Posted on 03/24/2008 8:54:26 PM PDT by Red Steel
Monday, March 24, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows ongoing volatility in the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Nationally, Hillary Clinton now holds a very slight advantage over Barack Obama, 46% to 44%. For the past week-and-a-half, Obama’s support has been between 44% and 47% every day. Clinton’s support has ranged from 42% to 46% (see recent daily results). In discussing the Pennsylvania Primary, Governor Ed Rendell indicates that the Clinton campaign is ready to keep fighting to the end of the primaries and beyond.
Looking ahead to the General Election in November, John McCain continues to lead both potential Democratic opponents. McCain leads Barack Obama 50% to 41% and Hillary Clinton 49% to 42% (see recent daily results). New polling shows McCain narrowly behind both Democrats in Nevada while McCain has a solid lead over both in North Carolina. March has been a good month for John McCain. But, a Rasmussen Reports video notes that a good month of March doesn’t get you to the White House, that requires a good day in November. There is at least one major issue standing between McCain and a victory celebration in November.
On Monday, McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 42%. Obama’s reviews are 46% favorable and 52% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 42% favorable, 55% unfavorable (see recent daily results).
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 247 to 229. Over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. He leads both Democrats in Georgia and Arkansas. Both Democrats continue to lead in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and California (see summary of recent state general election polling).
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.
Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a - % chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at - %. Market data also suggests that Obama has a - % chance to become the next President. Expectations for McCain to become President are at - % while Clinton’s prospects are at - %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
That's why the Dem primary fight has to last to the end of August. Both the Dem candidates will have hammered each other to pulp by then. Go Hillary Go Obama!
Big gains by McCain.
I agree, I think Rush has been tooting his own horn here. I don't think it's been as effective as touted.
BTW, didn't most republican cross-overs in Texas vote for Obama? I remember seeing the numbers 53% for Obama, 47% for Hillary, but can't remember where. And didn't Obama draw even in the final delegate count?
The stuff about Wright came out after the Texas and Ohio primaries, and after Hillary made that incomprehensible offer of the V.P. slot to Obama. The Wright vids came from Hillary's people, IMO. They offered the V.P. slot to Barack, he flipped them off, Clinton machine went nuclear through the media with the Wright tapes--getting the media to pick them up (after all, they were out there for anyone to see, but the lamestreams wouldn't show them).
Anyway, the effects of Op. Chaos are being exaggerated by everyone IMO.
The strategy of Op Chaos is to cross over and vote for Hillary in the primary and its goal is for Hillary to win the primary.
The chaos in the democrat party is being caused, not by Op Chaos, but by the dems themselves.
If Op Chaos achieves its goal, Hillary may end up being POTUS---a horrible outcome. But, as Rush says, "it's very entertaining."
Operation Chaos is idiocy concocted by a slick showman.
You’re right. It can get a lot worse for either Hillary or Obama.
Onward Chaos!
LOL. This may well be an election where we have an utterly incompetent candidate winning by a landslide. Lessee, when did that happen before? Uh, how big was Hoover’s victory?
If Obama gets the nomination the Clintons will destroy him during the general election and the fact he is a racist America hating nut job is already seared, seared I tell you, into the minds of the voters.
America has enough problems without the likes of Obama and Jeremiah Wright, the Crack-pot preacher.
The fight for conservatism begins January next year, against the Jerry Ford with the bad temper.
Not from these media outlets.
Sure. We take stuff leaked from the left all the time. Do you think they are all happy campers?
It doesn't really matter that we think little of Obama and Clinton. The media will close ranks behind whomever the Dim nominee is, and against the pubbie nominee. The polls are just an illusion, just as they were a comparable period ahead of the 2000 election.
As before and always, polls released today will matter very little on election day.
“BTW, didn’t most republican cross-overs in Texas vote for Obama? I remember seeing the numbers 53% for Obama, 47% for Hillary, but can’t remember where. And didn’t Obama draw even in the final delegate count?”
Yes. The Hillary haters are cancelling out the chaos voters.
“The stuff about Wright came out “
Hmmm. The stuff about Wright has been ‘out there’ for a while. A few weeks back Hannity pushed it in a Sunday news show and next Friday Obama was getting forced to defend himself.
... and the fact is that the lamestream media NEVER showed the Wright tapes.
Sean Hannity is not a Clinton staffer. This stuff has been out there for a while ... this and other Obama stuff ...
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2008/02/che-candidate.html
More in that vein ... Nation of Islam members staff Obama’s campaign - “Obama has employed and continues to employ nation of islam members in high positions in his Illinois and US Senate campaign and office staffs.”
More stuff ...
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2008/02/obama-files-immigration-corruption.html
Obama is a goldmine of left-liberal extremism. It didnt take a Hillary staffer to figure this out ... so the only rel question is whether the media gives it more play because its a Democratic primary vs a Dem vs GOP race.
So far, the press has tried to minimize it in any case.
I’ll grant Hillary one thing: She fights harder and dirtier than McCain will.
But there is a downside to the fawning liberal media: Democrat candidates do not undergo the intense scrutiny ("vetting") that Republicans experience. A media darling like Obama has lots of undiscovered (and purposely hidden) skeletons in his closet. A drawn out primary battle tends to empty the closets.
SurveyUSA, which has been polling McCain vs. Hillary or Obama for months, has been VERY consistent in showing him winning enough states in the EC to win---KY, AR, FL, VA, NM, IA, and, yes, in some surveys, OH and tied in WI. This was before all the negative stuff came out about Hillobama.
So the media, which could not elect Algore, and which could not elect Kerry, probably won't elect Hillobama unless McCain commits political suicide.
I didn’t say Hannity was a “Clinton staffer.” I said, trace the leaks back and I guarantee there is a Clinton involved.
I still think the GOP and Conservatives lose. We lose by nominating McCain, and McCain could very well be toasted once the Democrats have a nominee.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.