Poll: Economic Discontent Boosts Barack Obama Over John McCain (Obama 52 , McCain 43)

ABC ^ | Sept. 24, 2008 | GARY LANGER

[tlb]

Democrat Takes 52-43 Lead Among Likely Voters, Erases Republican's Post-Palin Pick Gains

Barack Obama has seized the reins of economic discontent, vaulting over John McCain's convention gains by persuading voters he both better understands their economic troubles and can better address them.

In a head-to-head-match-up he's now supported by 52 percent of likely voters vs. McCain's 43 percent, the first significant advantage for either candidate among likely voters in ABC/Post polls.

Add third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr and it's essentially the same, 51-43 percent.

The contest has shifted from a 49-47 percent McCain-Obama race immediately after the Republican convention.

McCain's bounce -- on individual issues and attributes as well as in overall preference -- is gone.

[goldstategop]

And I should point out McCain already draws 15% of Democrats. I think Kerry got about 89%. Obama is getting at best only 85%.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[kesg]

Maybe someone at ABC is guessing/hoping that liberal Blacks will turn out in MUCH larger numbers to vote than in the past - maybe 20% to 50%??

Maybe (alhtough I doubt it), but where? Chicago? Los Angeles? New York City? Obama is going to win these states anyway.

[beagleone]

OMG and ONOZ is right.

[llandres]

Great video - thanks for that! I’m protestant, but doesn’t matter. This speaks to much greater issues. Yes, this election is SO critical - to both the future of us as people, and also to the future of our wonderful country and all it was founded upon.

[1035rep]

If McCain knew next to nothing about economics it would be more than Hussein knows about anything.
The only people worried about Governor Palin is the liberals, with good reason.

[goldstategop]

Obama could win 95% of the black vote. But as we saw in Florida last week, not all blacks are on board the Obama bandwagon. Some are not just not going to vote for the guy, period!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[kesg]

You know, Kerry’s voters may or may not have been passionate, but they also turned out in huge numbers. 2004 was a huge turnout election and I believe 2008 will be very similar. I believe that Kerry’s vote total in 2004 would have been the highest ever for a Presidential candidate — except for Dubya’s even higher total.

The problem with Obama right now is that everything he does seems to be geared towards firing up his base voters rather than swing voters and undecided voters. McCain picked Palin in part to secure his own GOP base, leaving him free to go agressively after these voters (Of course, Palin aso has great appeal to these voters as well). And he was winning those voters handily until the financial turmoil hit. But this may be nothing more than a temporary speed bump. There is evidence from other contemporaneous polls that the electorate is now swinging back to McCain.

[word_warrior_bob]

Obama needs a minmum of 90% of his base to win and he isn’t going to get anywhere near that. If he gets 85% on election day he’s going down BIG TIME, many dems will stay home, but the ones who vote McCain are a NET TWO votes, a double whammy.

Kerry got 89% and LOST, no way Obama appeals to the base as much as Kerry. McCain has better appeal to independents than Bush did. Obama will NOT get the same percentage of the female vote that Kerry got, you can bank on that. I really see no way Obama can win. Obama put himself in check choosing Biden, McCain played Palin - Check Mate.

[1035rep]

"LOL, every two years......the FR poll trolls emerge to give “advice”"

Honestly, they are swarming the place. Some of them are so bitter about watching Obama go down I just have to laugh.

[vaudine]

where they got them?--probably DC area--WaPo country.

This is strictly for manipulation. Polls can prove anything depending on people polled and questions asked. This is, after all, the WaPo/ABC.

vaudine

[goldstategop]

Obama's problem is he has not nailed down his party's base. If you look at where he's spending time, its too max up the Democratic turnout. With the PUMAs disaffected, he's not able to go after the swing and independent voters. I think his big mistake was not in uniting his party well before the convention and if you have to do that during the general election, you're behind the curve.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[kesg]

And I should point out McCain already draws 15% of Democrats. I think Kerry got about 89%. Obama is getting at best only 85%.

I read somewhere else a few days ago that most of the remaining undecided voters are in voter demographics that are otherwise favoring McCain. If this seems familiar, go back to what happened in 2000. Bush always had a slight lead over Gore all the way to the end, but most of the undecideds where in Gore-friendly demographic groups and in the end they finally broke for Gore.

[kesg]

Obama's problem is he has not nailed down his party's base. If you look at where he's spending time, its too max up the Democratic turnout. With the PUMAs disaffected, he's not able to go after the swing and independent voters. I think his big mistake was not in uniting his party well before the convention and if you have to do that during the general election, you're behind the curve.

This pretty much sums it up for me. I will add that his decision not to accept public financing is also killing Obama right now. He has to keep firing up his base voters in order to continue raising money. But when he does this, he hurts himself with the rest of the electorate, most notably the swing voters and independent voters. And then there was his decision to pick Biden over Hillary, which I predict will come to be seen as his fatal mistake in this election.

[goldstategop]

Agreed. And Obama has done nothing to endear himself to those voters and he still doesn't have almost all his party behind him. I don't see that changing in the month left before the election.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[1035rep]

Rasmussen poll:

Nationally, 63% say that McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama.

Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, 71% say McCain is prepared for the Presidency while just 35% say the same about Obama.

[1035rep]

And Obama has done nothing to endear himself to those voters and he still doesn't have almost all his party behind him.

Exactly!

The latest Oklahoma poll from Rasmussen not only shows McCain with a huge lead (which was expected) but he has 41% of the Democrat vote.

[Azzurri]

All the daily tracking polls (Gallup, Hotline, Rasmussen, Battleground) show a slight move towards McCain in the past 3 days. This poll is a horrible outlier and thus should not be treated seriously at this time. It’ll be interesting to see the daily tracking numbers in the morning.

[Embargo]

“life, faith and family”
Fast forward, please. Inner city families are deteriorating.
Why? Teenage out of wedlock births, high school drop outs, drugs,and criminal mischief. With all due respect to Gov. Palin, the argument some liberals are making is that she certainly does not know how to solve these national pressing problems. What counter argument can be made as to her special value to the ticket? Or to the country?

[1035rep]

The problem is liberalism. There trying to take this country down the sewer. Governor Palin has morals, that’s what the left hates about her. Governor Palin has the highest approval rating of any US Governor. If you don’t know the reasons why you should try and do a little research before you comment. It just makes you look silly.

[eyedigress]

Her special value to the ticket. Your argument mentions babies, drop-outs, drugs and crime. keep going....