Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[Jaded]

Hook me up ma’am, iff’n you pleez.

[NautiNurse]

I wonder whether the San Luis will still have a 4 star AAA rating on Sunday.

[TheMom]

Thank you & stay safe.

[According2RecentPollsAirIsGood]

Please add me to the list, Xena. We’re north of 290 about halfway between the loop and the beltway.

Haven’t seen as much boarding and taping up windows in the neighborhood as we saw during Rita. Hopefully, that’ll be ok since we didn’t either. I don’t expect we’ll flood even being near a bayou that feeds into the bay. The ground hasn’t been thoroughly saturated already like it was during Allison which was the only time we did flood.

[Centurion2000]

Geraldo Rivera plans to stay in Galveston Texas tonight in a 30’ building.. Is he DOOMED??

Dead man walking and talkin'

[Abigail Adams]

Any news on the freighter rescue? Prayers up for the stranded and the rescuers.

[penelopesire]

Not sure..but got the impression it was on Galveston Island.

We were just in South Padre this past weekend and there was still damage from Dolly. It is really beautiful down on our coasts...hope it all survives.

[dirtboy]

That’s a very different proposition than badgering a lady who lives on the mainland, 10 miles in and 29 feet above sea level.

Katina's surge in Mississippi was 28-29 feet in places. The Texas coast and Galveston Bay in particular are even more prone to amplify surge than the Mississippi coast. Jeff Masters is forecasting up to 25 feet at the coast. Contrary to what you might think, the surge at the top of Galveston Bay will be even higher than the max surge at the coast. So if the surge at the coast is OVER 25 feet, it means it could be well over 30 feet at the top of the bay. ANYONE in a shaded area in the Houston/Galveston storm surge map should get out before they know for sure they have to. By the time you know for sure, as those idiots on the Bolivar Pensinsula did, it's too late and the authorities have to risk their lives to save you, just as all your compatriots in Lousiana did when they chose to stay put. So don't lecture us, dude. Your kind of Big Easy attitude put the lives of thousands of Coast Guarders and other authorities at risk.

[sweet_diane]

I’d appreciate being on your H town list for info to relay to my sister.

[conservativeinferno]

Does anyone know why gasoline is rising when the price of oil is dropping?

I know it’s b/c of the hurricane, but why isn’t the price of oil increasing since gas is rapidly increasing? It jumped .40 in my town today.

[Renata Maree]

"I join you in prayer now, for all of those in the path of the storm -"

Thank you, Dandelion. God of infinite love and protective Father, hear our prayer. Amen.

[topher]

Maybe they will have to find some more reporters after Hurricane Ike. I do not wish any harm to them, but they are extremely foolish to stay. They may get the fear of God in the 24/36 hours...

I wonder how the News Organization will hold memorial services for these people...

Not wishing them harm, but I sure wouldn't stay. They would have my resignation...

[gracesdad]

The Richelieu Apartments were indeed destroyed in Camille and something like 8 of the 23 people who were there died. However, the survivors who have been interviewed say they were not having a party.

[STARWISE]

God bless you for your service and protect
you as you help others in need. Stay safe.
Will look forward to your reports, when all
is calmer. The Good Lord is riding with you
on this mission.

[OB1kNOb]

You’re welcome. Help will soon be on the way.

[NautiNurse]

Could be because the largest refinery in the U.S. stands in Ike’s path.

[quack]

I’d say because of shutting down refineries(gas).I wonder how bad the unemployment numbers are going to get after this.

[Natchez Hawk]

Refineries will be closed.

So demand for oil will be lower for a while until they start running again.

[dirtboy]

He doesn’t seem to be analysing today.

There is little analyzing left to do at this point. I was analyzing the risk of Rita hitting where my parents live 48 hours out from potential landfall, where there was still plenty of time to get out. Now we are less than 12-18 hours out. Analysis time is over. Anyone in the shaded section of the flood surge map for Houston should be getting out immedidately, because the size of this storm means conditions will deteroriate well before the max surge hits, making evacuation potentially as dangerous as staying.

This is not rocket science. This is called sound hurricane planning.

[spectre]

Here ya go:

Gulf Coast (Camille) (1969, August 14-22)

"Hurricane Camille hit Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama with 170 mph winds and 200 mph gusts. The storm then moved over the Mid-Atlantic region, releasing 27 inches of rain in one day over Virginia and West Virginia. Losses were recorded at $1.5 billion - a new record. 225 people died, most in the Mississippi Delta, where many ignored the storm warnings. Apparently, few people believed in winds over 200 miles per hour. One Gulf motel even advertised a “hurricane party” for the adventurous who wanted to watch the storm develop. Twenty-foot-high waves destroyed the motel and took a dozen of the partygoers."

sw