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The Health Care Bill's Prospects
The American Thinker ^ | March 06, 2010 | Richard Baehr

Posted on 03/06/2010 3:32:07 AM PST by Scanian

Will the health care reform bill pass? Nate Silver, the expert number-cruncher at fivethirtyeight.com, thinks it is a 50-50 proposition. The real test will be in the House, and not the Senate, where 51 votes are likely there for a reconciliation package (though so far, only 47 Senators have committed to supporting it).

The House passed its version of health care reform by 220-215 in late 2009. Since that date, Congressman John Murtha has died, and two other Democrats -- Neil Abercrombie and Robert Wexler -- have resigned. All three voted for the bill. Democratic Congressman Bart Stupak says he will shift his vote from yes to no due to the looser abortion language in the Senate version of the bill as compared to the more restrictive House language. That is also the case with Joseph Cao, the one Republican who backed the bill its first time through.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: democrats; obamacare; resignations; stupak

1 posted on 03/06/2010 3:32:08 AM PST by Scanian
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To: Scanian

The last line of this article says it all, “the public be damned.” We are no democracy to be running around willy nilly trying to make laws ourselves, but, our representatives (and senators now too since they merely want to be super-representatives) had better get ready to get taken to the woodshed if Pelosi finds the votes to ram this through.

The only thing is this, if she can and does, we have health care and Barry can sign it; as is - no reconciliation, and since this would already have happened if she had the votes, she DOES NOT have the votes.

If we let up for one second now, we’re cooked. We can still keep this thing from going through.


2 posted on 03/06/2010 3:48:48 AM PST by LurkLongley (Ad Majoram Dei Gloriam-For the Greater Glory of God)
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To: Scanian

Show every Congressman and Senator the rope, and point at the branch.

/Texan


3 posted on 03/06/2010 3:51:10 AM PST by EternalVigilance (They're too busy grabbing power outside their jurisdiction to do their actual job within it.)
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To: Scanian

Hey, Guys.

If it passes the House, and since it’s passed the Senate, what’s to keep it from landing on Obama’s desk for signing into law as is?


4 posted on 03/06/2010 4:12:51 AM PST by plangent
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To: Scanian

The content of any federal version of health care is irrelevant! Article 1 Section 8 of the Constitution does not specifically list health care as a power to regulate! The people are not bound to comply with any unconstitutional act of Congress! This is the point people need to impress on their politicians!


5 posted on 03/06/2010 4:16:51 AM PST by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it! www.FairTaxNation.com)
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To: plangent

Nothing.


6 posted on 03/06/2010 4:16:53 AM PST by Tom_Busch (The big media IS the enemy)
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To: Scanian

Call me slow on the uptake or ill-informed but I admit I am not an expert on parliamentary procedure and the passage of Obamacare than many of you at FR are, so here is my question: I read somewhere that John Boehner said that if the House of Representatives took up the Senate version of Obamacare with the intention of passing it with a majority vote and sending it directly to Obama for his signature, the House would be voting on the Senate bill, exactly as it was constructed in the Senate, without even a comma omitted or a word left out and having said that how can Speaker Pelosi bargain with Bart Stupak over the abortion language in the Senate bill if she apparently has no power or authority to change it, without sending it back to the Senate where it would have to take another vote for eventual passage?


7 posted on 03/06/2010 4:35:59 AM PST by techno
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To: plangent

You’re spot on with your comment. If the House passes the Senate bill—you have the same bill passed in both houses. The Pres could sign that and be done with it. Reconciliation is a ruse—there’d be nothing to reconcile. I firmly believe that Dems would throw each other under the bus, just to get this done.


8 posted on 03/06/2010 4:37:22 AM PST by Lou L
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To: techno

The Stupak crowd would have to be convinced by Pelosi that “side car” “fix” bills would go to the Senate and attached to the bill through reconciliation and one would be to strike federal abortion funding.

If Stupak & Co. buy into that, they run the risk of being snookered - since both the House and Senate will have passed the Senate’s bill, Pelosi and Reid could send it immediately to Obama for signature regardless of any promises of a “fix” made to the “moderates.” The question becomes, then, do “moderate” Democrats trust their leadership enough to buy into the promised “fix?”

We are talking about ‘Rats, so how much real trust could actually exist among them? And does the Stupak crows really care that much about abortion or are they merely looking for cover?

The Byzantines would have been proud.


9 posted on 03/06/2010 4:54:19 AM PST by Scanian
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To: LurkLongley

At a time when everyone is stressed about the economy, Obama and the crooks in his party, are causing us to stress out again and again about this Healthcare bill. We are in debt too deeply now, to continue to dig another big debt hole for future generations. Many of us are sick of these people who love to create more and more stress and more and more debt.


10 posted on 03/06/2010 5:34:42 AM PST by FreedBird (D)
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To: plangent
If it passes the House, and since it’s passed the Senate, what’s to keep it from landing on Obama’s desk for signing into law as is?

Not a single thing, in fact, I believe that is the demonRAT plan.

Pass it in the house, send it back to the senate for modification, and when they can't get enough votes to "reconcile" it, send the current senate bill to osamaobama.

11 posted on 03/06/2010 6:06:28 AM PST by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages - In Honor of Standing Wolf)
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To: Scanian

Since Murtha croaked and a couple others have left, is the magic number still 218 or now less?


12 posted on 03/06/2010 6:21:58 AM PST by The Good Doctor (Democracy is the only system where you can vote for a tax that you can avoid the obligation to pay.)
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To: The Good Doctor

I believe she needs 216 now and she has them if the so-called pro-lifers vote “yes” on the Senate bill.

They may be pro-life but they are ‘Rats so I’m not optimistic about them acting with integrity.


13 posted on 03/06/2010 6:34:56 AM PST by Scanian
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To: LurkLongley

obamacare needs to be killed NOW, at least 1 house flipped in Nov, or we will be fighting this battle for 3 more years!

OBAMANOMICS—TRICKLE DOWN DESTRUCTION of the economy
Bambi doesn’t keep his promises...so buyer beware!

SET THEIR LOCAL AND DC LINES ON FIRE!

PLEASE ASK THEM TO REPEAL THE BIG NEW FEES in TRICARE for Life, the retired Military over 65 secondary health ins. which they passed in a DOD bill. They promised our Military these benefits, and our Military have earned them.

Sen Scott Brown’s number is 202-224-4543
Capitol Hill switchboard is 202-224-3121

Lots of local demwit phone numbers on this thread
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2408217/posts

Rename, repackage, rewrite it a tad smaller, and sell another pig in a poke. NO COLAs for granny, retired Military or retired fed employees. BIG NEW fees for Tricare for Life retired over 65 Military’s secondary health ins. (DOD bill already passed, delayed but goes into effect 2011 NEEDS TO BE REPEALED!

OBAMA’s WAR ON SENIORS http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2433867/posts/

New Dem mantra: Woof, woof eat dog food granny....ala let them eat cake.

Obama says slight fix will extend Social Security, http://townhall.com/news/us/2010/02/19/obama_says_slight_fix_will_extend_social_security

Health Care Rationing for Seniors Another Problem in New Obama Plan http://www.lifenews.com/bio3058.html

Medicare tax may apply to investment income (ObamaCare tax hike)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2460988/posts

Obama: No reduced Medicare benefits in health care reform
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/07/28/obama.health.care/index.html

Will healthcare reform mean cuts in Medicare for seniors?
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2009/1017/will-healthcare-reform-mean-cuts-in-medicare-for-seniors

Health Reform’s Hidden Victims Young people and seniors would pay a high price for ObamaCare.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203517304574306303720472842.html

SOCIALIZED MED THREAD http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2464538/posts

MILITARY & Retired MILITARY
Veterans’ G.I. Bill benefits MIA
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2464680/posts
TRI CARE FOR LIFE This from a google search:

http://economicspolitics.blogspot.com/2009/05/tricare-for-life-is-obama-trying-to.html

This option would help reduce the costs of TFL, as well as costs for Medicare, by introducing minimum out-of pocket requirements for beneficiaries. Under this option, TFL would not cover any of the first $525 of an enrollee’s cost-sharing liabilities for calendar year 2011 and would limit coverage to 50 percent of the next $4,725 in Medicare cost sharing that the beneficiary incurred. (Because all further cost sharing would be covered by TFL, enrollees could not pay more than $2,888 in cost sharing in that year.) http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9925/12-18-HealthOptions.pdf

Bill Would Restrict Veterans’ Health Care Options 11/06/09
Buyer and McKeon Offer Amendments to Protect Veterans and TRICARE Beneficiaries

Congress plans to block Tricare fee increases
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2009/10/military_tricarefees_blocked_100709w
http://www.navytimes.com/news/2009/10/military_tricarefees_blocked_100709w/

By Rick Maze - Staff writer, Oct 7, 2009

Tricare fee increases imposed last week by the Defense Department will be repealed by a provision of the compromise 2010 defense authorization bill unveiled Wednesday by House and Senate negotiators.

The fee increases were announced on Sept. 30 and took effect on Oct. 1, but the defense bill, HR 2647, includes a provision barring any fee increases until the start of fiscal 2011.

Retired Army Maj. Gen. Bill Matz, president of the National Association for Uniformed Services, said the announcement of fee increases was shocking considering that the Obama administration promised earlier this year to hold off on any new fee Tricare fee increases until fiscal 2011.

“President Obama and DoD assured NAUS and the entire military family earlier this year that there would rightly be no increases in any Tricare fees” in fiscal 2010, Matz said. “We took them at their word, and I can’t believe that a co-pay increase like this was allowed to go forward,” he added.
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#
Health Reform 3.0 - Lipstick On A Pig
Friday, March 05, 2010 3:05:55 PM · 5 of 5
GailA to raptor22

OBAMANOMICS—TRICKLE DOWN DESTRUCTION of the economy
Bambi doesn’t keep his promises...so buyer beware!

SET THEIR LOCAL AND DC LINES ON FIRE!

PLEASE ASK THEM TO REPEAL THE BIG NEW FEES in TRICARE for Life, the retired Military over 65 secondary health ins. which they passed in a DOD bill. They promised our Military these benefits, and our Military have earned them.

Sen Scott Brown’s number is 202-224-4543
Capitol Hill switchboard is 202-224-3121

Lots of local demwit phone numbers on this thread
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2408217/posts

Rename, repackage, rewrite it a tad smaller, and sell another pig in a poke. NO COLAs for granny, retired Military or retired fed employees. BIG NEW fees for Tricare for Life retired over 65 Military’s secondary health ins. (DOD bill already passed, delayed but goes into effect 2011 NEEDS TO BE REPEALED!

OBAMA’s WAR ON SENIORS http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2433867/posts/

New Dem mantra: Woof, woof eat dog food granny....ala let them eat cake.

Obama says slight fix will extend Social Security, http://townhall.com/news/us/2010/02/19/obama_says_slight_fix_will_extend_social_security

Health Care Rationing for Seniors Another Problem in New Obama Plan http://www.lifenews.com/bio3058.html

Medicare tax may apply to investment income (ObamaCare tax hike)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2460988/posts

Obama: No reduced Medicare benefits in health care reform
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/07/28/obama.health.care/index.html

Will healthcare reform mean cuts in Medicare for seniors?
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2009/1017/will-healthcare-reform-mean-cuts-in-medicare-for-seniors

Health Reform’s Hidden Victims Young people and seniors would pay a high price for ObamaCare.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203517304574306303720472842.html

SOCIALIZED MED THREAD http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2464538/posts

MILITARY & Retired MILITARY
Veterans’ G.I. Bill benefits MIA
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2464680/posts
TRI CARE FOR LIFE This from a google search:

http://economicspolitics.blogspot.com/2009/05/tricare-for-life-is-obama-trying-to.html

This option would help reduce the costs of TFL, as well as costs for Medicare, by introducing minimum out-of pocket requirements for beneficiaries. Under this option, TFL would not cover any of the first $525 of an enrollee’s cost-sharing liabilities for calendar year 2011 and would limit coverage to 50 percent of the next $4,725 in Medicare cost sharing that the beneficiary incurred. (Because all further cost sharing would be covered by TFL, enrollees could not pay more than $2,888 in cost sharing in that year.) http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9925/12-18-HealthOptions.pdf

Bill Would Restrict Veterans’ Health Care Options 11/06/09
Buyer and McKeon Offer Amendments to Protect Veterans and TRICARE Beneficiaries

Congress plans to block Tricare fee increases
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2009/10/military_tricarefees_blocked_100709w
http://www.navytimes.com/news/2009/10/military_tricarefees_blocked_100709w/

By Rick Maze - Staff writer, Oct 7, 2009

Tricare fee increases imposed last week by the Defense Department will be repealed by a provision of the compromise 2010 defense authorization bill unveiled Wednesday by House and Senate negotiators.

The fee increases were announced on Sept. 30 and took effect on Oct. 1, but the defense bill, HR 2647, includes a provision barring any fee increases until the start of fiscal 2011.

Retired Army Maj. Gen. Bill Matz, president of the National Association for Uniformed Services, said the announcement of fee increases was shocking considering that the Obama administration promised earlier this year to hold off on any new fee Tricare fee increases until fiscal 2011.

“President Obama and DoD assured NAUS and the entire military family earlier this year that there would rightly be no increases in any Tricare fees” in fiscal 2010, Matz said. “We took them at their word, and I can’t believe that a co-pay increase like this was allowed to go forward,” he added.


14 posted on 03/06/2010 7:03:47 AM PST by GailA (obamacare paid for by cuts & taxes on most vulnerable Veterans, disabled,seniors & retired Military)
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To: LurkLongley

Obamacare call list: Courtsey of TN Eagle Forum:

PLEASE CALL! DC OFFICE LOCAL OFFICE State District
Harry Mitchell (202) 225-2190 (480) 946-2411 AZ 5th District
Gabrielle Giffords (202) 225-2542 (520) 881-3588 AZ 8th District
Ann Kirkpatrick (202) 225-2315 (928) 226-6914 AZ 1st District
Jerry McNerney (202) 225-1947 925-833-0643 CA 11th District
John Salazar 202-225-4761 970-245-7107 CO 3rd District
Jim Himes (202) 225-5541 (866) 453-0028 CT 4th District
Alan Grayson (202) 225-2176 (407) 841-1757 FL 8th District
Bill Foster (202) 225-2976 630-406-1114 IL 14th District
Baron Hill 202 225 5315 812 288 3999 IN 9th District
Mark Schauer (202) 225-6276 (517) 780-9075 MI 7th District
Gary Peters (202) 225-5802 (248) 273-4227 MI 9th District
Dina Titus (202) 225-3252 702-256-DINA (3462) NV 3rd District
Carol Shea-Porter (202) 225-5456 (603) 743-4813 NH 1st District
Tim Bishop (202) 225-3826 (631) 696-6500 NY 1st District
John Hall (202) 225-5441 (845) 225-3641 x49371 NY 19th District
Bill Owens (202) 225-4611 (315) 782-3150 NY 23rd District
Mike Arcuri (202)225-3665 (315)793-8146 NY 24th District
Dan Maffei (202) 225-3701 (315) 423-5657 NY 25th District
Earl Pomeroy (202) 225-2611 (701) 224-0355 ND At-Large District
Steven Driehaus (202) 225-2216 (513) 684-2723 OH 1st District
Mary Jo Kilroy (202) 225-2015 (614) 294-2196 OH 15th District
Zach Space (202) 225-6265 (330) 364-4300 OH 18th District
Kathy Dahlkemper (202) 225-5406 (814) 456-2038 PA 3rd District
Patrick Murphy (202) 225-4276 (215) 826-1963 PA 8th District
Christopher Carney (202) 225-3731 (570) 585-9988 PA 10th District
Paul Kanjorski (202) 225-6511 (570) 825-2200 PA 11th District
John Spratt (202) 225-5501 (803)327-1114 SC 5th District
Tom Perriello (202) 225-4711 (276) 656-2291 VA 5th District
Alan Mollohan (202) 225-4172 (304) 623-4422 WVA 1st District
Nick Rahall (202) 225-3452 (304) 252-5000 WVA 3rd District
Steve Kagen (202) 225-5665 (920) 437-1954 WI 8th District
Bart Gordon (202) 225-4231 TN
Bart Stupak (202) 225 4735 MI


15 posted on 03/06/2010 7:04:31 AM PST by GailA (obamacare paid for by cuts & taxes on most vulnerable Veterans, disabled,seniors & retired Military)
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