Posted on 10/28/2008 4:31:32 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
Last I looked at places like 538.com and ElectionProjection, they were calling Nevada either "leans McCain" or "tossup". But this story in the Las Vegas Review Journal makes that assumption pretty suspect.
On the first day of early voting, 62 percent of Clark County voters were Democrats, while 23 percent were Republicans and the rest nonpartisans or members of minor parties. Through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans.
Ok, now pay close attention, the early voting gives Democrats a 26 point edge in in votes cast.
Exit polling of early voters conducted by a local political consultant suggests a close presidential contest in the Silver State: Democratic nominee Barack Obama had the votes of 50 percent who had voted, while Republican nominee John McCain had 48 percent of the early vote.
Whoa! That is a heck of a lot of PUMAs. Let's take a look at the actual vote totals:
Through the end of voting Sunday, about 300,000 people had voted early statewide, a turnout of 24.9 percent of the state's 1.2 million active voters.
So if we do a little math, this means 150,000 people have voted Obama, and 148,000 for McCain. But 165,000 of the voters are Democrat, while 87,000 are Republicans. For these results to be valid, at least 13,000 Democrats have to have voted to McCain, and up to 61,000. Assuming that the Independents are splitting 50/50, this gives us about a 37,000 Democrat crossover votes, or 12% of the electorate, assuming 100% support for McCain among Republicans. Put more realistically, the Republicans in Nevada have a 12% advantage in crossover support.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
Nice analysis. Thanks for posting.
[What does $50 buy you at the Chicken ranch?]
Um, a chicken? No money, no honey here in Vegas.
The better news is that Clark County is the liberal half of the state.
Republicans tend to vote early via absentee ballot, in person early voting almost always goes heavy Demicratic (although this is a bigger than normal difference).
So long as they only vote once, it only the final total that counts. Remember Obama has been pushing early voting and has the ground game in place. If we believe the MSM, you’d think no Obama supporter could wait until Nov 4 and they’d all vote, at least once, during the early voting.
haha! touche!
IF, and it’s a big IF, the exit polling is accurate in this Redstate blog, throw in the Bradley effect and McPalin could sail to victory in a number of swing States.
Was the 50-48 Clark County or state wide? This seems to mix state and county data together...
And it's looking good for the GOP almost everywhere else if you adjust poll data for obvious Democrat oversampling bias.
This election isn't in the bag for Barry by a long shot!
I have not received one phone call, one flier, and when I signed up to help again, they never even called back. Meanwhile Bambi has had an office open here for months. Republican's just started two weeks ago.
Elko county is what put us over the finish line. I asked the guy at the office why they were not getting the vote out and he said they thought this area was safe. I hope so, I reminded him we have transients coming in and out of here due to the mines needing help.
I’m not surprised.
There are 2 reliable Democrats in my family, one is a male lifelong union member from Detroit, the other a hardcore female lib from Boston. I love to argue politics with them and have been stymied in my efforts this time.
She thinks Barack screwed Hillary over and won’t vote.
He thinks there will be a race war so is voting McCain.
Strangely enough I didn’t have to prey on their paranoia at all, they came to these conclusions themselves. Sometimes the tinfoilers can be an advantage for us :)
Does anybody have any idea how many actual PUMAS there are?
Golly, I hate early voting. It only enables a dumbed-down electorate. The 0bamaggots knew what they were doing when they went all in on early voting. The way their rotten boat is springing leaks they need to get as many votes locked away as possible before it comes compeletely unglued. If the Times has to give up a video of Obama and Ayers sitting listening to a terrorist talk about killing Jews while they eat their chocolate mousse it may cause discomfort for Democrats who have not yet totally embraced evil.
Do you know anything about Jon Porter and his re-election? A lot of these local candidates can really drive turnout if they have a good operation. Porter is a good conservative that we need in the House and also to run against Harry Reid in 2010.
Nevada was a caucus State for the primary and it was clear that Obama’s thugs steamrolled Hillary and Bill for that matter. A number of the caucus sites were held inside mega casinos under the watchful eyes of union bosses that favored Obama. Ergo, the PUMA count will is very high in Nevada with plenty holding a grudge. Even with the dirty tactics and extortion by the One, the rat caucus’s were split down the middle.
18m voted for Hillary. If McCain gets just 10% or so I think he’s golden.
Ping!
I can say for certain Texas is in the bag for McCain it would be even without the PUMA’S and there are a lot in that state. They first part of the Doc, we will be not be silenced is about Texas voter fraud by the Obama thugs and the Hill supporters are mad and want him to lose.
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