Posted on 11/03/2008 11:53:58 PM PST by gandalftb
Click on the link for internals and results.
(Excerpt) Read more at muhlenberg.edu ...
Now they are releasing their daily tracking trend going back to 9/26.
By graphing the trend lines I project a raw 51% Obama, 47% McCain. The last seven days, Obama has not picked up any undecideds, so giving the last 1% to McCain is justified to give a final polling breakdown of 51% Obama vs. 48% McCain.
Those polled don't often tell the truth, especially in the case of Democrat, women, Hillary voters. Several polls show 25%+ breaking for McCain. If even 10% do so, that's a 1% Democrat crossover vote for McCain, making the result 50% Obama, 49% McCain.
The poll also shows Obama getting 16% of the Republican vote, not likely.
Look at Question #12:
"Do you know anyone who does not support Obama because he is black?"
YES.....14%
That percentage only favors McCain. With a 50% turnout and PA is 91% White, that's a "Bradley Effect" of 6%. If we consider only half that crossover, we get a 52% McCain, 47% Obama.
A solid win for McCain.
Dems have a 10 point turnout advantage in this poll and Obama is up only six points? If this is right, he has a problem.
The Republican number is real. The Rinos in the philly suburbs got whaled on by the market.
My hope is in the selection problems in the polling. The party ID is 51/41/6 D/R/I, a +10 spread. I do not believe the spread will be that great and we are simply having oversampling of Dems.
It will be close though. Does anyone have party ID info from ‘04 and ‘06?
All P.U.M.A website has told their people to tell pollsters they were voting for OBAMA!
It would be pretty sorry if 16% of Republicans threw this to Obama, an absolute disgrace.
“All P.U.M.A website has told their people to tell pollsters they were voting for OBAMA”!
...are you serious?
What kind of jackass responds to a falling economy by voting for a Marxist?
2004 was D +2 in PA, and 2006 was D +5, however in 2006 there was a lower overall turnout than in 2004. About 5.75 million voted in PA in 2004; about 4 million in 2006.
BTW, I took a quick look at the VA polls and they are better for McCain by a couple of points, he should win there too.
I did the math. If Mac takes PA, OH, NC, FL, MO and NV but loses VA, CO, NM and NH... He wins 273-265. I am confident that he will take NC, FL, OH MO and NV. I even think he will take VA. But not real sure. Anyway if he gets PA its over for Bambi. Come on PENN. You can do it!!! Put down your guns and bibles and get out and vote!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Witness how little time Obama has been in PA, they think they have it in the bag.
McCain's been camped out there for good reason.
I tracked 4 other PA polls with similar projections.
I know that they have said they are doing that. What would be their reason? Did they say? Seems it would work to depress the Pub vote and defeat their purpose.
The kind of drive-by voter that gets their information from CNN and drinks chai lattes with an extra shot at Starbucks.
i.e. Suburban voters.
Obama drama manana.
"Come on PENN. You can do it!!! Put down your guns and bibles and get out and vote!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
They don't know whether the call is coming from the union and many aren't going to want to vote for Obama's "carding" act.
My Grandmother and Grandfather were in unions in the textile industry back in the 30’s. They use to tell all the grandkids about how the union bosses would always come around and tell them how they had to vote. They did as they were told because they needed their jobs.
They'll say one thing on the phone with Mama-for-Obama sitting next to them. But I don't know a one of those die-hard Demos that would really vote for Obama.
People need to read this:
http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2008/11/03/toast/
and then concentrate on GOTV.
If we do, Wednesday will be a great morning.
Obama is toast...and this is the first time I have said that.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.