Posted on 01/08/2010 1:32:11 AM PST by militanttoby
I find this truly remarkable: in a National Journal survey of 109 Republican "party leaders, political professionals and pundits", not a single one deemed Sarah Palin to be the most likely Republican nominee.
I've written extensive commentary about how I think Palin's chances are in fact pretty decent. I'd probably call her the "favorite", although "favorite" in this context might mean having a 25-30 percent chance of winning. From my list of ten bullet points, this one stands out as the most important:
8. Attempts by the Republican Establishment to neuter her may backfire. This is a corollary of #6 ["She's tough to campaign against"] above. If the Establishment, owing to electability concerns or whatever else, tries to put hurdles in her way by re-structuring the primary or delegate allocation process, it may only play into the victimization complex of Palin and her supporters. 2010/12 is shaping up to be an anti-Establishment cycle. The Republican Establishment is not popular, to a large extent even within their own party, and certainly not among "conservatives" more broadly, only 55 percent of whom have a favorable image of the G.O.P.
Palin has some obvious flaws as a candidate. But she's the best equipped to bridge the divide between the Tea Party and the Republican Party. In some ways, indeed, the "message" that she unveiled in 2008: a mish-mash of populism, everywomanism, and paranoia -- coupled with a light touch on policy specifics -- has proven to be highly prescient in terms of everything that has come thereafter. And most of the other candidates have flaws that are at least as significant: Romney has his Mormonism, his flip-flops, and his MassCare; Huckabee has Maurice Clemmons and is despised by the establishment every bit as much as Palin, and Tim Pawlenty has become the dweeb trying to keep up with the Cool Kids -- we live in a branded world, and in a branded world, the inability to differentiate oneself is death. John Thune comes out looking pretty good, I guess, but he's also the least exposed so that could change.
But back to the point I made in November -- there's going to come a time, probably in July 2011 or so, where the knives are really drawn on Palin and Republican pundits, strategists and candidates start saying in public some of the things they've been thinking in private. And that in all likelihood will play very well for her. Although the Establishment's concerns about Palin's viability as a general election candidate are well grounded, mostly they're just terrified of her because she doesn't need them.
Notice the common theme :”We should rally around Palin because all the bad guys will attack her”. I hear this on talk radio regularly.
I think she is happy with the rock star book signing life, no responsibilities, doesn't have to get voters mad at her by making unpopular decisions. Being in office is NOTHING like that!
If she put a D before her name the RATS would run her in a minute. Politics, if a candidate can get the votes it doesn’t matter if she’s qualified or not.
I’d think the Republicans would be smart to offer Palin Steele’s job (at least on a temporary basis until after the 2010 elections) if she would consider it.
Well she was in office and was hugely popular.
Book signing has finished.
“Notice the common theme :”We should rally around Palin because all the bad guys will attack her”. I hear this on talk radio regularly.”
If you hear it and read it in both conservative and liberal media, maybe you should believe it.
As long as Palin gets tough on Illegal Aliens and Border Security....and stops giving money to Lindsey Graham....she would get my support.
Mitt is the New McCain.
Sarah Palin knows what its to be in office. Not like president Zippy. That sutipd pr!ck doesn’t even know whats its like to be in the bathroom.
“As long as Palin gets tough on Illegal Aliens and Border Security....”
She has made several very clear and tough statements on this. Quit hitting the snooze button.
“....and stops giving money to Lindsey Graham....”
Got any proof of that? As a SarahPAC monthly contributor, I have only heard of one candidate she has given money to. That was Hoffman in the NY 23rd.
Actually, if you read closely, Nate seems to be another of the "Republicans must court moderates if they want to win" spouter. No. What Republicans need to do is court independent and Democrat conservatives.
That seems pretty much the greatest need. Fiscal responsibility will play very well with independents against the backdrop of this profligate administration/congress.
I know it's hard to believe for those of you who live where there still IS a Republican Party, and where people actually self-identify as such, but the GOP organizational leadership is hated by the people in most of the country MORE THAN THEY HATE THE DEMOCRATS - and they hate the Democrats enough to throw them out of office.
This creates a complex position on the chessboard. Power is, or will be soon, lying on the ground. It's RIGHT THERE, ready to be picked up.
Sarah can do it, but not as a restorationist. Any HINT that those who were (deservedly) thrown out in 2006 and 2008 are hiding under her skirts, and she's done for.
I've thought for a long time that this required a new second party - but if she can lead an insurgency within the GOP (which she's done before), that may do the trick.
I'm worried about Congress, though. We really can't allow the RATs back in the House. If a GOP civil war is raging, the chances of a large pickup are reduced.
But I am absolutely, positively certain that the old order GOP is finished in the hearts and minds of the people, ad that it must be reformed or replaced for the conservative majority to prevail.
And time's a wastin'.
Although it looks bleak with these full blown socialists in power. I’ve said and many others have said, “It’s better to be thrown into hot water and know your getting burned then to be slow boiled by an ever increasing Rino majority.”
Throw all the bums & bumettes out.
Now THAT is an interesting idea! I never read or heard that one before but I like it.
Steele really got in at the best time for himself (rock bottom). He can claimed he turned everything around himself when really it was democrats winning everything that did that.
Yeah, I just heard on the radio this morning Steele is telling the leadership of the Republican party to fire him or shut the hell up! The guy is losing it, and he is just devisive and ineffective.
Sarah needs to divorce herself from the Republican whimp party to a new “Conservative Party”. I think she has a tough road ahead either way, but I’m still voting for her unless someone better comes along in the next 3 years.
I think a Palin-Pawlenty or Pawlenty-Palin ticket could have strong possibilities.
Part of me agrees with you. The other part is scared to death that all a 3rd party will do is wind up giving us 4 more years of Zero, which this country can't survive.
I saw him say : 1) he doesnt think the R party will take over congress in 2010, but he cant predict it now, and 2) the R party is NOT ready to lead.
In isolation I agree with both those points. But I dont know what his vision is. He was our Lt Governor in Maryland a liberal state.
No, he will stay in office and look a hero in November 2010. And if R party doesnt win too big in 2010, then it will win again in 2012 and he will look the hero again.
At this stage in history he is not hurting anything, it is not his fault the R party is so screwed up. In 1993 the R party did a RINO purge. Bush was a way bigger problem than Steele (being president) and look how many rallied behind him evem in 2008.
Good idea!
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