Posted on 05/22/2008 11:03:39 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
A resurgent Conservative party stormed to a crushing victory over Labour in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election early today, placing Gordon Brown’s leadership under even greater strain.
In a massive boost for David Cameron, the Tories overturned a 7,000 Labour majority to make their first gain from Labour in a by-election for 30 years — with their own 7,860 majority on a massive swing of 17.6 per cent.
For the Prime Minister, whose unpopularity was acknowledged as a central factor in the campaign, it was another huge blow after months of uninterrupted gloom.
The Conservative candidate, Edward Timpson, secured 20,539 votes, with Tamsin Dunwoody trailing with 12,679 votes.
The defeat came despite Mr Brown’s £2.7 billion U-turn over the 10p tax rate just over a week ago. His decision to respond to anger over the abolition of the 10p rate by giving all basic-rate payers a £120 tax cut was welcomed by his party, even though critics interpreted it as a bribe. But it had little impact in Crewe, seeming not to have swayed core Labour supporters.
Speaking after the result was announced, Mr Timpson, a family barrister, said: "Today vou have rejected the old politics and voted for the positive alternative put forward by the Conservative party. You have sent a signal loud and clear: that Gordon Brown does not get it, and we need a change of government."
Mr Brown and his team will today treat the setback as a predictable mid-term reverse for the governing party, and in no way on the same scale as the drubbing suffered by Labour in the local and London mayoral elections three weeks ago. They insist that the 10p climbdown was a correct response to those results but that today’s defeat should not open up another bout of party introspection.
Downing Street has in advance ruled out a reshuffle, which strategists believe would smack of panic and bring more criticism of Mr Brown for failing to see that he, rather than his Cabinet, is the main reason for Labour’s present woes. The party has also let it be known that Mr Brown intends to spend the holiday weekend in his constituency in Scotland.
But the result means that doubts over his leadership are likely to continue until he can show some sign of turning around Labour’s lowly position. Despite persistent backstage whispering, it is highly unlikely that Labour backbenchers would make any move to unseat Mr Brown. But influential MPs believe that he will have to show some signs of improvement by the conference season in the autumn to lift the question mark over his future.
Mr Brown has yet to complete his first year as Prime Minister, and even colleagues who think that Labour will find it hard to win an election with him in charge still believe that he should be given a further year to show he can make a recovery. If things have not improved by then, a challenge — or even Mr Brown leaving of his own accord — cannot be ruled out.
Hazel Blears, the Communities Secretary, last night urged the party to set its face against infighting. She told Question Time on BBC One: “It might be that the electorate have decided to send us a pretty powerful message but the last thing they want is the Labour Party to turn on itself and be obsessed with our own affairs and not what the public want.”
For Mr Cameron the result is a triumph. Labour has held Crewe since the Second World War and it is 165th on the Tory list of target seats. The outcome confounds claims that Mr Cameron has made little or no headway in the North and will be a big fillip to party morale, while at the same time spreading alarm throughout Labour’s marginal seats.
The Tories needed a swing of 8.2 per cent to win Crewe & Nantwich — greater than the 6.9 per cent swing Mr Cameron needs to win an overall Commons majority at the next general election. The turnout was higher than expected at 58.2 per cent.
There will be criticism today of Labour’s campaign. Party sources in London have distanced Mr Brown from the attempt to brand Mr Timpson a “Tory toff”, which they say diverted attention from the efforts of the Labour candidate, Ms Dunwoody.
Steve McCabe, the Labour whip who masterminded the campaign, claimed the party was “just having a bit of fun” with its stunt.
Eric Pickles, the Conservative Party’s campaign strategist, said that Labour’s mistake was to go for their core vote with the introduction of class warfare. He added: “For the first time in a long time I’ve been proud of the literature we’ve put out, and for the first time in a long time I feel deeply proud of being a Conservative.”
Mr Brown appears to have been a deeply negative factor for Labour in the contest. The Liberal Democrats have put pictures of him on their leaflets and the Tories have urged Labour supporters to use it to “send a message” to Mr Brown.
The Commons is in recess next week, limiting the opportunity for Labour MPs to meet together and plot the future, but the telephone lines are likely to be busy. Mr Brown is losing the support of his traditional allies with Brendan Barber, the TUC general secretary, accusing him of lacking a vision for his country.
The result reduces Labour’s working majority in the Commons to 65. The last time the Conservatives gained a seat from another party was in 1982, when it got back Mitcham and Morden from the SDP. But it was four years even before that when it last took a seat off Labour, winning the Ilford North by-election.
There could be another by-election as early as next month as Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, may say farewell to the Commons earlier than expected. David Cameron’s party has pencilled in June 26 or July 3 as the most likely dates for a contest in Henley-on-Thames, in an attempt to capitalise on its revival in this month’s council elections. Mr Johnson had a 12,000 majority in 2005.
The UK has elections every other month it seems. haha
This year Republicans have lost the last three special elections for House of Representatives, all on different dates.
The House of Commons has about 50% more members than our House of Representatives. Lots of opportunities for resignations, etc. Parliamentary elections are not every two years like in U.S.A.
yitbos
To revive a onetime California political slogan, if it is Brown, flush it.
The usual reason for these “by-elections” is the death of the incumbent MP. With 650+ MP’s in total, statistically its usual to have a couple of by-elections every year.
The mood in the UK has changed somewhat recently. The idea of a Conservative government is no longer unthinkable. What kind of conservatism it will be is another matter....
When parliamentary democracy is used in some of the UK’s commonwealth countries, there is much less stability because the chief stabilizer is missing or barely noticeable in society. That stabilizer, I believe, is Christianity.
The UK will become less and less stable, with its parliamentary system, the more the principles wane and the more Islam and the eastern religions becomes political forces.
I am glad for a Conservative Party victory over Labour in this bi-election, but WHAT on earth does conservatism mean anymore in the UK??
Probably “green” conservatism, and “caring” conservatism, certainly “populist” conservatism.
There are serious structural problems with the UK that urgently need to be addressed. The only problem is that the neccesary measures that need to be taken will be painful and therefore unpopular. Radical conservative programs are of little use if their promoters are voted out of office before said programs are completed.
Does this mean the Brits are starting to wake up to the threats, and get rid of the liberals, or what?
Well, certainly not what it means in the US, thats for sure.
The UK isn't Italy. The last set of elections were COUNCIL elections. This was a BY-election (what you might call a Special election I guess). We will have a General Election sometime in the next 18 months.
If America had a parliamentary system you could have a Constitution party with real power, not be forced to watch either McCain or Obama inevitably slither into office. I think your system is excellent by the way, but the two-party system is doing you few favours at the moment.
More likely to be that Brits are waking up to the fact that Gordon Brown is useless as a Prime Minister.
I’m not so sure it’s so excellent. The US system seems to perpetuate two party politics far more. Frankly, none of the other US political parties have got much chance of wielding any kind of power, even locally, while the big two and their massive political machineries are so predominant.
I do appreciate your reply, my friend. I guess you are a Brit (oops!) you might be from anywhere in the UK, no offense. I must visit sometime in this life. I have close friends in Northern Ireland.
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