McCain nudges ahead Sunday night in Florida [McCain 28%, Romney 27%]

Southern Political Report ^ | January 28, 2008

[SE Mom]

My contempt for Charlie Crist is boundless.

[ontap]

Here’s what another poll says!

Romney expands lead in Florida [Romney 35%; McCain 28%]

[ari-freedom]

I bet you didn’t say that last week when romney was ahead.

[JohnnyZ]

this says registered voters not likely voters. unreliable,

Learn to read:

789 registered Florida voters who have already voted by early or absentee in the Florida Republican presidential primary, or who plan to vote on Election Day

[SQUID]

I don’t get that. How is McCain nudging anything?

[Plutarch]

Pollster.com's compilation has Romney up on McCain. It hasn't included this poll yet, but a 1 point move won't change the average much.

[Common Tator]

The data have been weighted for age, gender, race, party affiliation and geographical distribution across Florida.

The question is how do they weight the poll. Are young people going to turn out? Or NOT? Which way did they weight the resuls.. a big medium or small young person turn out.

Are there going to be more women voting than men? How do they know. ARe people in the pan handle going to turn out in bigger, smaller or teh same numbers as those in Orlando? How do they know?

The polling companies do not have good information on turn outs of groups. The individual campaigs do. They have been canvasing door to door for weeks. And the campaign volunteers have been supplying the campaigns with their results.

That is why the campaign polls are so accurate and media polls are not.

I say watch what the candidates do. The one that goes nasty negative is in trouble. That is what his internal polls are telling him. Everyone knows that negative nasty campaigns generally do not work. Voters don't like a nasty campaigner. And campaigns amost always use surrogates to make nasty charges. That is unless they are way behind.. See Hillary Clinton in South Carolina.

Then they go nasty negative... they don't have much to lose.

I would say that McCain is in trouble.

[sandude]

After first ballots, Huckabee would deliver his delegates to McCain, putting him over the top, in exchange for the VP spot.

I'm not sure it works that way. I thought someone here indicated that after the first or second ballot the delegates would no longer be tied to a candidate and could vote for whoever they wished. Not sure, perhaps someone can clarify what the rules are.

[JohnnyZ]

I bet you didn’t say that last week when romney was ahead.

Romney was edging ahead in the polls last week. So he went ahead in the futures market, at least in Rasmussen's. Now McCain's edging ahead. So he goes ahead in the futures market. It's a little better than a poll average, since it's polls + conventional wisdom, but it's still nothing worth paying attention to.

[mwl1]

New poll out at NRO - Survey USA (which RCP does use) overnight tracking has Romney over McCain 32-31 with movement to Romney, not McCain.

[killermedic]

Is that real? It looks like something my three year old drew!

[JohnnyZ]

Pollster.com's compilation has Romney up on McCain.

That includes the "Datamar" poll that has Romney leading by 13.

Pretty foolish.

[Brilliant]

He was behind, now he is ahead—or so they say.

[ncalburt]

Isn't this the poll with the independents and Democrats polled too ?
It appears that this poll adjusted the data for Crist endorsement ?
So this is a formula not real polling data. As a native FL with lots of RNC relatives , Crist is not well like right now in fact he is considered a useless idiot.

[sandude]

Not sure but perhaps Huckabee’s voters in Florida are swinging over to McCain in an effort to defeat Romney.

[yoe]

John McCain put Juan Hernandez National Director of Hispanic Outreach as a non-paid advisor to his campaign. The Hernandez Open Borders stance is well known - suffice it to say McCain is not telling the truth when he says he learned his lesson about the borders from the American people.....apparently only how to pull the sweater over their heads again at some latter date.

McCain is a hero; was a prisoner of war as were thousands of other brave Americans....but the Senator is far from being forthright, liberals see him as a fine conservative and how dare anyone not recognize his patriotism etc. etc. etc. John McCain is a Hawkish Democrat period. He long ago derided his conservative base as not needing them…..McCain is far more a Kennedy Socialist/liberal than he is a Goldwater conservative/Republican. He talks tough on Iraq but his ROE preclude water boarding – call it torture…..I believe he was tortured, water boarding may be scary but it is effective when needed the most to save lives. McCain seems soft on the enemy’s desire to kill Americans, soft on their torture of Americans. McCain for many reasons is not the real deal….only the MSM is telling us that.

Mitt, it’s yours to lose………………

[newfreep]

A brokered convention would allow huckster to "sell" his delegates to mcInsane who would get the nomination.

Only with romney winning outright are we able to keep mcnasty from winning.

[kjo]

Me too. If McCain is the nominee, I’m through. I will vote third party.

[lone star annie]

I’m with you. I will not stay home, but I will not vote in the Presidential race or will vote third party. I refuse to endorse a man who has stabbed me in the back. Backstabbers are not to be tolerated. These politicians that support him will get stabbed in the back too.

Reminds me of the old story of the man who picked up the snake on the road because he was hurt. He brought the snake home and nursed him back to health. When the snake was healthy, he bit the kind man on the leg. He asked the snake, “How can you do this to me after all I have done for you”

The snake replied, “You knew I was a snake when you took me in.”

[khnyny]

So basically, the fate of the nation now lies in the hands of Florida voters.

Shoot me now./s