Rasmussen: New Hampshire Republican Primary (McCain SURGING)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 12/19/07 | Scott Rasmussen

[Norman Bates]

In many places around the country, Mitt Romney is facing a challenge from Mike Huckabee. However, in New Hampshire, Huck-a-mania never took hold. But, following endorsements from the Manchester Union Leader, the Boston Globe, and Senator Joe Lieberman, John McCain is now challenging Romney in the state he won eight years ago.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state shows Romney with 31% support, McCain at 27% and no one else close. Rudy Giuliani attracts 13% and Huckabee barely reaches double digits at 11%. This is the first time any candidate has been within single digits of Romney in several months. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary bounce or a lasting change.

Before the latest endorsements, it was Romney 33% and McCain 18%. In late-November, Romney led by nineteen points. Earlier in November he was up by fifteen.

McCain also gained ground in Iowa over the past week. However, starting from a much lower base, he remains a distant third. Rasmussen Reports polling data released today shows that Huckabee’s support has receded a bit in Iowa so that Romney is once again tied for the lead. Huckabee and Romney are also tied in South Carolina. Huckabee still leads nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Among Democrats, new polling released today shows slight leads for Clinton in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

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COMPLETELY SKEWED POLLS...DON’T BELIEVE IT...

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Rasmussen cooks his polls. Lee Atwater before he died went through the whole deal how Rasmussen cooks his polls to get the polling he wants. Then closer to the election he will tighten them up or even change who is leading so on election day he can say he called it. He thought Rasmussen was one of the most unethical pollsters out there.

[LS]

Agree. I think Fred is dead, Huck has peaked, and the race will soon return to a Romney/Rudy battle for the top two spots in the first four primaries, except IA where, Rudy will come in 3 or 4. After that however, Rudy has pretty big leads everywhere (except the Huck boomlet in FL, which, if what I think is happening actually pans out, that will fade, too).

[codercpc]

In your opinion, who do you think comes out on top, Rudy or Romney?

As a Rudy fan (much to the chagrin of most here) I hope it is Rudy, but that hope is fading. McCain and Romney are my other two picks, but I would be happy with any of them (Huck leaves ALOT to be desired).

[JohnnyZ]

Of Rudy McRomney, I’d say McCain has the best chance.

[codercpc]

Contrary to many here, I think that John McCain could truly be the consensus candidate, and if it would go to a brokered convention (God forbid, because we would all lose in that scenario) he could get the nod.

[LS]

I still think, Mitt will win NH and probably SC. Huck apparently has peaked. One poll this morning had him down already 4 points since earlier in the week. Rudy is either #1 or #2 in MI, #2 in NH, tied with Fred at #3 in SC, but Fred is fading badly in EVERY SINGLE STATE POLL since November.

Rudy is still up quite a bit in FL, huge in NJ, NY, CA, IL, and was up in AZ. So if he gets a #2 in NH, #3 in IA and SC, #1 in MI, it's over. Rudy will sweep Super Tues.

Mitt can win if he runs the table on the first four (or even drops IA then runs the table) then comes in #2 in FL.

McCain's path to victory is tougher. He has to come in #3 in every one of the first four primaries, #2 in FL, IL, CA, and win AZ, then he might win some of the midwest/western states.

I think you have reason for guarded optimism, and if Mitt is the candidate, he'll get my full support.

[Norman Bates]

LS please there’s no way with a straight face you can tell me Rudy’s up in AZ anymore, esp. with McCain surging everywhere. You should drop that line.

[LS]

I’m just going by the last poll I saw. If you have a newer one, please post. I’m FROM AZ and he is not as popular as you might think there.

[Norman Bates]

No, I have no newer poll. Arizona is not a swing or early primary state so it is not polled often.

You ought to consider this which is after the poll you refer to: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1934696/posts

[LS]

Yeah, that’s a good one. I have no doubt McCain would beat Hillary in AZ.

[JCEccles]

Agree. I think Fred is dead, Huck has peaked, and the race will soon return to a Romney/Rudy battle for the top two spots in the first four primaries

You didn't mention McCain. He's climbing in Iowa and coming on strong in NH.

[mossyoaks]

I think it would be great to see McCain get the nom. He’s worked his tail off for it & waited patiently while GWB has had his time. McCain is certainly the most qualified.

I guess some of y’all don’t like him because you think he’s a moderate (altho’ he’s more conservative than he gets credit for), but if you think about it, the only way for the various factions of governemnt to work together is for them to come together closer to the middle. I really do think that McCain is pretty stubbornly conservative on some issues & more flexible on others. He just seems to choose the battles he’s willing to fight & others he won’t. He’s pro-life & strongly supports the military. Those are probably the issues that matter most to me too - is it the same for you? (Don’t sweat the immigration thing - he’s already gotten burned on that - but learned a big lesson so that’s a good thing!).

Yeah, McCain is a guy who can bring our party together, our government together & maybe even our country together in a lot of ways. The only way we’re going to win any independent votes & maybe even some dem votes is w/ a candidate people feel will work for them too.

Forget all the other guys & vote for McCain - and let’s make sure we’ll WIN this thing!

[Kevmo]

Intrade has a new set of contracts, covering the possibility of brokered conventions. Bid is at 15%, ask is at 25%, earlier sold at 50%.

Brokered Party Conventions in 2008

REP.NOM.2008.BROKERED
The 2008 Republican Pres. Nominee to be selected at a Brokered Convention M 15.0 25.0 50.0 2 new

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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

[JohnnyZ]

Intrade has a new set of contracts, covering the possibility of brokered conventions. Bid is at 15%, ask is at 25%, earlier sold at 50%.

I don't buy into the market predictions on politics.

They should be better than taking the straight result of a single poll, or even of a poll aggregate, because they use the wisdom of crowds -- but the wisdom of crowds thing is predicated on people making individual judgements. Instead, you get a herd mentality, which results in improper valuations.

Much better is something like the Tarrance Group(??), where experienced pollsters examine detailed data, with experience and judgements and project a finish with great accuracy. Or, using my own political judgement, and my own reading of polls. I don't have as much data as those guys but I have almost as much as something like Intrade, and much better judgement than the masses of people who bought Britney Spears CDs imo.

Cheers.

[Jim Noble]

Wow...Thompson at only 3%?

I do not believe now, and never have believed, that Fred Thompson had a prayer of being elected President in 2008.

The only thing I've ever gotten here for this opinion is abuse, but I still think it's true.

He's the only GOP candidate that can make old, tired Hillary look young and fresh.

[LS]

I just don’t see him having any enthusiastic support. Maybe I’m missing something.

[Kevmo]

I’ll be answering your post on the efficacy thread, since it seems aimed towards efficacy of prediction markets.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

[mainerforglobalwarming]

A McCain-Liberman ticket would destroy hillary. They’d get 60% of the vote. My dream ticket of Allen-Santorum propably 30% of the vote.

[Anselma]

“Looks like the dimocRATS are switching from Huckabee to McQueeg.”

You said it! The Dims would appreciate a Bible-thumper like Huck- makes a great straw man for their effort, but McCain migt make a good one, also. Sow discord and division- that’ll be their game.

I dislike McCain more & more: his temper is scary, his original unprincipled “stand” on immigration, and most importantly, his really, really stupid sub-genius McCain/Feingold Bill, which, BTW, is the reason, other than these primaries, the Parties don’t really give a poop what their partypeople think. Nice goin’ there, McQueeg. How’re them strawberries doin’? Sure, he WAS a hero for being the last man standing in a Veetnam POW camp- Great for him... It’s a new era, Jack. What’s he done for us, lately? Other than obstruck waterboarding, obstruct effective reform of the illegal alien invasion, and make it impossible to speak out in the last (crucial) days of a Federal election? What a jerk.

Romney is principled, intelligent, gathers advice from ALL points of view, is honest, can change his mind based on principle and not get mad about it. He’s bright, honest, a businessman, patient, tolerant of opposing views, a coalition-builder, AND, AND yes, I’ll admit, telegenic. But don’t hold that against him. The guy was born smooth. Still, his ideas and techniques are sweet.