Posted on 05/28/2009 10:16:43 AM PDT by Tolik
Why would the Iranian government spend billions of dollars trying to develop a few first-generation nuclear bombs (as nearly everyone believes is the case) when the country is so poor that it has to ration gasoline?
A lot of reasons have been offered by various experts.
Upon developing a nuclear weapon, states win instant prestige and attention beyond what they otherwise might have earned. Take away its bomb and North Korea would be in the news about as much as Chad.
Nuclear weapons also can change the nature of conventional warfare.
Israel’s Arab neighbors have not waged a full-scale traditional war against Israel since 1973 — in part because there is no longer a nuclear patron, in the form of the Soviet Union, to threaten the use of nukes should Israel strike back too strongly against its aggressors.
But give Iran a bomb or two and it will be able to guarantee Hezbollah and Hamas — or a coalition of Muslim states — a secure fallback position if they attack Israel and lose.
Then there is inter-Islamic rivalry. If Iran gets a bomb, it will send a message that the Persian Shiites, not the Sunni Arabs, are the true effective defenders of the faith against the Zionist entity.
Tehran will also remind these monarchies and dictatorships that Iran is an ascending revolutionary power that appeals to the Muslim masses across geographical boundaries.
Some even insist that Iran is apocalyptic — and that it seeks the bomb largely to stage a glorious mass suicide, in a nuclear exchange with Israel, in which millions go to their deaths, convinced they have at least earned a place in paradise by killing half the world’s Jews for Islam.
All these are the conventional explanations of why an energy-rich Iran is operating thousands of centrifuges.
The real reason may be something else.
More likely, Iran wishes to break Israel’s will — not necessarily by a nuclear strike. Instead, periodic threats from a nuclear theocracy, Iran may recognize, would do well enough.
Once armed with the bomb, Iran will likely increase the frequency of its now-familiar denial of the Holocaust. In between such well-publicized lunacy, some Iranians, such as Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, will periodically threaten to wipe Israel off the map — or promise Armageddon if Israel retaliates against Hamas or Hezbollah.
The net effect would be for half the world’s Jews to hear constantly two messages — there was no Holocaust, but there might well be one soon. It would be analogous to the American public reliving the threats of the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 — every day.
A recent poll revealed that a quarter of Israel’s population quite understandably might emigrate if Iran gets the bomb. And it seems likely that within a decade or two, a nuclear Iran could so demoralize the Israelis by such psychological intimidation that it could unravel Israel demographically without dropping a bomb.
Countries around the world would continue to sit idly by as they profit from lucrative trade with oil-rich Iran — now and then warning the Israelis not to be the preemptive aggressor and “start” a war.
Already, the Obama administration — through pro-Palestinian Mideast-affairs nominations such as those of Charles Freeman and Samantha Power, along with its pledge to help rebuild Gaza, its outreach to Syria and Iran, and its irritation with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu — seems to be telling Israel that it is increasingly on its own.
Given demographic realities in the Middle East, if a large minority of Israelis emigrates, then the end of the Jewish state becomes possible without Iran ever dropping the bomb that it now so eagerly wishes to acquire
Let me know if you want in or out.
Links: FR Index of his articles: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=victordavishanson
His website: http://victorhanson.com/
NRO archive: http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson-archive.asp
Pajamasmedia: http://victordavishanson.pajamasmedia.com/
Israel will never allow itself to placed into a missile crisis like the Cuban Missile crisis.
Israel knows that they can’t depend on the new Amerika under 0b0z0.
When their intel tells them, it is time to preempt. Israel will take out the nuclear capability of Iran and maybe its Jihadist Thugs.
Don’ worry, Doc. Mr. Obama will charm them out of having such weapons.
And very soon now, I will be flying to Europe...by flapping my arms.
Spot on...VDH’s piece is 100% correct, which is why the Israelis will take pre-emptive action..
Religious Zionists are less likely than others to emigrate out of fear of a bomb. If his scenario plays out, Israel will become more and more hawkish, and more likely to strike first. Not only that, I’d guess that the ones remaining would be the ones with higher birth rates (due to religious reasons, etc), the “demographic crisis” in Israel would likely resolve itself more quickly.
ping me please
Very good points made here. We shall see. Isreal needs Hashem’s intervention
0bama is basically throwing Israel to the wolves and Bush was doing the same. Islam is taking over Europe and a Kenyan has taken over the United States. What will be left for white Christians and Jews? I note here 0bama is a pagan who worships himself. Has he been to church yet?
The Mossad has a full file case on 0B0Z0 and his anti Israeli white thugs and black thugs.
They know the grim reality of 0B0Z0 and how he and his closest and closet advisors will do nothing to protect Israel. They want to see Israel disappear like they want us to disappear.
Israel's Arab neighbors have not waged a full-scale traditional war against Israel since 1973 -- in part because there is no longer a nuclear patron, in the form of the Soviet Union, to threaten the use of nukes should Israel strike back too strongly against its aggressors. But give Iran a bomb or two and it will be able to guarantee Hezbollah and Hamas -- or a coalition of Muslim states -- a secure fallback position if they attack Israel and lose. Then there is inter-Islamic rivalry. If Iran gets a bomb, it will send a message that the Persian Shiites, not the Sunni Arabs, are the true effective defenders of the faith against the Zionist entity. Tehran will also remind these monarchies and dictatorships that Iran is an ascending revolutionary power that appeals to the Muslim masses across geographical boundaries. Some even insist that Iran is apocalyptic... The real reason may be something else. More likely, Iran wishes to break Israel's will -- not necessarily by a nuclear strike. Instead, periodic threats from a nuclear theocracy, Iran may recognize, would do well enough. Once armed with the bomb, Iran will likely increase the frequency of its now-familiar denial of the Holocaust. In between such well-publicized lunacy, some Iranians, such as Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, will periodically threaten to wipe Israel off the map -- or promise Armageddon if Israel retaliates against Hamas or Hezbollah.
Added to VDH ping list
Iran will produce 25-50 nuclear weapons and put them in ballistic missiles, to give itself a retaliation capability sufficient to deter Israel. Then it will give 3-5 nukes to its terrorist proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas. The terrorist proxies will then nuke Israel.
Quite straightforward, really. Iran calculates that Israel will not risk 50 more nuclear attacks just to get revenge on a distant sponsor. They might be wrong or they might be right, but that is their calculation. Considering how spineless every western government is these days, and half of the Israeli populace, it is probably a fair guess.
This is so obvious the only wonder is why men everywhere continue to pretend otherwise, and invent scores of new competing excuses for Iranian tyrants. The Iranian tyrants themselves have been entirely straightforward about it throughout. It is plain as a pikestaff. But men will invent anything rather than face the simple fact.
Putting a nuclear weapon in a missile and then getting it to work is another kettle of fish beyond anything they have attempted yet. Putting one in a truck might be doable but the missile thing isn’t going down any time soon unless somebody shows them how.
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