FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics: Zero - 47%, hero - 44%

FoxNews ^ | 10/30/08

[longtermmemmory]

These are not the polls of 1996.
These are crazy polls because of the advent of "Polling of Polls" in order to manipulate the averages.
reference links:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck above link to obama's redistribution by USSC, and constitution needs to go interview

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3IAjphhw6E
Obama and Wright: He Never Complained Once
The new Rev. Wright video from www.GOPtrust.com



VOLUNTEER PEOPLE!!!

TALK THE TALK!

The debate is OVER!
OBAMA IS A MARXIST!
Marxism is ANTI-AMERICAN!


Keep the mantra!
TAXES TAXES TAXES
Joe the Plubmer!

Learn it, Live it, LOVE IT!



WE NEED VOLUNTEERS.

Volunteer Action Center
Want to take action in your neighborhood? Click here to print out fliers for your friends, neighbors and community.

Recruit 10 Friends DO THIS FOR VICTORY	Register to Vote BE SURE TO REGISTER TO VOTE	Make Phone Calls MAKE THE DIFFERENCE	Download Flyers SPREAD THE WORD IN YOUR AREA
Host An Event DO THIS FOR VICTORY: HOST A MCCAIN PARTY	Attend An Event DO THIS FOR VICTORY: ATTENDED AN EVENT	McCain Space DO THIS FOR VICTORY: CREATED YOUR PAGE	Spread the Word TELL OTHERS ABOUT JOHN McCAIN

Downloads

[ExTexasRedhead]

Talk from several Freepers all over the country say McCain when they talk to their friends including RATS. I think the Polls are bogus!

[ConservativeCompendium.net]

FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics: Zero - 47%, hero - 44%

McCain's a hero now? He was the Prince of Darkness around her about 6 months ago. And now he's a hero.

You guys are going to be SORELY disappointed in the McCain administration.

[Maverick68]

Actually, we’ll all be relieved that an EVIL socialist has been vanquished...

[kesg]

“I’d be careful here... There’s only a 2 point gap between Dems and GOP... I think 5 is more realistic.”

Five is too much. There hasn’t been more than a four point gap in any Presidential election since 1980 — not that it did Jimmy Carter any good.

A four point gap is possible in lower turnout elections like 1996 and 2000, but with higher turnout I wouldn’t put it at more than two or three and — but for all the financial turmoil of the last few months — I wouldn’t give the Dems a turnout advantage at all (see 2004 exit polls for details).

The other problem is the size of the Dem share — 41%. Again, Dems haven’t had this high a share of the electorate since 1980. Since then, they have gotten as high as 40% only once: in the 1986 mid-term election. Four years ago, in what was one of the highest turnout elections since 1968, the Dems had only 37% (even with the GOP).

The actual history of the relationship between turnout and party affiliation split shows that — contrary to the conventional wisdom — the better the turnout, the better the GOP does relative to Democrats and Independents. I have two separate charts that I often post here — one that mentions breakdown by party ID in every election since 1972 and one that shows turnout in every federal election since 1960. By comparing and matching up the two, you can see this relationship for yourself.

Here are links to the two charts.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-party-identification.html

[floridagopvoter]

From the poll:

Polling was conducted by telephone October 28-29, 2008, in the evenings. The
total sample is 1100 registered voters (RV) nationwide, with a margin of error
of ±3 percentage points. A sub-sample of 924 has been defined as likely voters
(LV), with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
Democrat LV n=379, ±5; Republican LV n=364, ±5; independent LV n=146, ±8
Obama supporters LV n=439, ±5; McCain supporters LV n=405, ±5

Foxnews changed their party ID from +6% last week to +1.6% this week. That explains the drop. Had they left it at 6% the poll would still be close to last week’s result.

It is anyone’s guess what the eventual party ID is, but I think +1.6% is a little on the low end. I think it is probably closer to +3% ‘rats for this election.

It also seems that Independents were undervalued in this poll. They are giving 40.6% Dems, 39% Republicans, and 16% Independents, when four years ago the party ID breakdown was 38% Dems, 36% Republicans, 26% Independents. 10% less Independents than 4 years ago?

I want this poll to be right, but their sharp drop in party ID weighting makes it an Apple to Oranges comparison. IF the party ID is indeed 1.6% pro Dems, THEN +3% is accurate. IF they were closer last week with their 6% Dems edge, THEN the result would be +8% Obama. IF it is somewhere inbetween their party ID from last week and their party ID from this week, then we are at 5%, which is where most polls seem to be converging at this point.

Turnout is the key. The numbers we are seeing is the pollster’s weighting for party ID. I personally assume that party ID will be 1% higher for the rats this year than it was in 2004 (probably end up at +3%,) primarily based on Bush’s low presidential ratings and the economy being hung around us unjustified. If we can beat that and come in at a number closer (like this 1.6% party ID shown in this Fox poll,) then we have an excellent chance of making up the ground between now and Tuesday.

[Thane_Banquo]

Anyone who went through what he did for his country is a hero in my book. I was not one of those who thought he was the “Prince of Darkness.”

[TribalPrincess2U]

Hero squashes the Zero. Love it!

We'll show Zero's " foreign fave friends" how it's done here in America.

Land of The Free! Home of The Brave!

Obama calls America selfish, and thinks "charity" is government taking your money to "be our brother's keeper." Zeto has a brother subsisting in a hut, and your beloved aunt living in a Boston slum! He needs OUR money to help them (and all his other relatives and donors).

God Bless America!

The one country that lets scum like Bill Ayers blow up places, and Jeremy Wright the right to say, "G** D*** A****** and get away with it.

P.S And Obamao credit card donors and ACORN a free ride on fraud.

[fortunate sun]

What is this O 53- M 42 number for people who have already voted in the crawl on the bottom of Fox?

[tj21807]

One final push!

The challenge:

Between NOW and election day, convince at least two Obama/Undecided voters to vote for McCain. Further, convince these two people (or two others) to take up the same challenge. (Like a chain letter)

So you have converted people in the past? Good, but we need more!

Many Obama supporters are mindlessly supporting him, with no real reason, this is VERY easy to get them to switch over. Even if you fail other Obama/undecideds may be in hearing distance and hear valid arguments.

Do your part! Start the conversion process!

[Toespi]

Just talked to a long time friend, who has already voted for McCain. Her husband, who has never taken an interest in voting, voted for the first time this year, McCain.

[Sun]

WITHIN the MARGIN of ERROR!

[Kevmo]

bmflr

[Teacher317]

Yahoo's main page has been showing Obama with 355 projected EVs, and McCain with 156... Obama with 50.3% of the vote, and McCain withe 43.1...

Oddly enough, it's changed since yesterday... Obama now at 49.7 (with a red down-arrow, and 0.2 next to it), and only 344 EVs... McCain up to 43.8%, green up-arrow next to 0.1%.

[Doofer]

Just discovered that. In my euphoria, I saw Thursday and overlooked the date. My apologies to all.

It's OK, some the the DUmmies trolling this thread probable had panic attacks over it.

[Grampa Dave]

For President Barack Obama and his world wide Obamacon cult, the Upcoming Election is "Just a Mere Formality!".

The polls show that Lord Obama has won.

So just stop this stupid nonsense and outdated technicality of an Election. Osama/bama is now our FUERHER UBER BAMA, er president of America and the entire world.