Posted on 11/03/2008 10:18:29 PM PST by 1972BornFree
He hasn't updated the text yet, just the graph.
Obama 52.1 McCain 42.7
Clinton was quite popular among Democrats in 1996, and Republicans had not the fear of Clinton that currently grips them with the prospect of Obama.
Consign Zogby's 10 point poll to the flames. Obama may be ahead tonight, but it probably closer to even than it is to 10 points.
| Nominee | Bill Clinton | Bob Dole | |
| Party | Democratic | Republican | |
| Home state | Arkansas | Kansas | |
| Running mate | Al Gore | Jack Kemp | |
| Electoral vote | 379 | 159 | |
| States carried | 31+DC | 19 | |
| Popular vote | 47,402,357 | 39,198,755 | |
| Percentage | 49.24% | 40.71% | |
Funnily enough, there is another thread floating around discussing zogby’s final EC count in 04 and I think he called 311 of them for Kerry.
The pollsters have made their choice. Either we’re all going to be astonished tonight that America actually went through with it by such a big margin or these guys will be totally demolished.
I’ll eat crow if Obama wins by 11 points.
Well the pollsters have an out you know, they just say, “oh we were polling right but there was that Bradly Effect!” and we all know they are full of BS but they keep their jobs anyway.
This defies logic.
My husband saw him this week in person and all he wanted to do was sell his book. When anyone disagreed with him or challenged some of his prophecy, he just yelled his talking point louder. Typical liberal—and don’t forget that he’s in the tank for Obama because of the Arab/Palestinian connection. That alone should disqualify anything the man says.
You’re a Troll, and apparently an inept psychic.
It appears that I’ve struck a nerve. I’m sure your Kool Aid will calm the nerves. Drink deeply.
If they’re completely bogus, for some reason we’ll still be looking at these threads 4 years from now. Why, I’m not quite sure, but we all do.
...and if they’re right, FR might be banned 4 years from now.
Stay the course and vote.
If his internals are anything like Gallup’s, he’s an idiot.
Oh wait, he’s an idiot regardless.
FOLKS!
We all know the polls are weighted wrong. Do NOT pay attention to this or the exit polls!
And if you need a boost, read this:
By “final” does this mean he’s going out of business after McCain wins?
A most astute observation, sir.
While Gallup is allowing bad assumptions to drive itself over the cliff (we hope), I am of the opinion that Zogby is pulling numbers out of thin air. There’s virtually no mathematical way his tracking poll could be jumping back and forth like this otherwise.
The problem is not how the polls are weighted, as that remains for the most part static within a given poll. The problem is the MOVEMENT within that weighting. It is movement away from McCain, which suggests that undecideds are breaking differently than many here may have thought.
Of course, this is just one poll, but the movements in the other polls are similar. In a little over an hour IBD/TIPP will release their final poll, and perhaps that one will have it back down to a race within the margin (under 2%.) Let’s hope.
Actually weighting is an issue. They are assigning a higher +D based on assumptions.
I’m no pro but I love reading the variety of breakdowns from folks who know how to do such a thing.
After reweighting back to closer to historic norms, the numbers run a lot tighter.
If Obama is elected, FR and other sites like it will disappear loooooooooooong before 4 years pass! :*(
What does this moron take us for?
What is really funny is how McCain has closed the gap in the Rassmussen battleground state polls, while Gallup, Zogby, etc. go flying over the left field wall.
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