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Hurricane Ike Live Thread III
NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 09/12/2008 5:12:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image Image Loop
Lat/Lon No Lat/Lon Short Long
Visible Visible Visible Visible
Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave
Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None None None None
AVN AVN AVN AVN
Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak
JSL JSL JSL JSL
RGB RGB RGB RGB
Funktop Funktop Funktop Funktop
Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Arkansas; US: Louisiana; US: Oklahoma; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: arkansas; california; crude; desiel; drill; flordia; florida; galveston; gasoline; gulf; hurricane; ike; louisiana; offshore; oil; oklahoma; prices; refineries; rigs; storm; texas; weather
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To: nwctwx

It will be interesting to see. days ago they were giving everyone the impression it would weaken considerably prior to landfall.. then it intensified. Not that it’s a blame game. Is Ike abnormal in that, or is it just his size.


961 posted on 09/12/2008 1:29:44 PM PDT by lainie
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To: SaveTheChief

The numbers are conflicting. I’ve heard that anywhere from 15-50% of residents opted not to leave. I don’t know what the actual percentage is.


962 posted on 09/12/2008 1:30:25 PM PDT by American Quilter (The urge to save humanity is nearly always a cover for the urge to rule. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: NormsRevenge
High Island, Friday morning about 9a.m.

Not exactly an appropriate name.

963 posted on 09/12/2008 1:30:29 PM PDT by SeaHawkFan
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To: Romulus

We are about 3000 feet as the crow flies from beltway 8 in Pasadena. BW8 is the end of evacuation zone 3 for a Cat 5 with 30-35 feet surge. Nice barrier wall except for the underpasses.

Had to turn off the news... it hurts my brain.


964 posted on 09/12/2008 1:30:34 PM PDT by Jaded ("Eloquence is no substitute for experience" -Joe Lieberman)
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To: lainie; y'all

The ‘poop deck’ is the top stern of a ship and has nothing to do with how it sounds in english. (That business was done from the bow, upwind.)


965 posted on 09/12/2008 1:30:42 PM PDT by Enosh (†)
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To: freepertoo
I saw an official on Fox this morning say the vessel is drifting in a southwestern direction. The official was not worried about the crew said they should be able to weather the storm. The biggest danger the vessel could do is crash into a drilling rig but there weren't any in the area of the ship.
966 posted on 09/12/2008 1:30:44 PM PDT by Walmartian (Doesnt sound very Hopenchangey to me.)
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To: jeffers

Thanks for posting that data and the graphics. It makes everything very clear.


967 posted on 09/12/2008 1:31:35 PM PDT by M. Espinola (Freedom is not 'free'.)
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To: Moose4

Wasn’t Massie’s Mill basically wiped out?

My town, Roanoke, had pretty bad flooding.

A year later we were driving home from New Orleans and my dad decided to go through Biloxi. So we saw the empty slabs along the gulf.


968 posted on 09/12/2008 1:31:46 PM PDT by gracesdad
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To: Zechariah_8_13

agree here 100%

I’m glad she’s done for awhile. She sounds like a Sunday School teacher.

I was surprised to hear the tone of “well, tomorrow after the storm is gone in the morning, the city will drain like it always does.. it drains fast.” Yeah.. how many will have homes left, sister?


969 posted on 09/12/2008 1:32:42 PM PDT by lainie
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To: American Quilter
Not that it will do much for Galvaston but, does anyone find it weird that the models are not agreeing?
970 posted on 09/12/2008 1:33:11 PM PDT by wolfcreek (I see miles and miles of Texas....let's keep it that way.)
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To: spectre

This seems like a disaster in another way. I don’t know were the ship is, but if it washed ashore in a populated area, it would make one heck of a battering ram.


971 posted on 09/12/2008 1:33:12 PM PDT by Nachoman (East of Dallas.)
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To: jeffers

ole roscoe was hot on my tail....


972 posted on 09/12/2008 1:33:20 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: spectre

The CNN weatherman just said the surge was 8 feet, so only the waves are going over the top. They need to turn on Fox.


973 posted on 09/12/2008 1:33:43 PM PDT by mathluv (The Barracuda and the Maverick will take on the Messiah and the Mouth)
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To: Allegra

You nailed the guy perfectly. He looked like a snot nosed ivy leaguer type. He couldn’t wait to get his bit done and get out of there. He was wanting to go to the hotel and get some “snoozing done”, his exact words.


974 posted on 09/12/2008 1:33:50 PM PDT by Rebelbase
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To: American Quilter

Ah, now the KHOU news anchors are saying it is indeed 40%. Apparently you can still evacuate in one of the city’s “high-water” vehicles, but the mayor says it’s too dangerous. If you haven’t left by now, you should get inside and stay there. The storm is now 115 miles from Galveston. The eye is projected to hit the east end of the island, and the Bolivar peninsula.


975 posted on 09/12/2008 1:33:58 PM PDT by American Quilter (The urge to save humanity is nearly always a cover for the urge to rule. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: spectre

Yes, may God protect and save the crew on that freighter. They are definitely on my mind. Is the ship without power, that being the main problem, aside from being out in the hurricane?


976 posted on 09/12/2008 1:34:20 PM PDT by Abigail Adams
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To: All

Just heard a quote on FOX that the Mayor “Didn’t want to comment, didn’t want to scare anyone” regarding the Weather Service’s bulletin about those in 1 and 2 story buildings facing “certain death”.

Gee thanks Mayor. God forbid anyone get SCARED!

Dims!

/shaking head


977 posted on 09/12/2008 1:34:50 PM PDT by Zechariah_8_13 ("If we give the bureaucrats our children, we may as well give them everything else." - J. G. Machen)
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To: lainie

I believe the NHC has consistently called for a strengthening or steady state storm as it landfalls. If it had been a cat 4 earlier I think there is a better chance it would have weakened coming in as those intensities are hard to sustain. At this point the size is a big factor.. it’s significantly more difficult to quickly ramp up or down with a large storm. Remember Charley strengthened very quickly but was quite small.


978 posted on 09/12/2008 1:35:25 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: spectre
I heard a communication between a man on board and a rescue worker. Rescue asked the crew member if he could see a helicopter on deck, and he responded with a panicked-shakey-and scared voice saying something like "no, I don't see a helicopter..I don't see a helicopter".

Very sad.

I'm hearing it right now. Poor guy is terrified. May God protect them.

979 posted on 09/12/2008 1:35:44 PM PDT by Allegra (Prayers up for all in Ike's path. Please be safe...my hometown.)
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To: lainie
Ike is very abnormal. Look at it this way - the wind is Cat 1 or Cat 2. The storm surge is Cat 4 to Cat 5 ... or greater.
980 posted on 09/12/2008 1:36:42 PM PDT by Fatuncle (Of course I'm ignorant. I'm here to learn.)
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