Posted on 01/28/2008 1:00:38 PM PST by GOPGuide
Geography Surveyed: Florida Data Collected: 01/27/2008 Release Date: 01/28/2008 8:15 AM ET Sponsors: WFLA-TV Tampa, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola
Eve of FL GOP Primary, Clear Divisions Among Republicans, But No Clear Frontrunner: 24 Hours till voting ends in the Florida GOP Primary, it is easy to describe who is voting for Mitt Romney and who is voting for John McCain, but difficult to tell which of the two will win the Winner-Take-All Primary, according to SurveyUSA's 9th tracking poll, conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Mobile. Romney has 32%, McCain 31% at this hour, effectively tied. Rudolph Giuliani and Mike Huckabee are far back. Romney leads by 17 points among voters focused on the Economy, and leads by 24 points among voters focused on Immigration. McCain leads by 14 points among voters focused on Terrorism and by 22 points among voters focused on Iraq. Romney leads by 16 among Conservatives. McCain leads by 28 among Moderates. Romney leads by 14 in SE FL. McCain leads Romney by 14 in NW FL, where Huckabee, showing twice the strength he shows elsewhere in Florida, is six points behind McCain. Romney and McCain are effectively tied in NE FL and Central FL. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll one week ago, completed after McCain won South Carolina, but before Fred Thompson dropped out, both Romney and McCain are up significantly. But Romney is up slightly more, and may have the slightest additional momentum at the wire.
Filtering / Timing: 2,000 Florida adults were interviewed 01/27/08. Of them, 1,790 were registered to vote. Of them 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to be Republicans who had either already voted in the GOP Primary, using early voting, or who were likely to vote at the precinct on 01/29/08. Among those who said they had already voted: Romney 36%, McCain 31%. Among those who had not yet voted, but who told SurveyUSA that their mind was made-up, and they would not change it before the Primary: McCain 32%, Romney 32%. SurveyUSA will endeavor to conduct some additional interviews Monday night 01/28/08, to see if there is unanticipated last-minute movement in the contest.
Interactive Tracking Graphs: Click on the "Triangle-T" where-ever you see it to open SurveyUSA's exclusive interactive tracking graphs. SurveyUSA is the only opinion pollster to release interactive tracking graphs with its election poll results. See Romney catch McCain among women voters here. See Giuliani and McCain change places, among Moderate voters, here. See Giuliani's support in SE FL erode from 54% to 16% here. See McCain go from 12% in Central FL to 34%, here.
Remember alot of these polls were BEFORE the gov backed Mccain.. they said its worth atleast a point or two in the polls, its WAY WAY WAY too close. Besides, polls have been so off lately - I don’t know what to believe.
They also dont take into account early voting.
600,000 Republicans in Florida have already voted.
How could ANYBODY vote against that amendment? Even the democrats. It blows my mind.
Some or most polls include “already voted” people in their sample.
Even if you polled illegal aliens only, I'll bet 90% of them would agree.
Something I have not heard mentioned . . . we know there is early voting and we know the pollsters are asking about people who have already voted — and when they voted.
It would be a good test of sampling methodology to examine if there is a change in result for night to night measures of the numbers for who already voted prior to some particular date.
That parameter should be constant within MOE. If it is varying then there are methodology problems.
I read somewhere around here that Romney has a lead in the early voting.
There are few issues he ever had in common with them. For the couple he did, he simply says that he was wrong, and has figured it out, and he wishes his opponents could also come to their senses.
VISTA 500 POLL...
Romney gonna take it!
Vista 500
Mike Cover
Ex-Foist Freeper Illinois “Prez”
Now sitting by the dock in Sebastian, Fl.
....watching the returns...
Love yuz all!!!
Maybe not. Polls have been notoriously UNRELIABLE this year. One big reason is that more people than ever (including me) have NO home phone since we use only cell phones. Therefore pollsters can't call us.
According to the Rasmussen poll, 79% of McCain voters have already voted. The number for Romney is identical. So early voting may be a tie.
It will depend on the 11% who are undecided or if any supporters of Huckabee or Rudy jump ship and support either McCain or Romney.
It’s going to be a long night.
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