Let's not get over dramatic on the media lies.
Posted on 10/14/2008 3:58:57 PM PDT by davek70
NEW YORK (CBS) ― Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is entering the third and final presidential debate Wednesday with a wide lead over Republican rival John McCain nationally, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows.
The Obama-Biden ticket now leads the McCain-Palin ticket 53 percent to 39 percent among likely voters, a 14-point margin. One week ago, prior to the Town Hall debate that uncommitted voters saw as a win for Obama, that margin was just three points.
Among independents who are likely voters - a group that has swung back and forth between McCain and Obama over the course of the campaign - the Democratic ticket now leads by 18 points. McCain led among independents last week.
McCain's campaign strategy may be hurting hurt him: Twenty-one percent of voters say their opinion of the Republican has changed for the worse in the last few weeks. The top two reasons cited for the change of heart are McCain's attacks on Obama and his choice of Sarah Palin as running mate.
Obama is widely seen as running the more positive campaign: Sixty-one percent of those surveyed say McCain is spending more time attacking his opponent than explaining what he would do as president. Just 27 percent say the same of Obama.
McCain's favorable rating has fallen four points from last week, to 36 percent, and is now lower than his 41 percent unfavorable rating. Obama, by contrast, is now viewed favorably by half of registered voters and unfavorably by just 32 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbs3.com ...
Thats a good point...when is the last time a Democrat got >50% in a presidential election, Kennedy?
The average overwight for Dems in the polls is about 15% in this poll I would say it is 20%.
Thank You! ; - )
Where are these polls being conducted? Burger King?
It wasn't 20 points, but 28 points -- from McCain +10 (49-39) to Obama +18 (53-39). Gallup has just reported some movement in Independent support to Obama, but nothing like this.
I'm calling BS on this poll. In previous CBS polls, they used a sample that assumes around 40% Democratic turnout. In this one, however, the Democratic number is only 37.5, but they still grossly undersampled Republicans (29.2) and -- apparently -- moved their oversample of Democrats to Independents (33.4%). It looks to me like someone at CBS took 2.5% of the Democrats and simply lumped them with "Independents" to generate such a huge 28 point shift to Obama.
Or look at it this way. Until this poll, CBS has been assuming that 40% of voters will be Democrats. Has anything happened in the last week to make them think that, now, turnout will be only 37.5% Democrats? Did somemone finally air a Jeremiah Bullfrog ad or something? And if the Democrat suddenly became less popular, wouldn't you expect the Repbulicans to rise above the 29% number? I mean, if the Democrats become less popular, doesn't it follow that their loss would be the GOP's gain? Or is someone merely trying to disguise a 12 point Democratic oversample by moving some of the Democrats to "Independent?"
This is like the 2004 exit polls all over again.
Pretty soon, the polls will be showing an 0bama winning an “Iraq” style election. Remember when Saddam used to get 98.2 percent of the vote every election?
CBS and NY Times Poll? You have got to be kidding me. I would belive Castro, Chavez, and Ahmadinejad before I would believe these people.
But, many of them have to go register to vote and then vote to earn their joints silly.
Here’s the breakdown, from page 20 of the poll.
Total Respondents 1070
Unweighted Percentage Weighted Percentage
Registered Voters 972 100.00% 902 100.00%
Reg. Voters – Democrats 371 38% 338 37%
Reg. Voters – Republicans 295 30% 263 29%
Reg. Voters – Independents 306 31% 301 33%
Does anyone believe that there are more independents than Republicans?
Total horse manure.
Rasmussen reported some polling on Sarah Palin this morning. Keep in mind that he uses a sample that gives Democrats a six point advantage. Nevetheless, he found that Palin has an approval rating of 53%, with 35% viewing her very favorably. Given all the crap that the Obamatons and their adoring media have thrown at her, and the virile hatred that the left has for her, that’s pretty good.
only 14 ? i thought that this week it would be at least 20
Wow, great! We gained 10 points in 12 just hours!
“It wasn’t 20 points, but 28 points — from McCain +10 (49-39) to Obama +18 (53-39)”
A 28% swing in one week? Gallup did show movement to independents but then Gallup had McCain trailing nationally with a 9% IND lead - I mean, please. Meanwhile Ras is as steady as a rock at 5%, Zogby has McCain net +2 for tomorrow.
From Rasmussen, reported yesterday:
“However, Palin still does slightly better than Biden when voters are asked to pick among all four candidates – Obama, McCain, Biden and Palin – for president.” This included a lead of six points among “unaffiliated” voters.
This tells everyone that the campaign strategy has had a real effect. This poll is not even close to any others.
“The D & R weighting looks accurate.”
Think again.
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