Latest: Dick Morris' 2008 Election Map Shows Big Shift for McCain

Newsmax.com ^ | 9/20/08 | Dick Morris

[DogBarkTree]

There was a gigantic turn toward John McCain in the two weeks immediately after the GOP convention. In large part this was due to the Sarah Palin nomination, and the tremendous miscalculation by the Democrats in attacking Palin — particularly on issues important to women, such as her caring for her children. That backfired massively. The anti-Palin attack by the Democrats showed a cultural disconnect with America that is remarkable.

[GeeMoney]

Dick Morris is no profit. All his predictions fail. This map is bad news for McCain. LOL!

Realistically though, much of the map is right. MI, MN, PA, WI all are in play as toss up states.

But there are also some serious flaws.

He’s got CO as “Solid McCain”???? Every single poll has Obama up 2-3 points there. That’s a toss up state.

Same with VA. McCain is up 2-3 points in all the polls there. That’s a toss up.

NH, I haven’t seen one poll where McCain has a lead and hes says it’s leaning his way. NH is close and typically always is close. It’s a classic toss up state.

OR and WA, McCain is in striking distance, but they are leaning Obama.

IA is not leaning McCain. It is leaning Obama. Obama leads by 5 -12% in the polls I’ve seen.

[WillT]

I would be shocked if McCain takes PA or MI. I remember Obama’s comments, but I don’t think McCain is hitting him enough on it.

[curth]

People need to be able to read to understand your message.

[1035rep]

I know that map very well. The good news is, with the welfare reform it’s no longer profitable for the liberals to breed..... AND WE KNOW, not much breeding going on in San Francisco. There’s hope for us yet.

[1035rep]

I don’t think so.

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

I am in the midwest. Believe me. People are not sold on Obama.

[1035rep]

Obama has not been consistently leading in New Mexico. One poll has him up and Rasmussen has McCain +2. You’re correct on Iowa.

[Yaelle]

That is an AMAZING link.

I have such a hard time deciding if the electoral college by state is serving the American people best. I can’t decide because I am so biased: my presidential vote never counts, being Republican in California. That is just so frustrating. Nor do I want mob democracy either. I am trying to imagine a proportional split of delegates per state but I can’t do the math to figure out how to make it the most fair and careful.

[comebacknewt]

Unfortunately, that map is way too optimistic in our favor. Obama has moved back into a slight lead nationally, and with it has almost assuredly recaptured the EC lead as well.

It isn't impossible for us to wind up with a map like that by election day, but we definitely aren't there today.

I'm expecting another razor close election. If we hold Colorado and Nevada, we win. If not, it will be very tough to overcome.

[NYC Republican]

You can always use national polls as a barometer... As the phrase goes, "a rising tide lifts all boats"... Unfortunately, the reverse is also true... Morris is basing his figures off a time when McCain was up about 4 points... Now, with about a 6 point swing (ZeroHussein is up an average of 2-3 points in national polls), the rule of thumb is to take 6 off the spread in each state... Truth is, you can take a little more off on blue states- like 7 or 8, and a little less in Red states, 3 or 4, but 6 is a good, back-of-the-envelope figure...

when you do that, you'll see that states like Ny, MI, OH, etc come into line

Does that help?

[Yaelle]

Or a good Tsunami would do the trick.

We conservatives on the beautiful coast of California will still keep praying for you all in your storms and hurricanes, even though you apparently spend your time wishing us dead.

[1-Eagle]

I only want to see tiny little blue dots just every here and there come Nov! You know more like freckles. :)

Like THIS? <--- 2004 county by county map.

The country is 90% red (although I would prefer we were blue... maybe we can get FOX to at least make that change. Red=communist Blue=true blue American afterall.

[NoGrayZone]

Imagine a Long Island accent mixed with a Bronx one....oy vey, don’t even ask me about that one!!!

[NYC Republican]

Morris doesn't know a damn thing about polling, and all of this information is stale... In other words, USELESS

[1035rep]

Yaelle,

I’m in California. I don’t wish us dead :) I was only referring to the liberals and I only want them relocated.

[Yaelle]

Haven't seen any Obama stickers in the Inland Empire.

Good! They are sprouting like mushrooms here. Though I saw a huge "NOBAMA!" sticker in the great O.C. yesterday.

[NoGrayZone]

Here are mine....

[Yaelle]

I was only referring to the liberals and I only want them relocated.

OK by me, then! :)

[Lady Heron]

Exactly! LOL

[dalebert]

need to take the illegals out of Cali so it will swing to the red.