Posted on 10/21/2010 8:24:28 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Richard has formed in the Caribbean Sea. The five day forecast indicates the system will move into the Gulf of Mexico.
Satellite Images & Loops (Atl Floater 1)
Buoy Data:
Western Caribbean
Florida & Eastern GOM
Western GOM
No problem this weekend, unless you were headed to Central America. Halloween weekend may be interesting.
That's what all the models seem to say also, thank heavens for us. Not so good for the western FL peninsula though.
THIS JUST IN:
BARNEY FRANK ANNOUNCES VACATION IN COZUMEL!
HEARD THERE WAS A BIG DICK BLOWING IN MEXICO!.........
And yet in 1985 Hurricane Kate hit us in Panama City and the Gulf water temp offshore was 74 degrees. A hurricane that has already formed and strengthened can still cross some cooler waters an maintain itself on inertia before substantially diminishing (still enough left to cause a mess).
We had a similar thing happen with Hurricane Opal that crossed sea water temps in the mid 70's and hit us with both barrels in 1995.
Once it gets its "mainspring" wound up, water temps in the 70's are still warm enough to let it finish the trip if it doesn't have to go too far.
The storm needs 26 degrees C/79 degrees F to form, but it can coast a surprising distance before it loses that head of steam...happened to me twice in exactly ten years. Kate landed a few days before Thanksgiving in '85.
The first hurricane I worked was Camille in '69 then Agnes '72, Eloise '75, Elena '85, Kate'85, Erin and Opal both in '95.
These were just the ones that hit at or near enough to Panama City to do considerable damage.
Think we have another front coming so this one is probably yours. Not that we couldn’t stand a little rain, but that doesn’t happen here.
His friends call him "Dick". In fact, so do his enemies.
That GFDL model is no good.
Opal’s US landfall was on October 4. That’s three weeks earlier than Little Richard, and makes a world of difference this time of year in SSTs. I certainly understand your desire not to repeat the experience. We’ve all been there more than enough times.
I’m so tired of getting pinched from pieces of storms....(thanks for the thread NN)
Interesting, the NHC now gives that Cape Verde disturbance a medium chance of developing. It’s pretty late in the season for Cape Verde development.
I retired after 40-some odd years in the hurricane forecasting business, so I am aware of the SST trends.
You forgot the fact that Hurricane Kate hit the Panhandle on November 21st of 1985 roughly five weeks later than "Richard" and the water temp was 74 degrees which is cooler than it is now...and it didn't make a "world of difference" although I would have preferred it to do so.
We had a lot of people who simply could not believe a hurricane could hit that late... a few days before Thanksgiving.
Darnit, and that's the one that had the best chance of looping around and knocking El Jefe Fidel on his big fat culo, isn't it? :-)
(Glad the Cuban people aren't likely to get hit since that model is faulty, though; they seem to suffer more than any on the planet from the ravages of huracánes.. They need a break - a decade long break at least!)
A little rain would be nice though. It doesn't have to be hurricane rain, just your average kind of rain.
Far be it from me to challlenge anyone with your expertise, but Wikipedia does note that SSTs that November were exceptionally warm, with a persistent ridge over the SE states. It can and does happen, but I continue to believe we’ll have no major trouble this year.
No offense intended to your professionalism, but like most other life-long residents of New Orleans I’ve become accustomed to weighing the odds for myself.
I don’t think it will amount to anything either, but I don’t want anyone to have any false hopes, thinking it couldn’t happen.
With each of the successive forecast model runs, one or another of them insists on driving Richard into Tampa Bay. Eeesh.
Bump for Belize
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