http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/co/colorado_governor_maes_vs_hickenlooper_vs_tancredo-1677.html I suspect this poll, Tancredo had the momentum and was closing.
Posted on 10/24/2010 8:27:31 AM PDT by MissTed
Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Hickenlooper has a wide lead over his opponents going into the last days of the election, despite third-party candidate Tom Tancredo's ability to siphon votes from the Republican nominee, according to a Denver Post/9News poll.
With 49 percent of those surveyed backing him, Hickenlooper now has more support than Tancredo and Republican candidate Dan Maes combined.
Tancredo, a former Republican congressman, continues to peel off GOP voters, garnering 39 percent, while Maes continues to slide, coming in at 9 percent. Only 1 percent of those polled said they were undecided.
"It's hard to see how Tancredo changes this game. Even if Maes drops to 5 percent, it isn't enough," said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli. "Hickenlooper has had the benefit of not having to deal with just one Republican opponent and has kept a low profile, eliminating the chances of making mistakes and starting controversies."
Last-minute switch
Tancredo switched his affiliation to the American Constitution Party and announced his candidacy right before the August GOP primary. Maes and Scott McInnis, both hit with scandals and missteps, refused Tancredo's call to get out after the primary if the winner trailed Hickenlooper in the polls. Maes edged out McInnis, but his numbers have consistently declined in the past two months.
If Maes doesn't get at least 10 percent of the vote, Republicans will drop to minor-party status. At this point, most political observers agree that Tancredo has become the de facto GOP candidate.
The implosion of both the McInnis and Maes candidacies has given Hickenlooper, the mayor of Denver, a significant edge in a year in which Republicans are expected to pick up seats all over the country.
Instead of having to fight in the trenches, Hickenlooper has had the luxury of remaining what Ciruli calls "bland and issueless," as well as of appearing at fewer public events than most major gubernatorial candidates in years past.
It's the kind of strategy that looks politically savvy if he wins but naive if he loses, said Norman Provizer, a political scientist at Metropolitan State College of Denver.
"It's a calculated move. If I were consulting him, I would've said, 'We're in good shape; let's not go negative, let's not rock the vote,' " Provizer said.
Hickenlooper is collecting almost 90 percent of Democratic votes and leads Tancredo among those surveyed who have already returned a ballot by 14 percentage points. Among those who haven't voted but say they will, Hickenlooper is up by 7 percentage points.
Tancredo is picking up two out of three GOP voters and four out of 10 unaffiliateds.
While Tancredo has a 3 percentage point lead among men and is ahead in the Colorado Springs area, Hickenlooper has a 25 percentage point lead among women and is ahead in the metro Denver area and the rest of the state.
The automated telephone poll of 621 likely and actual voters was conducted by Survey USA Tuesday to Thursday last week and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Personal choices
Democrat Carole Tomsick of Arvada said her top concern is the economy. She likes that Hickenlooper ran a business before becoming mayor.
"Jobs and business are what I'm worried about," said Tomsick, who is retired. "Hickenlooper is far superior than the others, and I have more trust in him."
Richard Van Dresser, a retired steel worker from Pueblo, said he's backing Tancredo.
"Maes seems like a crook, and Hickenlooper is way too liberal," said Van Dresser, 58, who is a registered unaffiliated. "And Tancredo said he will do something about illegal immigration
Yes, it's true, you have to have failed English comprehension at the most basic level in order to be qualified to be a lamestream media "journalist".
Right. [C]Hickenlooper calling every Coloradan outside Denver a potentially violent homophobe just never happened.
Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli is a Democrat Party Hack.
This fictional poll is designed to create reality, not report on it.
Margin of error is 99%. LOL...
Do the people from Hollywood or any other state for that matter have a vote in Colorado if they have a vote in California or other states, owning homes in both states? Colorado is a vacation spot for the rich..This might be something someone should look into..I don't think you can vote in two states..That is legally..
Good. Report this to all the Dems. No reason at all for them to go to the polls whatsoever...
1984, on election eve the MSM was STILL touting "neck -n- neck" between Mondale and Reagan!
Rasmussen says that Tancredo is continuing to close the gap and that this race is a toss up. I believe Rasmussen.
Tancredo is toast in my book. Those pushing him to run in 2012 I say screw him.
How were they able to hone in so tightly on it with only 621 calls? LOL!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/co/colorado_governor_maes_vs_hickenlooper_vs_tancredo-1677.html I suspect this poll, Tancredo had the momentum and was closing.
Reminds me of a somewhat recent election(my memory is not what it used to be)
CNN said that Texas could go Democrat and that it was to close to call. They played this right up to the last second and then finally called the race for Republicans on election night...Was not even close
Has Denver Post endorsed anybody? I take it they are a Republican right leaning outfit?? WINK WINK HEAVY SARCASM :)
Not an insurmountable lead: (I would question anything that has the word ‘comfy’ in the title. What serious journalist would choose that?)
Colo. Governor
Hickenlooper (D) 45%
Maes (R) 10%
Tancredo (C) 40%
10/16 Fox News/Pulse 1,000 LV
Source: Politico: Campaign Polling Center
http://www.politico.com/2010/pollingcenter.html
SUSA polls aren’t biased, but they are significantly more erratic than Raz or Mason-Dixon.
Don’t believe it!!
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