Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

I've come up with a great Tshirt for this hurricane:

YIKES

[humblegunner]

Maybe if people hear of Camille, they will evacuate when ordered to do so.

Good luck with that blind acquiescence to authority.

Come order me off my property. I'll buy you a sandwich.

[RikaStrom]

Hey AM,

Yeah, I think they underestimated too. The Galveston mayor is playing CYA.

I just finished laundry and cleaning the kitchen. :-)

I dont think it is going to break right, but lets hope it moves fast and is over quickly. I told my family that it feels like sitting on an ant hill, just waiting for it.

Most of my neighborhood are riding it out, too.

[pax_et_bonum]

Yes, did you guys board up?

(Not you, Allegra! lol!!!)

[Allegra]

I think Nick’s will survive ... it better! No other bar will tolerate us.

Plus, they have the best across-the-street live entertainment.

I'll be home in late November through to about December 17. We'll have to see what's happening in the Food Town parking lot when I'm home.

Y'all be safe. Is west Houston boarding up?

[beckybea]

Latte - French for, you paid too much for this coffee.
Hunkered down here in Conroe waiting for Ike.
God Bless all in the path of Hurricane Ike.

[NautiNurse]

Interesting analogy of the wind speed on that oil platform to high rise buildings in Houston. Thanks.

[PacesPaines]

The Richelieu Apartments were indeed destroyed in Camille and something like 8 of the 23 people who were there died. However, the survivors who have been interviewed say they were not having a party.

Yes, that is also what I have read. Here is what appears to be the real story behind what happened at the Richelieu Apartments during Hurricane Camille.

[TheMom]

Can’t beat a good beat down show for free!

It is cloudy here, sprinkled just a bit ‘bout 30 minutes ago, wind had not yet blown over 10 mph.

I think I may go catch a nap, cause this may be a long night.

[Allegra]

I've come up with a great Tshirt for this hurricane:

YIKES

Simple, straight and to the point. I like it. ;-)

[topher]

Two articles about this from the Houston Chronicle:

As refineries button up, fuel supplies cause concern

Gas stations run short amid rush to fill up

Both are Freerepublic posts with links to the Houston Chronicle.

A quote from one article:

On Thursday, fuel station operators woke up to find the spot price for gasoline had risen nearly $1.50 a gallon overnight.

[NautiNurse]

Very good!

[TheMom]

YIKES

I like it.

[Cheesehead In Dubai]

Please put me on your ping list. I have a house in Galveston and another in The Woodlands (even though I live halfway around the world).

[conservativeinferno]

NOAA is predicting a 20-25 foot surge with waves ON TOP OF THAT of around 20 feet.

[jdub]

boy what a dummy being interviewed in Galveston now on Houston station

was that the blonde woman? I saw her on CNN, and her logic was that she couldnt evacuate because she had animals and kids, and had to protect her house. Right. I feel sorry for the kids. Actually, I don't believe them, I think they just came out to get on tv, and will leave late.

[Deaf Smith]

The Katy Freeway Canal should be flowing pretty good though.

[fatima]

Coast Guard can not get to them.They have to ride out the storm-per KHOU-they just said it.
http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826&live=yes&noad=yes

[Romulus]

Contrary to what you might think, the surge at the top of Galveston Bay will be even higher than the max surge at the coast. So if the surge at the coast is OVER 25 feet, it means it could be well over 30 feet at the top of the bay.

Here's what Dr. Masters has to say:

According to the latest NWS forecast from the Galveston office, we can expect the following storm surges in Texas:

snip

Shoreline of Galveston Bay...15 to 25 feet

NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 27-30 feet on the south and east sides of Houston.

Those are worst-case scenarios, as Dr. Masters points out here:

We've put together today a page of storm surge risks for the Texas coast. These images show the maximum storm tide (storm surge plus an adjustment for hitting at high tide) expected from a mid-strength hurricane of each Saffir-Simpson Category hitting anywhere along the coast of Texas at high tide. These so-called "MOMs" (Maximum Of the Maximum Envelope Of Waters) are computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. A sample image is shown in Figure 1 for a Category 4 hurricane affecting the Galveston area. A storm of this magnitude is expected to bring a maximum 22 foot storm tide (storm surge plus a 2-foot adjustment in case it hits at high tide) to Galveston. A maximum 28-foot storm tide could affect the built-up areas along the east side of Houston. Note that some Category 4 hurricanes making a direct hit on Galveston will bring a significantly lower storm surge than the worst-case 22-foot scenario pictured here.

Your prediction of "well over 30 feet at the top of the bay" is unfounded, hysterical, and irresponsible fear-mongering.

[1066AD]

Camille.