McCain nudges ahead Sunday night in Florida [McCain 28%, Romney 27%]

Southern Political Report ^ | January 28, 2008

[Plutarch]

This is the InsiderAdvantage poll, which RCP uses for the averages. Their poll from yesterday had a 25-25 tie, so it represents a 1% movement.

[Brilliant]

Hope they are wrong... All true Republicans get out and vote!

[ari-freedom]

intrade is also going for mccain now

[RushingWater]

Brokered convention please.

[counterpunch]

A 1 point move, not 1%.
Most other polls are showing Romney pulling away in the last 48 hours.

[Names Ash Housewares]

Pray for a McCain defeat folks.

Romney may not be anything to crow about.

But man folks. McCain?

God help us.

[azcap]

I would give Romney, Paul and Huckabee a few points, and take away a few from McCain and Rudy on a weekend poll, based on who is home and answers the phone on weekends. You can adjust a poll for age but they don’t adjust a poll for shut-ins. McCains base is the the shut-in crowd.

[ASA Vet]

Mitt Romney has opened up a seven point lead over John McCain in Florida

[Names Ash Housewares]

“Brokered convention please.”

How often does that happen?
Anyone know?

Is it a real possiblity?

Or is it like hoping the Easter Bunny will save us?

[GraniteStateConservative]

The value of the endorsements to McCain were GOTV on Tuesday. Crist and Martinez know where McCain’s voters are since McCain really doesn’t know.

[dforest]

I hope Florida doesn’t make me stay home.

If McCain gets this nomination, not only will I stay home, but I am done with the GOP.

[counterpunch]

No brokered convention.
It won’t happen, and if it did, it would result in a McCain-Huckabee ticket, guaranteed.

See, it’s already a two man race, and so for this to happen it would mean both Romney and McCain would need to be below 1,191 delegates, with Huckabee holding the remainder. After first ballots, Huckabee would deliver his delegates to McCain, putting him over the top, in exchange for the VP spot.

Wishing for a brokered convention in hopes of any other outcome would be like hoping the Super Bowl ends in a tie and the Miami Dolphins are declared the champions.

[MAexile]

The data have been weighted for age, gender, race, party affiliation and geographical distribution across Florida.

Party affiliation? Correct me if I’m mistaken, but isn’t Florida a closed primary? Why are they adjusting data for something that shouldn’t make a difference (in other words, the sample should be 100% Republicans, any respondent that isn’t should be removed the data pool).

[mwl1]

this says registered voters not likely voters. unreliable, and I don’t give a damn in RCP uses it.

[counterpunch]

Easter Bunny. see #12 above.

[Witch-king of Angmar]

If the poll on saturday showed a dead even race this 1% movement could well be just a statistical glitch.

[JohnnyZ]

intrade is also going for mccain now

Intrade just follows the latest polls and conventional wisdom. It's a pitiful excuse for a market.

[Reaganesque]

This is a poll of registered voters. The poll posted earlier that showed Romney with a 7 point lead was a poll of likely Republican voters. There's the difference right there.

[ari-freedom]

yes but this is florida. cubans, seniors and people who appreciate his military service will go for mccain. Also, Romney isn’t exactly the clearest conservative in the race and not as well known.

[Dansong]

Liberal, senile and angry is no way to go thru life, son.