Posted on 10/16/2008 9:52:59 AM PDT by jveritas
In order for Obama to win the elections he needs to have at least 40% of the White Vote. During the 2008 democrat primaries he averaged between 34% to 37% of the white vote.
From the 2004 election data 77% of the voters were white and they voted 58% for President Bush and 41% for John Kerry. Blacks made up 11% of the electorate and voted 88% for Kerry and 11% for President Bush. Hispanics made up 8% of the voters and voted 53% for John Kerry and 44% for President Bush. The remaining 4% voted 55% for John Kerry and 45% for President Bush..
In this model let us assume that the Black voters turn out in 2008 increased to 14% of the total votes (a 27% increase over their turnout in 2004), White voters turnout decreased from 77% to 74%, Hispanics and others remain at the same level as in 2004.
Assumption 1:
White vote: Obama 37% (match his highest average in the democrat primaries), McCain 61%
Black vote: Obama 95%, McCain 5%
Hispanics: Obama 65%, McCain 35%
Others: Obama 55%, McCain 45%
McCain total: 50.44%, Obama total: 48.08%
Assumption 2:
White vote: Obama 40% (almost as Kerry got), McCain 59%
Black vote: Obama 95%, McCain 5%
Hispanics: Obama 65%, McCain 35%
Others: Obama 55%, McCain 45%
Obama total: 50.30%, Obama total: 48.96%
By conservative, you mean that you’re actually estimating a better-than-average turnout for the Obamessiah?
Yeah...I’m with you....McCain should get 75 of the Catholics this time....70% of the Jews....ALL of the plumbers....and certainly 70% of the white people...I just can’t see how Obama looks as good as he does in the polls.
If the vote depends on Whites and especially White Women, then McCain and RNC need to be pounding on the fact that Obama’s campaign pays women less than men? And on the sexist attacks vs. Palin.
Unfortunately, minorities are significantly concentrated in the large population centers of the US in states having the highest numbers of electoral votes. While this analysis works in McCain’s favor from a national perspective, it would be interesting to see this same approach applied to some of the battleground states.
Perhaps Ann Coulter was right
Sorry ladies
In 2008 if the black vote is increased to 21% of the total vote in Virginia and the white vote is decreased to 72% of the total vote then Obama needs 36% of the white vote in order to win which 4% more than Kerry got in 2004.
Exactly.
I meant McCain total 48.96% :)
TRUE Americans: 56%
Socialist, liberal, communist, Marxist, Leninism, homosexual slime: 44%
It’s cool to look at these percentages , but in the key states the race vote may make the big difference along with the efforts of ACORN . Rush seems to think that 38% of white men will not vote for a black presidential candidate , not sure where he got that stat .
ACORN has studied the history of election stats in all the swing states and they know how many fraudulent ballots it will take to put 0bama over .
It’s going to be close.
Florida: If Obama gets 40% of the white vote it will be McCain 51.45% vs Obama 48.55%. Obama got only 23% of the white democrat votes in the 2008 primaries in Florida.
Pennsylvania: If Obama gets 40% of the white vote it will Obama 49.51% and McCain 48.9%. Obama only got 35% of the white democrat vote in the 2008 primaries in Pennsylvania.
Correction for Ohio, McCain 51.96% vs Obama 47.04%
Need a doublecheck. That's 104%.
Do you really think McCain will get 70% of the Jewish vote??
It seems to me the dims really have had a lock on this group. I’m not so sure he’ll get that much.
My mistake it was 68% President Bush versus 32% John Kerry.
I’m betting all the people ACORN signed up are white.
I just have a hunch about it.
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