Posted on 11/02/2010 1:25:42 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
It's been a fun ride watching our list of Vulnerable Dems grow and the predictions of our six "Experts" move in the GOP direction week after week.
But today is the day when we cash in on all of the hard work. I hope everyone has voted and is ready for the Super Bowl of midterm elections. Grab your popcorn, settle back in that easy chair and watch the Dems squirm while they explain to all of us that it really is just anger over the "Bush Recession" and not Obama's policies that is causing the American public to turn on their party and vote them out of power in the House of Representatives and perhaps in the Senate as well. You can also expect to hear the lame "We just didn't do a good job selling Obamacare" argument ad nauseum on CNN and MSNBC. And you must watch those channels tonight - they are way more fun than Fox on election nights like this.
This thread is focused on the competitive House races that we have been tracking for the better part of a year - the races on the KeyHouseRaces Master List. If you looking for general election news covering the Senate or the Governor races your best bet will be the Election Day 2010 LIVE THREAD.
We will be generating update summaries of the House races that have been called by trustworthy sources and will post those updates on KeyHouseRaces.com and here on FR. We will also be posting on Twitter as we see races that are on our list where the winner has been called.
We will be monitoring FR for our data so we are hoping that Free Republic stays up and that Freepers will be doing their normal good job of posting the latest poll results.
Just for reference, here are the Poll Closing Times via SwingStateProject:
OH-15 Stivers-R wins
The experts are looking pretty good right now.
Great news about Kinzinger in IL-11! Air Force captain, impressive young man. Debbie Halvorson may have to go back to selling for Mary Kay.....
PA-08 Fitzpatrick-R wins by 8 pts.
One Murphy down, two more to go.
KS-03 Yoder-R wins
PA-12 Critz-D wins - the people there are still brain dead.
So far, all Toss Ups on Master List that have been called have gone GOP - 9 of them.
IL-14 Hultgren-R wins 51-45% at this point.
KS-03 Yoder-R wins
ND-AL Berg Wins54-46%
NC-02 Ellmers up by 3,000 with just a few precincts to go.
KHR Toss Up status: GOP 10, DEM 0
GA-02 Keown-R wins 53-47%
IL house races look good.
OH-01 Chabot beats Driehaus-R 52%-45%
MN-06 Bachmann wins
AR-02 Griffin-R wins by 21%
A big one for Freepers:
Allen West wins - FL 22
Farenthold (R) 46,608
Ortiz (D) 46,531
88% reporting
Less than 100 vote difference . . . . . and the Libertarian has almost 5,000 votes! What a spoiler.
BIG ONE:
NC-02 Ellmers-R wins! THug Etheridge is OUT!
BIG ONE:
NC-02 Ellmers-R wins! THug Etheridge is OUT!
NY-20 Gibson-R wins
TWO Murphys down - one to go!
Blech...
The experts held back for too long and rushed ahead of the parade in the last weeks.
This table is a breakout of each expert's trend of assessments.
Week | Sabato | CQP | EP.Com | Cook | Rothenberg | RCP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-May-10 | 205.13 | 202.9 | 206.85 | 206.76 | 203.1 | 213.38 |
19-Jun-10 | 207.51 | 205.63 | 210.49 | 207.64 | 203.35 | 216.33 |
10-Jul-10 | 207.87 | 205.64 | 209.4 | 208.16 | 203.99 | 214.37 |
17-Jul-10 | 207.4 | 205.12 | 210.12 | 207.63 | 203.51 | 213.9 |
24-Jul-10 | 207.28 | 205.26 | 210.33 | 208.03 | 207.38 | 213.83 |
31-Jul-10 | 206.71 | 204.67 | 211.75 | 208.78 | 207.22 | 215.1 |
07-Aug-10 | 206.75 | 204.65 | 212 | 208.77 | 207.19 | 215.35 |
14-Aug-10 | 206.78 | 204.81 | 212.86 | 208.97 | 207.23 | 215.49 |
21-Aug-10 | 206.7 | 204.78 | 213.14 | 210.76 | 207.19 | 216.42 |
28-Aug-10 | 206.75 | 208.66 | 214.13 | 210.74 | 207.62 | 217.58 |
04-Sep-10 | 210.14 | 208.68 | 215.4 | 211.8 | 207.53 | 218.1 |
11-Sep-10 | 211.15 | 209.09 | 216.53 | 214.14 | 210.88 | 220.32 |
18-Sep-10 | 211.34 | 209.23 | 217.05 | 214.66 | 211.98 | 220.5 |
25-Sep-10 | 211.3 | 212.2 | 216.89 | 215.17 | 212.56 | 220.21 |
02-Oct-10 | 213.74 | 212.48 | 219.97 | 215.52 | 215.01 | 221.51 |
09-Oct-10 | 215.69 | 214.19 | 220.05 | 220.36 | 215.81 | 224.86 |
16-Oct-10 | 218.19 | 215.75 | 225.16 | 220.78 | 218.26 | 226.5 |
23-Oct-10 | 221 | 219.46 | 227.25 | 224.04 | 221.38 | 229.2 |
30-Oct-10 | 224.59 | 222.28 | 230.13 | 226.36 | 224.09 | 232.66 |
01-Nov-10 | 224.62 | 223.63 | 232.47 | 228.69 | 224.07 | 234.03 |
This map is of the House predictions, using polls where available.
This map is just the experts, without poll overrides.
-PJ
she’s ahead by more than 1pt now
NY25
47.4% Maffei*
52.6% Buerkle
29% reporting
Hold off on that NC-02 result. Not official yet, but being heavily tweeted that Ellmers will win.
That would be an upset. If that one goes GOP, that bodes well for the other competitive races in NY.
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