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Sarah Palin's 2012 Opportunity
US News and World Report's Washington Whispers ^ | September 28, 2010 | Paul Bedard and Caitlin Huey-Burns

Posted on 09/28/2010 8:55:19 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The odds-on favorite to win the GOP presidential nod in 2012 is none other than Sarah Palin, according to a statistical formula developed by Villanova University Prof. Lara Brown. The professor's figuring is bad news for presumed hopefuls like Rep. Mike Pence, Sen. Jim DeMint, ex-Gov. Mitt Romney, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Gov. Haley Barbour, and former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton. Many simply joined the game too late, says Brown, author of the new book Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants, which studies every election since the founding. Others, like DeMint, are still brewing but won't be ready until 2016. As for Newt? "I don't think the GOP can forgive him," she says.

The book devises an "opportunism variable" based on the candidate's résumé to explain who wins the presidency and why. Palin has an advantage because she has been elected both mayor and governor. She also was a major party vice presidential nominee, giving her an enviable breadth of political experience. According to Brown, candidates who take risks and run for a variety of offices do well. It's even better if they lose a presidential race or two. "It takes about a run and a half to get there," Brown says. Pols "may think they can get it done in six months or a year, but [winning] will actually take them running, losing, and planting seeds," she says.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; congress; cultofpalin; demint; gingrich; iampalinhearmeroar; iquitarod; jonestownredux; mittromney; obama; odonnell; palin; palinbotsassemble; palinkoolaidfactory; palinlovefest; pdsfoundhere; rabstrollsagain; rino; romney; romney4romney; sarahmcpalin; sarahpalin; teaparty
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To: berdie

No doubt she would have to be more measured in what she says...but if I didn’t think she would continue to tweak the Left, I wouldn’t vote for her.


241 posted on 09/29/2010 9:08:46 AM PDT by gogeo ("Every one has a right to be an idiot. He abuses the privilege!" Groucho Marx)
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To: Chunga
I beg your pardon ma'am:

I'm a "sir."

Is Alan Keyes going to run again?

Probably. The man's a lunatic.

242 posted on 09/29/2010 9:09:34 AM PDT by EveningStar (Karl Marx is not one of our Founding Fathers.)
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To: Aria

The rules of politics are different. Sarah may well be rewriting them at the RATs expense, rather than the other way around.


243 posted on 09/29/2010 9:13:58 AM PDT by gogeo ("Every one has a right to be an idiot. He abuses the privilege!" Groucho Marx)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I like Governor Palin, but I believe that her leaving office early in Alaska will doom her 2012 candidacy. I'm not criticizing the choice she made under the circumstances, but leaving office after less than two years will hurt her. She has the name recognition right now, and she'll get some good endorsements. Her campaign will still have problems. Maybe I'll be supporting her in a year, but I'm not optimistic about her chances.

Bill

244 posted on 09/29/2010 9:16:49 AM PDT by WFTR (Liberty isn't for cowards)
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To: mkjessup

You whine like an Islamist.


245 posted on 09/29/2010 9:17:57 AM PDT by gogeo ("Every one has a right to be an idiot. He abuses the privilege!" Groucho Marx)
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To: EveningStar
My disagreements are mainly with Palin's rabid followers, who insist on putting her on a pedestal. They truly believe that someone who quit after half a term as governor of the 4th least populous state is qualified to be POTUS...

That is exactly why I support her.

246 posted on 09/29/2010 9:22:21 AM PDT by gogeo ("Every one has a right to be an idiot. He abuses the privilege!" Groucho Marx)
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To: rabscuttle385

Yeah. I’m going to pull for the person who, as a VP pick, would say; “I disagree with X on almost everything. I’m not going to even give the appearance of being a team player because some day I will want people like rabscuttle385 to think highly of me.”

Oh... that would be nobody. Nobody who’s not a moron.


247 posted on 09/29/2010 9:29:34 AM PDT by Lee'sGhost (Johnny Rico picked the wrong girl!)
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To: ReneeLynn; onyx
Got any pics of Todd with a gun that could take the place of the troll there? :)

Now, there's a great idea! :)


248 posted on 09/29/2010 9:34:41 AM PDT by Allegra (Flank steak is very lean.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; pissant

Hello? 2nd? You pinged? I would be happy with Palin or Hunter or Bolton, but no RINO need apply! Both major parties have been seriously infiltrated by Progressives, so we need a candidate who can stand on his/her own merits, and the wisdom to choose a top of the art and dedicated campaign manager. We also need voters who love this country and their freedoms and who know and revere the truth.


249 posted on 09/29/2010 10:11:47 AM PDT by Paperdoll (Socialism is Suicide!)
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To: stephenjohnbanker; mkjessup; EveningStar; Mojave; sickoflibs; rabscuttle385
RE :”Palin is on record for....Amnesty

I thought she is now for registration of illegals. Is’t that better than amnesty? In fact it is sort of mysterious. I guess we better pass the bill to see what's in it. I think poor Tony Snow said that on Rush's and Ingraham’s shows during the Bush immigration reform congressional push. He told them :"WAIT till the final bill before you criticize it".

250 posted on 09/29/2010 10:13:14 AM PDT by sickoflibs ("It's not the taxes, the redistribution is the federal spending=tax delayed")
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To: WFTR
I like Governor Palin, but I believe that her leaving office early in Alaska will doom her 2012 candidacy. I'm not criticizing the choice she made under the circumstances, but leaving office after less than two years will hurt her.

Governor Palin was elected in November of 2006, and left the office on July 26, 2009, to continue her work to build a national conservative movement.

251 posted on 09/29/2010 10:15:37 AM PDT by ansel12 ([fear of Islam.] Once you are paralyzed by fear of Mohammedanism...you have lost the battle.)
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To: sickoflibs

” I thought she is now for registration of illegals. Is’t that better than amnesty?”

It IS amnesty. Watch the video. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus first floated this last spring.


252 posted on 09/29/2010 10:17:51 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker
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To: ansel12

She actually left office on August 26, 2009, 15 mos and 1 week prior to the end of her term. Thus, she was in office as governor 15 months less than Romney.


253 posted on 09/29/2010 11:05:34 AM PDT by SallyH
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To: PA Engineer

Bolton is needed in any new government that is formed in 2014.So are men like Tom DeLay.The RINOs need to be run out of town, and we do not need people who say one thingyet do another. That has nearly destroyed America.


254 posted on 09/29/2010 11:08:34 AM PDT by Candor7 (Obama . fascist info..http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/barack_obama_the_quintessentia_1.html)
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To: ansel12; WFTR
Governor Palin was elected in November of 2006, and left the office on July 26, 2009, to continue her work to build a national conservative movement write a book and make $$$.

Fixed.

255 posted on 09/29/2010 11:19:41 AM PDT by EveningStar (Karl Marx is not one of our Founding Fathers.)
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To: EveningStar

It is impossible to deny her success in leading, and helping to build one of the greatest conservative movements this nation has seen.

Even you cannot rewrite the last two years of political history.


256 posted on 09/29/2010 11:22:18 AM PDT by ansel12 ([fear of Islam.] Once you are paralyzed by fear of Mohammedanism...you have lost the battle.)
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To: stephenjohnbanker; mkjessup; Mojave; sickoflibs; rabscuttle385; All
“”Registration”” amnesty by Palin. (endorsed by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus as a “back door” amnesty.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOwLBA7yN-I&feature=related

How dare that mean old Bill O'Reilly throw Saint Sarah anything but softballs!

Face it. The woman's a political lightweight.

257 posted on 09/29/2010 11:27:42 AM PDT by EveningStar (Karl Marx is not one of our Founding Fathers.)
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To: EveningStar

Palin has never been a conservative.


258 posted on 09/29/2010 11:37:27 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker
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To: EveningStar

That “political lightweight” is the most powerful politician in America.

That “political lightweight” is the leader of the conservative movement.

That “political lightweight” is Obama’s biggest opponent in America.

I know this clashes with the gay power movement, but so be it.


259 posted on 09/29/2010 11:39:21 AM PDT by ansel12 ([fear of Islam.] Once you are paralyzed by fear of Mohammedanism...you have lost the battle.)
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To: ansel12; EveningStar; mkjessup; DoughtyOne; Mojave; AuntB; rabscuttle385; sickoflibs

That “political lightweight” is the most powerful politician in America.

That “political lightweight” is the leader of the conservative movement.”

You say....

That “political lightweight” is Obama’s biggest opponent in America.”

uh no....Jim DeMint and Issa hold that distinction, and they have political offices at stake. Palin merely has book sales to worry about.

” I know this clashes with the gay power movement, but so be it.”

Sooooo....once again the “HOMO SLUR” on people who disagree about Palin. Better post a few more pictures of her to cool yourself off.


260 posted on 09/29/2010 11:58:59 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker
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