Posted on 04/24/2008 2:48:55 PM PDT by The_Macallan
We all hear how "close" the Democratic Primaries are and how much Obama is so dominant in the hearts and minds of the average everyday Democratic voter.
Well if we looked at the Obama v. Clinton match-up in terms of the electoral college - we'd see a very different outlook.
Presidential elections are won or lost based on Electoral College votes, not based on "delegates", "superdelegates", party caucuses or total popular vote.
States that hold Primary Elections allow the VOTERS to choose their candidate, as opposed to states that hold caucuses in which voters don't go to the polls but rather Party-insiders do the voting.
And so to get a clearer picture of the Democratic outlook - I looked through the lens of Primary Election results only and then counted those results in terms of Electoral Votes for each of those states to see whether Obama or Clinton would have an easier time gaining the 270 necessary Electoral Votes to become President.
And so by tallying up the States won in the Primary Elections (where voters decide the result, not party-insiders) by Obama and Clinton based on their Electoral College votes - here are the results:
STATE - Electoral Votes (Primary Election Winner)
Alabama - 9 (Obama )
Connecticut - 7 (Obama )
Delaware - 3 (Obama )
District Of Columbia - 3 (Obama )
Georgia - 15 (Obama )
Illinois - 21 (Obama )
Louisiana - 9 (Obama )
Maryland - 10 (Obama )
Mississippi - 6 (Obama )
Missouri - 11 (Obama )
South Carolina - 8 (Obama )
Utah - 5 (Obama )
Vermont - 3 (Obama )
Virginia - 13 (Obama )
Wisconsin - 10 (Obama )
133 Primary Electoral Votes For Obama.
STATE - Electoral Votes (Primary Election Winner)
Arizona - 10 (Clinton )
Arkansas - 6 (Clinton )
California - 55 (Clinton )
Florida - 27 (Clinton )
Massachusetts - 12 (Clinton )
Michigan - 17 (Clinton )
New Hampshire - 4 (Clinton )
New Jersey - 15 (Clinton )
New Mexico - 5 (Clinton )
New York - 31 (Clinton )
Ohio - 20 (Clinton )
Oklahoma - 7 (Clinton )
Pennsylvania - 21 (Clinton )
Rhode Island - 4 (Clinton )
Tennessee - 11 (Clinton )
Texas - 34 (Clinton )
277 Primary Electoral votes For Clinton.
Woah! Looks like Clinton has a HUGE lead when it comes to where it counts state-by-state - 1) Actual voters and 2) Electoral Count.
Oh - well - what about the Caucus states. Shirley all the states won by Obama would make a big difference wouldn't it?
Okay - let's add in the Caucus states and add up those Electoral College Votes too. However - an odd thing happened in Texas, they had a Primary AND a Caucus - and the results were split between Obama and Clinton, Clinton won the Primary and Obama won the Caucus. So to be fair, I'll give EACH of them the full amount of Texas Electoral Votes:
STATE - Electoral Votes (Caucus Election Winner)
Alaska - 3 (Obama )
Colorado - 9 (Obama )
Hawaii - 4 (Obama )
Idaho - 4 (Obama )
Iowa - 7 (Obama )
Kansas - 6 (Obama )
Maine - 4 (Obama )
Minnesota - 10 (Obama )
Nebraska - 5 (Obama )
North Carolina - 15 (Obama )
Texas - 34 (Obama )
Washington - 11 (Obama )
Wyoming - 3 (Obama )
115 Caucus Electoral Votes For Obama.
Nevada - 5 (Clinton)
5 Caucus Electoral Votes For Clinton.
And so what's the grand total - in terms of Electoral Votes for each?
Clinton: 282 Total Electoral Votes
Obama: 248 Total Electoral Votes
* remember, Texas is counted once for each candidate.
Personally - I actually happen to think the State Primary Election results are FAR more telling than the party-insider polls done for State Caucus elections.
ETA: And if you look just at "swing" states who had Primary Elections, those states that are going to be the main battlegrounds and ususally determine the outcome of the elections:
Ohio - 20 (Clinton )
Pennsylvania - 21 (Clinton )
Florida - 27 (Clinton )
New Hampshire - 4 (Clinton )
Wisconsin - 10 (Obama )
Bottomline: Don't quit Hill! You can still win this!!
LOL!
Barack Hussein Obama is not electable. End of story.
NC is a caucus state?
Very interesting. And don’t call me Shirley. :)
I will accept these calculations only if certified by Louis Farrakhan ;-)
FOCUS GROUP AND POLL SAYS OBAMA FAR WORSE THAN HILLARY IN GENERAL:
. . . Also, Republican pollster Whit Ayres told me that four focus groups he’s conducted among blue-collar whites in Michigan and Missouri show “they are open to voting for Hillary Clinton, but there’s no way in hell they are going for Obama. It’s cultural.
“They just don’t think he’s a patriotic American. It’s the flag pin, his church, his wife’s statement that most Americans are ‘mean.’ As one woman said in one of these groups, ‘I don’t think he bleeds red, white and blue.’”
Ayres also polled Tennessee — a GOP-leaning state — for Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) and found that Clinton would lose to McCain by 8 points, but that Obama would lose by 20 points. Twenty-five percent of Democrats said they would not vote for Obama. . . .
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/obama_is_wounded_but_clinton_m.html
Why?
1. Because Hillary's supporters prefer McCain to Obama, and will either stay home or vote McCain.
2. Hillary will work against Obama in the hopes of running in 2012. (in her dreams!)
3. Beating Obama in the election will take him out as a future candidate, and will brand his as a "loser."
4. Defeating Hillary will end the influence of the Clintons.
Good seeing you here Mac.
In the case of the two Dem. candidates, I think ARFCOM wisdom is turned on its head & the correct answer is “get neither”!
Later buddy,
NYPatriot
Dang - saw that post and had to look up at the top of the screen to see if ARFCom changed its color schema again...
I’m becoming more convinced that the Dim candidate will win here in Tennessee when November rolls around.
Only flaw with this argument is that Obama would lost NY or CA. Oh well, anyone who refers to Hildabeast as Hill, must have hots for her.
One has to look at it the other way....That every for Obama was AGAINST Hillary who was suppose to be "THE ONLY CANDIDATE"...the "Darling of the Party".
His wins...and his "close ones" really speaks volumes.
LOL
The difference is even more pronounced if you look at the states the Democrats have to win in November. If we say, for the sake of argument, that a winning Democrat strategy would keep the same states won in 2004 and add Ohio, Florida and Utah, let’s see who won those states in the primary:
STATE - Electoral Votes (Primary Election Winner)
Connecticut - 7 (Obama )
Delaware - 3 (Obama )
District Of Columbia - 3 (Obama )
Illinois - 21 (Obama )
Maryland - 10 (Obama )
Vermont - 3 (Obama )
Wisconsin - 10 (Obama )
Hawaii - 4 (Obama )
Kansas - 6 (Obama )
Maine - 4 (Obama )
Minnesota - 10 (Obama )
Washington - 11 (Obama )
Arkansas - 6 (Clinton )
California - 55 (Clinton )
Florida - 27 (Clinton )
Massachusetts - 12 (Clinton )
Michigan - 17 (Clinton )
New Hampshire - 4 (Clinton )
New Jersey - 15 (Clinton )
New Mexico - 5 (Clinton )
New York - 31 (Clinton )
Ohio - 20 (Clinton )
Pennsylvania - 21 (Clinton )
Rhode Island - 4 (Clinton )
92 Electoral Votes for Obama
217 Primary Electoral votes For Clinton.
Clinton has done much better in the states that the Democrats have to win and a lot of Obama’s success has come in states that will be going Republican in the Fall.
The superdelegates are going to have to decide if they want to win enough to risk the wrath of the African American community by snubbing Obama to hand the nomination to Clinton. They can’t win with Obama.
How elitist and insider it is of those horrible states to require citizens to show up for one 2-3 hour event once every 2 or 4 years!
Oh, and somehow primaries are so much more reliable since they are all run exactly the same with the same rules ... not. Some are open, and some are not. Up until now most people voted their conscience, but now people are much more open to voting strategically in the other party's primary.
So some of the primaries that went in Hillary's favor may actually have gone for Obama without strategic voting.
After all is said and done about this election it is a sad state of affairs when we are about to be clobbered by Social Security, Medicare, our crumbling infrastructure, and potential terrorist threats and all we have to choose from are Hillary, Obama, and McCain.
Yeech.
Hey, if Bambi will throw his own Grandmother under the bus, he should expect no better treatment for himself!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.