GWU/Battleground Poll O49-M45

GWU/Battleground ^ | 10-31-08 | GWU/Battleground

[icwhatudo]

National GWU/Battleground Obama 49, McCain 45 Obama +4

[icwhatudo]

Link still showing yesterdays numbers.

[No Dems 2004]

Statistically unchanged. Let’s pray this weekend really turns things around for Mac!

[newfreep]

what is party weighting for the BG polls?

[Grampa Dave]

For President Barack 0bama and his world wide 0bamacon cult, the Upcoming Election is "Just a Mere Formality!".

The polls show that Lord 0bama has won.

So just stop this stupid and outdated technicality of an Election. 0sama/bama is now our FUERHER UBER BAMA, er president of America and the entire world.

[bahblahbah]

McCain lost a point...

[davek70]

-1 for Mac since yesterday... But at least O is still <50%. I think this # is most important.

[zaker99]

Battleground doesn’t poll on Fridays or Saturdays. Yesterday’s poll still included interviews from last Thursday, October 23. That day just fell off. It may have been a good day for McCain. That’s the one thing I don’t like about Battleground. The fact that sometimes their earliest data in their poll is very old.

[Tarpon]

We’ll know Wednesday. Are you rounding up any votes ... So far I have four additional confirmed ‘formerly undecided’ Mac votes, seven total. I’m multiplying — ^_^

[GoCards]

Keep hearing if Bama is not ahead by at least 8 or 10 he will not win. Thoughts?

[CaraM]

Confessions of an Obama Blogger:
Or:
Why you should NOT believe the Polls:
Found on:
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/
Posted 30 October 2008.

(This is Lengthy but PLEASE read it.
It will show how people have been manipulated.)

sarah p Says:
October 27, 2008 at 5:04 am
Ok, I want to clear my conscious a little. Hopefully you could make a blog post to help some fellow clinton supporters out.
I work for a campaign and can’t wait for this week to be over.

I was doing it for a job. I was not a fan of any candidate but over time grew to love HRC. (Hillary Rodham Clinton)
The internal campaign idea is to twist, distort, humiliate and finally dispirit you.

We pay people and organize people to go to all the online sites and “play the part of a clinton or mccain supporter who just switched our support for obama”

We do this to stifle your motivation and to destroy your confidence.

We did this the whole primary and it worked.
Sprinkle in mass vote confusion and it becomes bewildering. Most people lose patience and just give up on their support of a candidate and decide to just block out tv, news, websites, etc.

This surprisingly has had a huge suppressing movement and vote turnout issues.

Next, we infiltrate all the blogs and all the youtube videos and overwhelm the voting, the comments, etc. All to continue this appearance of overwhelming world support.
People makes posts to the effect that the world has “gone mad”

Thats the intention. To make you feel stressed and crazy and feel like the world is ending.

We have also had quite a hand in skewing many many polls, some we couldn’t control as much as we would have liked. But many we have spoiled over. Just enough to make real clear politics look scarey to a mccain supporter. Its worked, alough the goal was to appear 13-15 points ahead.
see, the results have been working. People tend to support a winner, go with the flow, become “sheeple”.

The polls are roughly 3-5 points in favor of Barack. Thats due to our inflation of the polls and pulling in the sheeple.

Our donors, are the same people who finance the MSM. Their interests are tied, Barack then tends to come across as teflon. Nothing sticks. And trust, there were meetings with Fox news. The goal was to blunt them as much as possible. Watch Bill Oreilly he has become much more diplomatic and “fair and balanced” and soft. Its because he wants to retain the #1 spot on cable news and to do that he has to have access to the Obama campaign and we worked hard at stringing him a long and keeping him soft for an interview swap. It worked and now he is anticipating more access. So he is playing it still soft.

This is why nothing sticks.
The operation is massive, the goal is to paint a picture that is that of a winner, regardless of the results.
There is no true inauguration draft or true grant park construction going on. There will be a party, but we are boasting beyond the truth to make it seem like the election is wrapped up.

Our goal is to continue to make you lose your moral. We worked hard at persuasion and paying off and timing and playing the right political numbers to get key republican endorsements to make it seem even more like it was over and the world was coming to an end for you all.

There is a huge staff of people working around the clock, watching every site, blogs, etc. We flood these sites. We have had a goal to overwhelm.

The truth is here. I could go on and on, but you get the picture.

I am saying this because I know HRC was better for the country, and now realize this. I was too late by the time I connected to her. To me Barack was just a cool young dude that seemed like a star. I didn’t know him or his policies, but now I understand more than I care to and I realize his interests are more for him, and the DNC and all working like puppets with dean. I always thought a president wanted the better good for the country. The end result I see is everyone dependent on the government, this means more and more people voting for the DNC. This means the future is forever altered. I don’t see this as america, so I am now supporting John Mccain.

Sarah Palin is a huge threat, and our campaign has feared her like you can’t imagine. If it seems unfair how she has been treated, well its because she has had a team working round the clock to make her look like a fool.

this is a big conspiracy and I am so shocked that its not realized.

We released a little blurb the other day that the Obama campaign was already working on reelection and now putting our efforts towards 2012. This was to make it seem like it was above us to continue caring about 2008. Trust me, its a lie. David is very smart, but its a sticky ugly not very truthful kind of intelligence.

Its not over yet, but I think the machine is working. And its a hill to climb.

I will be quitting my post on nov 5th and my vote will be for John Mccain. Fortunately, my position has been a marketing position and I don’t feel I had any part of anything I would feel guilty for. But I look forward to getting out of this as the negativity and environment upsets me.

I wish you all well, and goodluck.
PS my name is not really sarah. but I am a female and I understand your plight.

[TMA62]

Perhaps this is his bump for his TV “show”

He CAN’T close the deal!!

[Galtoid]

Yesterday my phone rang around 2:00 p.m. and the caller ID said Yarmuth for Congress (D). They asked for my husband, and I yelled, “He’s not here; he’s at work like every other Republican.” She was stunned into silence. I then hung up. It felt soooo good!

[careyb]

What’s the D/R/I breakdown for Battleground?

[Hones]

Dims + 5.

[CaptainMorgantown]

Day to day variations in the tracking polls don't necessarily indicate a trend. I think the major tracking polls are likely to show Obama going into Election Day with a 3-5 point lead. The real question is how well those polls reflect what the actual vote will be on Tuesday:

• All of the major polls are using weighting that give a substantial edge (6-9%) in party affiliation to democrats. If that party affiliation estimate is off and the actual number is more like 3%, then the polls are off by significant amounts.
• Given the huge advantage that Obama has had in expenditures and media coverage, voters have already been exposed to everything that could convince them to vote for Obama. There is good reason to believe that undecided voters will break heavily for McCain at this stage.
• Given the overwhelming pressure to vote for Obama, there may be substantial numbers of independents and moderate democrats who are hedging their answers to pollsters, which may result in Obama performing worse than he does in the polls. This occured repeatedly in the late democratic primaries.

Part of the reason that pollsters are weighting the democratic vote very heavily was because of the record setting (~36 million) number of votes cast in the democratic primaries this year. However, several million of those votes were case by independents/republicans that were motivated either by Rush Limbaugh or simply because there was a more interesting race on the democratic side. Only ~18 million of those primary voters cast ballots for Obama. While these are huge numbers for a primary season, we really haven't had a primary that has gone into May for several decades. It will take well over 60 million votes to win a general election. That is a much bigger target than the primary elections. And remember, Obama didn't really even triumph in the democratic primary elections; his margin of victory was provided by caucuses, where he could prevail by organizing a very small number of very committed activist.

I don't know what the outcome is going to be, but it's going to be close, and I think our side has a much better chance than the 3-5 point deficit in the polls indicates. The best thing to do is vote and make sure your friends and relatives vote.

[scooby321]

0 is behind.

[tatown]

Bummer, I was hoping that this one would shink to +2 or better today.

[ncalburt]

This tracking poll was hijacked by Obama in early Oct.
Rush was talking about OBama camp went around persuading Pollsters to intentionally CHANGE there poll formulas to persuade the masses that Obama way ahead.

If this poll had not been radically changed .The poll would be tied right now .
Read how they changed it below in early Oct because the lefty pollster thought the youth vote was cooing to be huge.
We know that is BS but they kept the same phony formula change !

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/battleground_drops_party_weigh.php

[LS]

Seems to break kesg’s “48%” theory.

[tatown]

It has had Obama at 49% for almost every day the last couple weeks. It had McCain at 46% pretty much that entire time as well... I was hoping that McCain would break a bit closer going into the final stretch.

It is noteworthy that Battleground does not poll on the weekends thus we’ll not see another poll from them until Monday.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_103108_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf