecast the intensity of hurricane seasons months or even weeks ahead. In 2004 they predicted a 50% chance of above normal, 2005 70%. Not that much better than a coin flip.
NOAA's Atlantic Ocean Meteorological Laboratory has complied Accumulated Cyclone Energy indexes (ACE) since1851. ACE expresses the activity of Atlantic hurricane seasons. ACE is calculated using an approximation of the energy of a tropical system over its lifetime. Energy levels are taken every six-hour period. The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACEs for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical activity in the season. It is the most useful measure of seasonal activity since it measures not only the number of storms but their intensity.
The graph below shows season ACE indexes for the last fifty years from 1947. While there has been wide variability, the linear trend line is nearly horizontal. As of October 24, the 2007 ACE index stood at 62. 2006 came in at 78 and 2005 at 248. From 1970 to 1994 the ACE index was below 100 in all but two years.
Data Source: NOAA Atlantic Ocean Laboratory, Graph: The Author
While the season doesn't officially end for another few weeks, the graph below shows that tropical events decrease drastically through October making it unlikely that there will be a spate of hurricanes to redeem their forecasts.
Source: Ryan Maue, Florida State University, Department of Meteorology
After Katrina, we were bombarded with baseless assertions that global warming was causing increased hurricane activity. As Rush Limbaugh predicted, for the first time in history, the Democrats and their friends in the drive by media politicized a natural disaster, successfully blaming President Bush for Katrina. In spite of this spin campaign, the citizens of Louisiana knew exactly where the blame should be, with Democrat Governor Kathleen Blanco and elected Republican Bobby Jindal.
It is possible that politicization of natural disasters by the Democrats might be influencing the the recent hurricane season forecasts. How else can they explain their rationale for issuing above average hurricane season predictions in 2006 and 2007,while predictions for 2004 and 2005 were mere coin flips. These forecast are far to important to be tainted by petty partisan politics. The President should appoint a commission to investigate political influence of these predictions. He needs to get NOAA personnel under oath and ask them what factors they use to make these predictions.
The Democrats and the media should end their politicization of natural disasters. This is counter-productive and dangerous. Is this too much to ask?
Dissapointed me, too.
I love hurricanes and all kinds of so-called harsh weather.
And we could really use the rain.
What’s the big deal...it’s obviously due to ‘global warming’ doing its own thing!
So Rove got the last laugh after all. Not only did he quit, he turned off his hurricane machine.
Where are all the “global warming causing massive increase in hurricanes” preachers now? Still hiding out in their storm shelters (in other words, with their heads in the ground-or up their rectum?)
Interesting point. Hurricanes are treated as bad things, when a sizable percentage of the Southeasts rainfall is tropical storm dependent.
BINGO!
You’re so right about the rain. Thank God it’s raining here in SC as I’m typing this. NC and GA could definitely use the rain too- but not the damaging winds!!
LOLOL
I’m going home and I’m taking my toys with me.
They don't know just how much they don't understand. But it's imperative we make economic policy on the "research" and "knowledge" of these same charlatans.
It’s finally raining in NC today too - started yesterday - blessed, wonderful rain!!!!
Yes, I’d pay money to see just one of the “hurricane prophets” to come on tv and say, alas, they were mistaken (again) bigtime about their “predictions” of hurricane season intensity. And once again it shows that man can simply not predict a season’s weather much less predict the global weather for the next 100 years as Algore tries to do in his global warming scam.
The Dems would hold hearings in Congress when they were in the minority - where just they attended.....on some issue they wanted publicized....
Why can’t the Repubs hold hearings on the truth about global warming???? And how bogus it is????
Have a friend in SC and it has been dry for you guys there. Glad to hear it’s finally raining.
I love listening to the overly-dramatic background music on the Weather Channel when their massive “HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE” flashes come one. It’s become nothing more than manufactured drama, entertainment, and fortune-telling.
In no other profession could one be wrong the majority of the time and still keep their job.
Applly NOW to be a hurricane forecaster!!
How do I get a job as a hurricane forecaster?
Does it pay more than a school teacher?
Is it full time?
Are there ANY qualifications?
Are there any jop performance criteria?
Is it a job for life?
I bet it’s a political plum and P.C. as can be!
Oldplayer
Of course, I live in swamp city, Houston where you have to live in plastic bags.
Until they stop basing their predictions on a political agenda they will continue to be wrong,or if they are right it will be pure chance.
Throw enough mud against a wall and some is sure to stick!
Down here in the Bahamas (Exumas) we are VERY pleased with the weather this summer and are keeping our fingers crossed until the hurricane seasons ends Nov. 1st. Got about 10” of rain in one day last week.
Cheers
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