Posted on 03/11/2010 10:56:13 AM PST by tcrlaf
CBO has just released an estimate of the budgetary effects of the health bill, H.R. 3590, that passed the Senate on December 24.
Today’s estimate differs from the estimate for a slightly earlier version of the legislation that we released on December 19 in that it encompasses all of the amendments that were adopted by the Senate, reflects a revised assumption about its enactment date, and incorporates some technical revisions.
Like the December 19 estimate, this estimate is based on CBO’s baseline projections from March 2009. We and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) prepared this updated estimate in preparation for further consideration of health care legislation. However, the changes we have made do not result in an estimate that differs substantially from the earlier one.
CBO and JCT now estimate that, on balance, the direct (mandatory) spending and revenue effects of enacting H.R. 3590 as passed by the Senate would yield a net reduction in federal deficits of $118 billion over the 2010–2019 period.(Direct spending—as distinguished from discretionary spending—is spending that stems from legislation other than appropriation acts.)
In our earlier estimate, the budgetary impact was a net reduction in deficits of $132 billion.
The gross cost of the proposed expansions in insurance coverage over those 10 years is now projected to be $875 billion, reflecting subsidies provided through insurance exchanges, increased net outlays for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and tax credits for small employers.
Those costs are partly offset by revenues from an excise tax on high-premium insurance plans and net savings from other coverage-related sources, leaving a net cost of $624 billion for the coverage provisions.
Other provisions affecting direct spending save $478 billion, on net—mostly in Medicare—and other provisions affecting revenues reduce the deficit by $264 billion, on net. Thus, the net effect on deficits of the bill as a whole equals $624 billion less $478 billion less $264 billion, or a reduction of $118 billion over the 2010-2019 period.
In total, CBO and JCT estimate that the legislation would increase outlays by $355 billion and increase revenues by $473 billion between 2010 and 2019.
CBO has not completed an estimate of all of the discretionary costs that would be associated with the legislation.
Those costs would depend on future appropriations and are not included in today’s estimate of the direct spending and revenue effects of the bill.
As indicated in CBO’s earlier estimate, such costs would probably include an estimated $5 billion to $10 billion over 10 years for administrative costs of the Internal Revenue Service and at least a similar amount for expenses of the Department of Health and Human Services.
CBO has also identified at least $50 billion in specified and estimated authorizations of future discretionary spending for a number of grant programs and other provisions of the legislation; whether some or all of those costs would be incurred would depend on future appropriation legislation.
Other elements of the analysis that CBO and JCT provided on December 19 have not changed significantly:
* Although CBO and JCT have not updated their estimates of the likely impact of the legislation on health insurance premiums, that impact would probably be quite similar to the one estimated for an earlier version of the legislation.
* CBO expects that the legislation, if enacted, would reduce federal budget deficits over the decade after 2019 relative to those projected under current law—with a total effect during that decade that is in a broad range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of GDP. That judgment is unchanged from CBO’s previous assessment, and the imprecision of that calculation reflects the even greater degree of uncertainty that attends to it, compared with CBO’s 10-year budget estimates.
* Under the legislation, federal outlays for health care would increase during the 2010–2019 period, as would the federal budgetary commitment to health care (a term that CBO discussed earlier). CBO now estimates that the federal commitment would increase by about $210 billion over that period, rather than by $200 billion as previously estimated.
In subsequent years, however, the effects of the legislation that would tend to decrease the federal budgetary commitment to health care would grow faster than those that would increase it. As a result, CBO expects that the legislation would generate a reduction in the federal budgetary commitment to health care during the decade following 2019; that judgment is unchanged from CBO’s previous assessment.
This is an important document ‘cause estimates of spending have always been very accurate. /not
too bad Hoyer already said, all we have is an ‘estimate’...but nice spin article...it hit the talking points they were directed to hit Tuesday night...
On the verge of the most fateful week in healthcare , the White House on Tuesday told House Democrats exactly what to say to sell the idea of health reform — even as they know the final package of reforms has yet to be written.
The irony of the Simas presentation is that it describes phrases and selling points on a bill that doesn’t exist.
Following today’s meetings with Emanuel and other top Democrats, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said there are no firm cost estimates available from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
“We have estimates,” Hoyer said.
Even so, the White House talking points advise members to tell voters health reform “brings down costs for everyone” and provides “$1 trillion of deficit reduction over the next two decades.”
The talking points also advise Democrats to tout the newfound “control” Americans will have over health care.
“I don’t believe,” page 2 of the slide show suggests Democrats say, “we should give the government or the insurance companies more control over health care in America. I believe it’s time to give you - the American people - more control over your own health insurance.”
Page 3 of the White House presentation also advises Democrats on how to talk “to the 85 percent with insurance,” suggesting they highlight the bill “holds insurance companies accountable” and give voters “more insurance choices.”
Obama promised $2,500 health care savings; CBO says plan is $2,300 price increase
It “saves” money by increasing taxes by more than it increases spending. We are supposed to buy that this is fiscally responsible.
They simply further increase taxes so that it is revenue neutral to the government - but that is hardly revenue neutral to taxpayers.
“CBO has not completed an estimate of all of the discretionary costs that would be associated with the legislation.”
I wonder what the discretionary costs are going to be? I’m not quite sure if I understand all this but it seems all costs should be counted.
Ya, these same geniuses had “estimates” that if their stimulus was passed that unemployment would top out at 8%...
Instead we got much higher unemployment and nearly a trillion dollars of debt that generations will have to pay for.
Brilliant...
It is beyond ludicrous to imagine that any health care program overseen by politicians is going to save one red cent. The dynamic of whining interest groups looking for special favors and politicians selling themselves for $$ and votes will inevitably, inexorably, ineluctibly drive the cost for any such program to many multiples of its original projected cost.
PLEASE CALL! DC OFFICE LOCAL OFFICE State District
Code Red” - House Target List on Health Care
The National Republican Congressional Committee has published a target list on health care. In addition to continuing to contact the five Tennessee Democrat Congressmen, you can go http://www.votervoice.net/link/clickthrough/ext/94697.aspx to contact some of these targets. Much of the talk following Obama’s announcement has focused on how to defeat this second bill through reconciliation, but that is misleading because the first step to defeating Obamacare is not by concentrating on defeating the “fixer” bill but by defeating the Senate bill in the House when it goes to the floor for an up-or-down vote on Thursday, March 18th.
Rep. Lincoln Davis 202-225-6831 Columbia office: 931-490-8699
Rep. Jim Cooper 202-225-4311 Nashville office: 615-736-5295
Rep. Bart Gordon 202-225-4231 Murfreesboro office: 615-896-1986
John Tanner (202) 225-4714, Union City, (731) 885-7070, Jackson Phone: (731) 423-4848, Millington (901) 873-5690 TN (MAYBE)
Rep. Steve Cohen 202-225-3265 Memphis office: 901-544-4131
Harry Mitchell (202) 225-2190 (480) 946-2411 AZ 5th District
Gabrielle Giffords (202) 225-2542 (520) 881-3588 AZ 8th District
Ann Kirkpatrick (202) 225-2315 (928) 226-6914 AZ 1st District
Jerry McNerney (202) 225-1947 925-833-0643 CA 11th District
John Salazar 202-225-4761 970-245-7107 CO 3rd District
Jim Himes (202) 225-5541 (866) 453-0028 CT 4th District
Alan Grayson (202) 225-2176 (407) 841-1757 FL 8th District
Bill Foster (202) 225-2976 630-406-1114 IL 14th District
Baron Hill 202 225 5315 812 288 3999 IN 9th District
Mark Schauer (202) 225-6276 (517) 780-9075 MI 7th District
Gary Peters (202) 225-5802 (248) 273-4227 MI 9th District
Dina Titus (202) 225-3252 702-256-DINA (3462) NV 3rd District
Carol Shea-Porter (202) 225-5456 (603) 743-4813 NH 1st District
Tim Bishop (202) 225-3826 (631) 696-6500 NY 1st District
John Hall (202) 225-5441 (845) 225-3641 x49371 NY 19th District
Bill Owens (202) 225-4611 (315) 782-3150 NY 23rd District
Mike Arcuri (202)225-3665 (315)793-8146 NY 24th District
Dan Maffei (202) 225-3701 (315) 423-5657 NY 25th District
Earl Pomeroy (202) 225-2611 (701) 224-0355 ND At-Large District
Steven Driehaus (202) 225-2216 (513) 684-2723 OH 1st District
Mary Jo Kilroy (202) 225-2015 (614) 294-2196 OH 15th District
Zach Space (202) 225-6265 (330) 364-4300 OH 18th District
Kathy Dahlkemper (202) 225-5406 (814) 456-2038 PA 3rd District
Patrick Murphy (202) 225-4276 (215) 826-1963 PA 8th District
Christopher Carney (202) 225-3731 (570) 585-9988 PA 10th District
Paul Kanjorski (202) 225-6511 (570) 825-2200 PA 11th District
John Spratt (202) 225-5501 (803)327-1114 SC 5th District
Tom Perriello (202) 225-4711 (276) 656-2291 VA 5th District
Alan Mollohan (202) 225-4172 (304) 623-4422 WVA 1st District
Nick Rahall (202) 225-3452 (304) 252-5000 WVA 3rd District
Steve Kagen (202) 225-5665 (920) 437-1954 WI 8th District
Bart Stupak (202) 225 4735 MI (MAYBE)
Brian Baird (202) 225-3536, Vancouver, (360) 695-6292. Olympia, (360) 352-9768, (MAYBE)
senator mark begich (202) 224-3004 toll free. (877) 501 - 6275 just became a MAYBE
Jason Altmire 202-225-2565, Aliquippa, 724-378-0928,
Natrona Heights, 724-226-1304 (MAYBE)
On the Bubble (Major developments from the “yes” and “no” columns in the House)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2467046/posts
“Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.” ~~ President Ronald Reagan
We The People, Ray Stevens (obamacare) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc_-L4fyLUo
OBAMANOMICS—TRICKLE DOWN DESTRUCTION of the economy
Bambi doesn’t keep his promises...so buyer beware!
SET THEIR LOCAL AND DC LINES ON FIRE!
PLEASE ASK THEM TO REPEAL THE BIG NEW FEES in TRICARE for Life, the retired Military over 65 secondary health ins. which they passed in a DOD bill. They promised our Military these benefits, and our Military have earned them.
Sen Scott Brown’s number is 202-224-4543
Capitol Hill switchboard is 202-224-3121
Lots of local demwit phone numbers on this thread
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2408217/posts
Rename, repackage, rewrite it a tad smaller, and sell another pig in a poke. NO COLAs for granny, retired Military or retired fed employees. BIG NEW fees for Tricare for Life retired over 65 Military’s secondary health ins. (DOD bill already passed, delayed but goes into effect 2011 NEEDS TO BE REPEALED!
..............................
OBAMA’s WAR ON SENIORS http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2433867/posts/
New Dem mantra: Woof, woof eat dog food granny....ala let them eat cake.
Obama Puts Social Security on the Chopping Block
http://motherjones.com/mojo/2010/01/obama-puts-social-security-chopping-block
Obama says slight fix will extend Social Security, http://townhall.com/news/us/2010/02/19/obama_says_slight_fix_will_extend_social_security
Health Care Rationing for Seniors Another Problem in New Obama Plan http://www.lifenews.com/bio3058.html
Medicare tax may apply to investment income (ObamaCare tax hike)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2460988/posts
Obama: No reduced Medicare benefits in health care reform
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/07/28/obama.health.care/index.html
Will healthcare reform mean cuts in Medicare for seniors?
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2009/1017/will-healthcare-reform-mean-cuts-in-medicare-for-seniors
Health Reform’s Hidden Victims Young people and seniors would pay a high price for ObamaCare.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203517304574306303720472842.html
Defaulted Loans May Haunt Seniors (Cuts SS CHECKS)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2467213/posts
Obama to outline $313 billion in Medicare, Medicaid spending cuts
http://articles.latimes.com/2009/jun/14/nation/na-obama-radio14
A trip to the grocery store Tuesday saw cost of food skyrocketing again.
http://seniorjournal.com/NEWS/SocialSecurity/2009/20090629-SenCitMayNotGet.htm
Report: Bill would reduce senior care Medicare cuts approved by House may affect access to providers
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/14/AR2009111402597.html
Unions Cut Special Deal on Health Taxes (Healthcare cost for seniors going up to pay for unions)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704281204575003040695279432.html
Obamanomics parasitic bump.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.