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Counting the Heads of House Democrats (very detailed analysis)
Real Clear Politics - HorseRaceBlog ^ | 03-05-2010 | Jay Cost

Posted on 03/05/2010 11:26:14 PM PST by Ken H

Counting the Heads of House Democrats

Updated 3-6

Update, 12 AM Saturday: Adding Dina Titus (D-NV) to the list of Democrats who voted yea in November, but who are now reconsidering.

Update, 4 PM Friday: Eric Massa's planned resignation takes him off the list. There are now 37 Democrats who voted nay in November who will be Democrats when (if?) the next vote occurs. With the House vacancies being what they are now, Speaker Pelosi will need 216 votes to pass the bill. ***

There has been a lot of talk about the 38 House Democrats who voted against health care reform in November. There have been suggestions that some are about to flip, fueled in no small part by this piece from the AP:

"In interviews with the AP, at least nine of the 39 Democrats -- or their spokesmen -- either declined to state their positions or said they were undecided about the revised legislation, making them likely targets for intense wooing by Pelosi and Obama."

I agree with Jane Hamsher: this is a non-story.

-snip-

Bottom line: Democratic leaders have a tough road ahead.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 111th; healthcare; obamacare; pelosi
I am not familiar with the author, but his analysis seems reasonable and well thought out.
1 posted on 03/05/2010 11:26:14 PM PST by Ken H
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To: Ken H
Just in...

Update, 2:30 AM Saturday:

I am adding Baron Hill (IN-9) and Marion Berry (AR-1) to the list of Democrats who voted yea in November, but who are now reconsidering. Berry appears to be a Stupak Democrat. (Thanks to readers Darrin and Robert for sending in the links!) Also, I am moving Mike Ross (AR-4) from "Hard to Persuade" to "Very Hard To Persuade."

2 posted on 03/06/2010 12:10:16 AM PST by Ken H
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To: Ken H

Articles like this are why I bought Barone’s book this year. It’s been so helpful.

I wish that Geraghty from NR’s campaign spot not only did the d-wherever but listed the district like this guy does


3 posted on 03/06/2010 12:14:22 AM PST by downwdims (It does not take a majority to prevail... but rather an irate, tireless minority)
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To: Ken H
"Update, 4 PM Friday: Eric Massa's planned resignation takes him off the list."

I posted this last night. I think that it sounds so strange that I should repost it here:

Friday, March 05, 2010 8:29:18 PM · 86 of 100 matthew fuller to Former Military Chick I caught this on the Bret Bair show. Massa knows something that the public doesn't, and he has warned us. From the Fox news website: Massa said he is resigning with a "profound sense of failure and a deep apology to all those whom, for the past year, I tried to represent as our nation struggles with problems far greater than anyone can possibly imagine."

Does anyone have a clue as to what this guy is trying to clue us in to?

4 posted on 03/06/2010 12:28:01 AM PST by matthew fuller (1962- Last year of intelligence- First year of television.)
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To: matthew fuller; Ken H; Former Military Chick
Massa said he is resigning with a "profound sense of failure and a deep apology to all those whom, for the past year, I tried to represent as our nation struggles with problems far greater than anyone can possibly imagine."

By "anyone" does he mean: his constituents, the public at large (dulled on bread and circuses), or even the people who strive to be well-informed (those who lurk/post here and in similar venues)?

Off the top of my head, I'd say he's seen something terrible that most of the rest of us haven't, and I can't imagine what it is, short of slavery and/or war.

5 posted on 03/06/2010 12:36:34 AM PST by thecodont
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To: matthew fuller

...I tried to represent as our nation struggles with problems far greater than anyone can possibly imagine.”


I think he’s just stating that we’re in a hell of a mess.


6 posted on 03/06/2010 12:46:45 AM PST by unkus
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To: thecodont
My guess is that he is being a drama queen. I would be more inclined to believe there is a secret about him waiting to come out, rather some terrible secret just ahead of us.
7 posted on 03/06/2010 12:47:37 AM PST by Ken H
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To: thecodont; unkus

When the Bret Bair show stated this, they put the text on the screen. I backed it up and read it again, and it really got my attention. Seems like he’s really trying to tell us something, and I don’t at all get why he feels like he has to retire- HE’s a DIM, they don’t have to quit because of sex things...something is coming down, I think, and he knows what it is.


8 posted on 03/06/2010 1:02:39 AM PST by matthew fuller (1962- Last year of intelligence- First year of television.)
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To: Ken H

Thses so-called “fence sitters” for this go ‘round are only hedging because of the Cornhusder Kickback, Louisiana Purchase, etc that was granted in the Senate bill. These DIMocrats are all holding out for what they can get Pelousy to “give” them now that they know their votes can be bought. Hopefully, each one has a different price and at some time will balk at the “offer they can’t refuse”.


9 posted on 03/06/2010 1:06:02 AM PST by TexasRedeye (Eschew obfuscation)
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To: Ken H

Baron Hill is the overinflated egotist who told his constituents: “This is my town hall meeting. I set the rules.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtmgQ2W3lhM

I guess he thinks his first name is his title. I wouldn’t trust him to vote against the bill.


10 posted on 03/06/2010 1:21:27 AM PST by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners)
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To: Ken H

Off the top of my head I would guess Massa is referring to people being “Outed”. He was probably a no vote. Perhaps it’s a warning to nay voters that you better look under your bed, because someone else sure is.


11 posted on 03/06/2010 1:46:23 AM PST by pnut22
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To: matthew fuller

“Does anyone have a clue as to what this guy is trying to clue us in to?”

There aren’t enough fascist SS to protect the seditionist pig from a treason trial. If they want to save their skin they need to make their own arrangements to get out of Dodge and find a rock to crawl under.


12 posted on 03/06/2010 5:24:33 AM PST by sergeantdave
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To: Ken H

It ain’t dead until congress is recessed and we flip at least 1 in Nov, or we will be fighting this battle for 3 more years!

OBAMANOMICS—TRICKLE DOWN DESTRUCTION of the economy
Bambi doesn’t keep his promises...so buyer beware!

SET THEIR LOCAL AND DC LINES ON FIRE!

PLEASE ASK THEM TO REPEAL THE BIG NEW FEES in TRICARE for Life, the retired Military over 65 secondary health ins. which they passed in a DOD bill. They promised our Military these benefits, and our Military have earned them.

Sen Scott Brown’s number is 202-224-4543
Capitol Hill switchboard is 202-224-3121

Lots of local demwit phone numbers on this thread
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2408217/posts

Rename, repackage, rewrite it a tad smaller, and sell another pig in a poke. NO COLAs for granny, retired Military or retired fed employees. BIG NEW fees for Tricare for Life retired over 65 Military’s secondary health ins. (DOD bill already passed, delayed but goes into effect 2011 NEEDS TO BE REPEALED!

OBAMA’s WAR ON SENIORS http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2433867/posts/

New Dem mantra: Woof, woof eat dog food granny....ala let them eat cake.

Obama says slight fix will extend Social Security, http://townhall.com/news/us/2010/02/19/obama_says_slight_fix_will_extend_social_security

Health Care Rationing for Seniors Another Problem in New Obama Plan http://www.lifenews.com/bio3058.html

Medicare tax may apply to investment income (ObamaCare tax hike)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2460988/posts

Obama: No reduced Medicare benefits in health care reform
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/07/28/obama.health.care/index.html

Will healthcare reform mean cuts in Medicare for seniors?
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2009/1017/will-healthcare-reform-mean-cuts-in-medicare-for-seniors

Health Reform’s Hidden Victims Young people and seniors would pay a high price for ObamaCare.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203517304574306303720472842.html

SOCIALIZED MED THREAD http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2464538/posts

MILITARY & Retired MILITARY
Veterans’ G.I. Bill benefits MIA
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2464680/posts
TRI CARE FOR LIFE This from a google search:

http://economicspolitics.blogspot.com/2009/05/tricare-for-life-is-obama-trying-to.html

This option would help reduce the costs of TFL, as well as costs for Medicare, by introducing minimum out-of pocket requirements for beneficiaries. Under this option, TFL would not cover any of the first $525 of an enrollee’s cost-sharing liabilities for calendar year 2011 and would limit coverage to 50 percent of the next $4,725 in Medicare cost sharing that the beneficiary incurred. (Because all further cost sharing would be covered by TFL, enrollees could not pay more than $2,888 in cost sharing in that year.) http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9925/12-18-HealthOptions.pdf

Bill Would Restrict Veterans’ Health Care Options 11/06/09
Buyer and McKeon Offer Amendments to Protect Veterans and TRICARE Beneficiaries

Congress plans to block Tricare fee increases
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2009/10/military_tricarefees_blocked_100709w
http://www.navytimes.com/news/2009/10/military_tricarefees_blocked_100709w/

By Rick Maze - Staff writer, Oct 7, 2009

Tricare fee increases imposed last week by the Defense Department will be repealed by a provision of the compromise 2010 defense authorization bill unveiled Wednesday by House and Senate negotiators.

The fee increases were announced on Sept. 30 and took effect on Oct. 1, but the defense bill, HR 2647, includes a provision barring any fee increases until the start of fiscal 2011.

Retired Army Maj. Gen. Bill Matz, president of the National Association for Uniformed Services, said the announcement of fee increases was shocking considering that the Obama administration promised earlier this year to hold off on any new fee Tricare fee increases until fiscal 2011.

“President Obama and DoD assured NAUS and the entire military family earlier this year that there would rightly be no increases in any Tricare fees” in fiscal 2010, Matz said. “We took them at their word, and I can’t believe that a co-pay increase like this was allowed to go forward,” he added.
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#
Health Reform 3.0 - Lipstick On A Pig
Friday, March 05, 2010 3:05:55 PM · 5 of 5
GailA to raptor22

OBAMANOMICS—TRICKLE DOWN DESTRUCTION of the economy
Bambi doesn’t keep his promises...so buyer beware!

SET THEIR LOCAL AND DC LINES ON FIRE!

PLEASE ASK THEM TO REPEAL THE BIG NEW FEES in TRICARE for Life, the retired Military over 65 secondary health ins. which they passed in a DOD bill. They promised our Military these benefits, and our Military have earned them.

Sen Scott Brown’s number is 202-224-4543
Capitol Hill switchboard is 202-224-3121

Lots of local demwit phone numbers on this thread
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2408217/posts

Rename, repackage, rewrite it a tad smaller, and sell another pig in a poke. NO COLAs for granny, retired Military or retired fed employees. BIG NEW fees for Tricare for Life retired over 65 Military’s secondary health ins. (DOD bill already passed, delayed but goes into effect 2011 NEEDS TO BE REPEALED!

OBAMA’s WAR ON SENIORS http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2433867/posts/

New Dem mantra: Woof, woof eat dog food granny....ala let them eat cake.

Obama says slight fix will extend Social Security, http://townhall.com/news/us/2010/02/19/obama_says_slight_fix_will_extend_social_security

Health Care Rationing for Seniors Another Problem in New Obama Plan http://www.lifenews.com/bio3058.html

Medicare tax may apply to investment income (ObamaCare tax hike)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2460988/posts

Obama: No reduced Medicare benefits in health care reform
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/07/28/obama.health.care/index.html

Will healthcare reform mean cuts in Medicare for seniors?
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2009/1017/will-healthcare-reform-mean-cuts-in-medicare-for-seniors

Health Reform’s Hidden Victims Young people and seniors would pay a high price for ObamaCare.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203517304574306303720472842.html

SOCIALIZED MED THREAD http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2464538/posts

MILITARY & Retired MILITARY
Veterans’ G.I. Bill benefits MIA
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2464680/posts
TRI CARE FOR LIFE This from a google search:

http://economicspolitics.blogspot.com/2009/05/tricare-for-life-is-obama-trying-to.html

This option would help reduce the costs of TFL, as well as costs for Medicare, by introducing minimum out-of pocket requirements for beneficiaries. Under this option, TFL would not cover any of the first $525 of an enrollee’s cost-sharing liabilities for calendar year 2011 and would limit coverage to 50 percent of the next $4,725 in Medicare cost sharing that the beneficiary incurred. (Because all further cost sharing would be covered by TFL, enrollees could not pay more than $2,888 in cost sharing in that year.) http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9925/12-18-HealthOptions.pdf

Bill Would Restrict Veterans’ Health Care Options 11/06/09
Buyer and McKeon Offer Amendments to Protect Veterans and TRICARE Beneficiaries

Congress plans to block Tricare fee increases
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2009/10/military_tricarefees_blocked_100709w
http://www.navytimes.com/news/2009/10/military_tricarefees_blocked_100709w/

By Rick Maze - Staff writer, Oct 7, 2009

Tricare fee increases imposed last week by the Defense Department will be repealed by a provision of the compromise 2010 defense authorization bill unveiled Wednesday by House and Senate negotiators.

The fee increases were announced on Sept. 30 and took effect on Oct. 1, but the defense bill, HR 2647, includes a provision barring any fee increases until the start of fiscal 2011.

Retired Army Maj. Gen. Bill Matz, president of the National Association for Uniformed Services, said the announcement of fee increases was shocking considering that the Obama administration promised earlier this year to hold off on any new fee Tricare fee increases until fiscal 2011.

“President Obama and DoD assured NAUS and the entire military family earlier this year that there would rightly be no increases in any Tricare fees” in fiscal 2010, Matz said. “We took them at their word, and I can’t believe that a co-pay increase like this was allowed to go forward,” he added.


13 posted on 03/06/2010 7:17:33 AM PST by GailA (obamacare paid for by cuts & taxes on most vulnerable Veterans, disabled,seniors & retired Military)
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To: Ken H

Obamacare call list: Courtsey of TN Eagle Forum:

PLEASE CALL! DC OFFICE LOCAL OFFICE State District
Harry Mitchell (202) 225-2190 (480) 946-2411 AZ 5th District
Gabrielle Giffords (202) 225-2542 (520) 881-3588 AZ 8th District
Ann Kirkpatrick (202) 225-2315 (928) 226-6914 AZ 1st District
Jerry McNerney (202) 225-1947 925-833-0643 CA 11th District
John Salazar 202-225-4761 970-245-7107 CO 3rd District
Jim Himes (202) 225-5541 (866) 453-0028 CT 4th District
Alan Grayson (202) 225-2176 (407) 841-1757 FL 8th District
Bill Foster (202) 225-2976 630-406-1114 IL 14th District
Baron Hill 202 225 5315 812 288 3999 IN 9th District
Mark Schauer (202) 225-6276 (517) 780-9075 MI 7th District
Gary Peters (202) 225-5802 (248) 273-4227 MI 9th District
Dina Titus (202) 225-3252 702-256-DINA (3462) NV 3rd District
Carol Shea-Porter (202) 225-5456 (603) 743-4813 NH 1st District
Tim Bishop (202) 225-3826 (631) 696-6500 NY 1st District
John Hall (202) 225-5441 (845) 225-3641 x49371 NY 19th District
Bill Owens (202) 225-4611 (315) 782-3150 NY 23rd District
Mike Arcuri (202)225-3665 (315)793-8146 NY 24th District
Dan Maffei (202) 225-3701 (315) 423-5657 NY 25th District
Earl Pomeroy (202) 225-2611 (701) 224-0355 ND At-Large District
Steven Driehaus (202) 225-2216 (513) 684-2723 OH 1st District
Mary Jo Kilroy (202) 225-2015 (614) 294-2196 OH 15th District
Zach Space (202) 225-6265 (330) 364-4300 OH 18th District
Kathy Dahlkemper (202) 225-5406 (814) 456-2038 PA 3rd District
Patrick Murphy (202) 225-4276 (215) 826-1963 PA 8th District
Christopher Carney (202) 225-3731 (570) 585-9988 PA 10th District
Paul Kanjorski (202) 225-6511 (570) 825-2200 PA 11th District
John Spratt (202) 225-5501 (803)327-1114 SC 5th District
Tom Perriello (202) 225-4711 (276) 656-2291 VA 5th District
Alan Mollohan (202) 225-4172 (304) 623-4422 WVA 1st District
Nick Rahall (202) 225-3452 (304) 252-5000 WVA 3rd District
Steve Kagen (202) 225-5665 (920) 437-1954 WI 8th District
Bart Gordon (202) 225-4231 TN
Bart Stupak (202) 225 4735 MI


14 posted on 03/06/2010 7:18:17 AM PST by GailA (obamacare paid for by cuts & taxes on most vulnerable Veterans, disabled,seniors & retired Military)
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