Posted on 10/30/2008 10:08:42 AM PDT by Thane_Banquo
Nicely said. Prayers.
In 2004, FNC final poll had Kerry +2
Bush won by +2
“This is the same poll that had Kerry WINNING by +2 on 10/31/04....”
Difference is, Kerry was +2 with registered voters, but the race was tied with likely voters.
(See: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137191,00.html )
Today is a likely voters poll, where they were more accurate in ‘04. So maybe not quite as good as we’d like though I’m still quite optimistic.
They are misinterpreting this. I'm guessing a huge portion of this is disaffected conservatives. This group is NOT in play for Obama, as if they could be turned between now and the election.
Obama cannot win with 48% or less.
I am hopeful as well and my mind simply cannot grasp the idea that 0 will win. American is just not that out of touch with reality, no matter what the MSM says. Too many of us are marching to a different drummer.
This does not include the people who refuses to be polled usually about 3 to 4%. I think McCain/Palin will win on Nov 4. Absentee voting from Israel are breaking for McCain 3 to 1.
How could this country go so far wrong? That one half of its people will vote for someone who hates America, its Constitution and all this country was founded on?
How have we gone so wrong?
Hmm....47-44 with a split of D41, R39, I16 (46-41 O), 6% still undecided, and a whopping 4% supposedly voting for someone else.
My first reaction is that this poll is oversampling both Democrats (by 2-4 points) AND Republicans (by 2-3) points, while grossly undersampling Independents (by about 10 points). This is a very big deal, because for every point you move from D to I to get the sample right, Obama loses a net .43% of support off his 47 number while McCain picks up a net .36 in his. Plus you add to the poll of undecideds that (for reasons explained below) should break heavily for McCain.
Which leads me straight to my second and much more important point. Obama is STILL pulling under 48 percent in a LV poll that apparently doesn’t include leaners — despite the fact that it is already oversampling Democrats. This is a huge red flag, because we know from past Presidential elections going all the way back to 1976 that while both sides can count on getting at least 48% in competitive elections, from that point on the GOP side has a much easier time getting from 48 to 50%+. By contrast, the last Democrat to hit even 49% was Bill Clinton in 1996.
[Note: you can say the same thing about McCain as well, who is still polling only 44% but that same Presidential election history suggests that he will almost certainly get to 48 from 44 with the remaining undecideds at about the same time that Obama will get from 47 to 48 with this same group. I say this because it has happened in every single Presidential election since 1976 (I’m counting Perot as a GOPer for purposes of this calculation, because, well, he was). From that point on, the remaining undecideds will break more for the GOP candidate (McCain) than the Democratic candidate (Obama). Sometimes they break huge and you get landslides like 1980, 1984, and 1988. In other elections, you don’t get landslides, yet the GOP candidate (by himself or in combination with Ross Perot) still gets 50%+ of the vote. Even when they lose the popular vote, they still come away with at least 48% (e.g. Ford, Bush in 2000).
You can also infer the same thing happening or likely to happen from internals from other polls (e.g. TIPP) showing who most of the remaining undecided voters are — mostly white voters who supported Bush 4 years ago. Yet a third clue is McCain’s 41% among Independents — the same election history shows that he will ultimately get 47-48 of this vote. This is yet another benefit to McCain when you take some of the Dems and move then to Independents to make the sample more representative of the actual electorate.]
Any way you slice it, you could say that McCain has improved in several areas from the previous FOX poll. But not me. It shows merely that what happens in the last week of every Presidential election has started to happen here as as well. It still looks like a 50-48 election to me, with potential for McCain to do even better. 51-48 also looks very doable, especially if turnout turns out to be pretty much like the 55.3% of voting age population that we had in 2004.
I was thinking about a drive to Chicago for an Uno’s pizza on Wednesday. But someone said it might not be safe what with my McCain/Palin sticker on display. Your thoughts?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Schools....took God out...took US pride out.
You’d be safe if you went to Naperville maybe, or somewhere else in DuPage county.
Not to worry. That’s what freeping is for: clarification and support.
Its a higher then that. More importantly, don't forget the folks who outright lie to pollsters and of course, the Bradley-Wilder Factor.
Tied among Catholics is a disgrace if true. McCain is pro-life and Obama not only supports abortion at any time he thinks children can be killed after an accidental delivery.
Can’t get the PDF file to open in my browser, but I think I figured out the discrepancy: I was reading the 10/31/04 poll article at the Fox site, but I needed to be reading the 11/01/04 article for 10/31 poll results — I was able to read that day’s article and they show you’re absolutely right, Kerry was +2 for LV voters on 10/31/04.
Mea culpa! And that’s sure better news so I’m happy to be wrong. :)
I view this election among Catholics as serious as the Battle of Vienna in 1683 AD. If the Pope had not had a defense pact with Poland’s King Jan Sobeiski - Europe would have been lost to Islam.
I think the Church understands how dangerous O is.
The best news about this poll - is Obama is at 47%. Polls are pretty worthless.
Donate, volunteer, vote and GOTV this weekend.
Also buy some ammo before Saturday. We may need it if there are riots. My friend in law enforcement said they are expecting riots in at least 7 major cities.
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