The KeyHouseRaces Election Night Open Thread

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 2 November 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

It's been a fun ride watching our list of Vulnerable Dems grow and the predictions of our six "Experts" move in the GOP direction week after week.

But today is the day when we cash in on all of the hard work. I hope everyone has voted and is ready for the Super Bowl of midterm elections. Grab your popcorn, settle back in that easy chair and watch the Dems squirm while they explain to all of us that it really is just anger over the "Bush Recession" and not Obama's policies that is causing the American public to turn on their party and vote them out of power in the House of Representatives and perhaps in the Senate as well. You can also expect to hear the lame "We just didn't do a good job selling Obamacare" argument ad nauseum on CNN and MSNBC. And you must watch those channels tonight - they are way more fun than Fox on election nights like this.

This thread is focused on the competitive House races that we have been tracking for the better part of a year - the races on the KeyHouseRaces Master List. If you looking for general election news covering the Senate or the Governor races your best bet will be the Election Day 2010 LIVE THREAD.

We will be generating update summaries of the House races that have been called by trustworthy sources and will post those updates on KeyHouseRaces.com and here on FR. We will also be posting on Twitter as we see races that are on our list where the winner has been called.

We will be monitoring FR for our data so we are hoping that Free Republic stays up and that Freepers will be doing their normal good job of posting the latest poll results.

Just for reference, here are the Poll Closing Times via SwingStateProject:

[Hush44]

NY20

New York House 20th District

Votes (345 of 474)
Christopher Gibson (R,C) 75671
Scott Murphy (D,I,WF) 60216
Last Updated: 11/2/2010 11:17 pm
+15455

ALL the local pundits have already called this for Gibson
even tho Natl hasnt (local know the precints better)
anyway, we’re just waiting for Murphy’s concession call

[OrangeHoof]

We’re kicking butt in House membership and governorships but we didn’t get the job done in the Senate although we may still get some good wins late.

[Hush44]

NY23 got off to a bad start, could still pull it off

[randita]

NC-11 Schuler-D wins

NC-07 McIntyre-D wins

North Carolina disappoints big time. Ellmers only possibility for redemption.

VA-11 - Candidates separated by only 500 votes.

Allow me a celebratory yell - YYYYEEEAAAHHH - Toomey WINS!

[Crichton]

Upstate went with the wave, LI & City not so much.

Better candidates upstate too, and less infighting (Doheny-Hoffman aside).

[randita]

MS-04 Palazzo-R defeats Taylor 52-47%
NC-02 Ellmers Wins
NY-29 Reed-R wins

[paul544]

True but in all honesty we basically handed them DE and NY and maybe NV. Better candidates would have won these.

[InterceptPoint]

The experts held back for too long and rushed ahead of the parade in the last weeks.

For sure - that is what happened. But I think the fact that your curve is still heading up means they are not ahead but at least a little behind the parade.

[Hush44]

NY20

GIBSON wins!

Murphy conceeded LOL

and natl still hasn’t called this election

[randita]

PA-17 Holden-D wins (no surprise here)
MA-10 Keating-D wins
NH-02 Bass-R wins

KHR Toss Up Race Status:

GOP +13
DEM +1

[randita]

MO-04 Hartzler-R beats Skelton 51-45%

GO - GOP WOMEN

[InterceptPoint]

KeyHouseRaces Master List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner		Republican	Experts	District
AL	2	Incumbent D	Bobby Bright			Martha Roby	Toss-Up	AL	2
AR	1	Open D	Chad Causey			Rick Crawford	Leans R	AR	1
AR	2	Open D	Joyce Elliott		WIN	Tim Griffin	Leans R	AR	2
AZ	1	Incumbent D	Ann Kirkpatrick			Paul Gosar	Leans R	AZ	1
AZ	5	Incumbent D	Harold Mitchell			David Schweikert	Toss-Up	AZ	5
AZ	7	Incumbent D	Raúl Grijalva			Ruth McClung	Leans D	AZ	7
AZ	8	Incumbent D	Gabrielle Giffords			Jesse Kelly	Toss-Up	AZ	8
CA	3	Incumbent R	Ami Bera			Dan Lungren	Leans R	CA	3
CA	11	Incumbent D	Jerry McNerney			David Harmer	Toss-Up	CA	11
CA	20	Incumbent D	Jim Costa			Andy Vidak	Toss-Up	CA	20
CA	47	Incumbent D	Loretta Sanchez			Van Tran	Leans D	CA	47
CO	3	Incumbent D	John Salazar			Scott Tipton	Toss-Up	CO	3
CO	4	Incumbent D	Betsy Markey		WIN	Cory Gardner	Leans R	CO	4
CO	7	Incumbent D	Ed Perlmutter			Ryan Frazier	Likely D	CO	7
CT	4	Incumbent D	Jim Himes			Dan Debicella	Leans D	CT	4
CT	5	Incumbent D	Christopher Murphy			Sam Caligiuri	Leans D	CT	5
DE	AL	Open R	John Carney	WIN		Glen Urquhart	Leans D	DE	AL
FL	2	Incumbent D	Allen Boyd		WIN	Steve Southerland	Leans R	FL	2
FL	8	Incumbent D	Alan Grayson		WIN	Daniel Webster	Leans R	FL	8
FL	22	Incumbent D	Ron Klein		WIN	Allen West	Toss-Up	FL	22
FL	24	Incumbent D	Suzanne Kosmas		WIN	Sandy Adams	Leans R	FL	24
FL	25	Open R	Joe Garcia			David Rivera	Leans R	FL	25
GA	2	Incumbent D	Sanford Bishop		WIN	Mike Keown	Toss-Up	GA	2
GA	8	Incumbent D	Jim Marshall			Austin Scott	Leans R	GA	8
HI	1	Incumbent R	Colleen Hanabusa			Charles Djou	Toss-Up	HI	1
IA	1	Incumbent D	Bruce Braley			Ben Lange	Likely D	IA	1
IA	2	Incumbent D	Dave Loebsack			Marianneette Miller Meeks	Likely D	IA	2
IA	3	Incumbent D	Leonard Boswell			Brad Zaun	Leans D	IA	3
ID	1	Incumbent D	Walter Minnick			Raul Labrador	Toss-Up	ID	1
IL	8	Incumbent D	Melissa Bean			Joe Walsh	Likely D	IL	8
IL	10	Open R	Dan Seals			Bob Dold	Toss-Up	IL	10
IL	11	Incumbent D	Debbie Halvorson		WIN	Adam Kinzinger	Likely R	IL	11
IL	14	Incumbent D	Bill Foster		WIN	Randy Hultgren	Toss-Up	IL	14
IL	17	Incumbent D	Phil Hare		WIN	Bobby Schilling	Toss-Up	IL	17
IN	2	Incumbent D	Joe Donnelly	WIN		Jackie Walorski	Leans D	IN	2
IN	8	Open D	W. Trent Van Haaften		WIN	Dr. Larry Bucshon	Likely R	IN	8
IN	9	Incumbent D	Baron Hill		WIN	Todd Young	Toss-Up	IN	9
KS	3	Open D	Stephene Moore		WIN	Kevin Yoder	Likely R	KS	3
KY	6	Incumbent D	Ben Chandler			Andy Barr	Leans D	KY	6
LA	2	Incumbent R	Cedric Richmond	WIN		Joseph Cao	Leans D	LA	2
LA	3	Open D	Ravi Sangisetty		WIN	Jeff Landry	Likely R	LA	3
MA	4	Incumbent D	Barney Frank	WIN		Sean Bielat	Likely D	MA	4
MA	10	Open D	William Keating	WIN		Jeff Perry	Toss-Up	MA	10
MD	1	Incumbent D	Frank Kratovil		WIN	Andy Harris	Leans R	MD	1
ME	1	Incumbent D	Chellie Pingree			Dean Scontras	Likely D	ME	1
ME	2	Incumbent D	Mike Michaud			Jason Levesque	Likely D	ME	2
MI	1	Open D	Gary McDowell		WIN	Dr. Daniel Benishek	Leans R	MI	1
MI	7	Incumbent D	Mark Schauer			Tim Walberg	Toss-Up	MI	7
MI	9	Incumbent D	Gary Peters			"Rocky" Raczowski	Leans D	MI	9
MN	1	Incumbent D	Tim Walz			Randy Demmer	Leans D	MN	1
MN	8	Incumbent D	Jim Oberstar			Chip Cravaack	Likely D	MN	8
MO	3	Incumbent D	Russ Carnahan			Ed Martin	Likely D	MO	3
MO	4	Incumbent D	Ike Skelton			Vicky Hartzler	Toss-Up	MO	4
MS	1	Incumbent D	Travis Childers		WIN	Alan Nunnelee	Toss-Up	MS	1
MS	4	Incumbent D	Gene Taylor			Steven Palazzo	Toss-Up	MS	4
NC	2	Incumbent D	Bob Etheridge			Renee Ellmers	Leans D	NC	2
NC	7	Incumbent D	Mike McIntyre			Ilario Pantano	Leans D	NC	7
NC	8	Incumbent D	Larry Kissell	WIN		Harold Johnson	Toss-Up	NC	8
NC	11	Incumbent D	Heath Shuler			Jeff Miller	Leans D	NC	4
ND	AL	Incumbent D	Earl Pomeroy		WIN	Rick Berg	Toss-Up	ND	AL
NH	1	Incumbent D	Carol Shea-Porter		WIN	Frank Guinta	Leans R	NH	1
NH	2	Open D	Annie Kuster		WIN	Charlie Bass	Toss-Up	NH	2
NJ	3	Incumbent D	John Adler			Jon Runyan	Toss-Up	NJ	3
NM	1	Incumbent D	Martin Heinrich			Jon Barela	Leans D	NM	1
NM	2	Incumbent D	Harry Teague			Steve Pearce	Leans R	NM	2
NV	3	Incumbent D	Dina Titus			Dr. Joe Heck	Leans R	NV	3
NY	1	Incumbent D	Tim Bishop			Randy Altschuler	Toss-Up	NY	1
NY	13	Incumbent D	Mike McMahon			Mike Grimm	Leans D	NY	13
NY	19	Incumbent D	John Hall			Nan Hayworth	Toss-Up	NY	19
NY	20	Incumbent D	Scott Murphy		WIN	Chris Gibson	Toss-Up	NY	20
NY	22	Incumbent D	Maurice Hinchey			George Phillips	Likely D	NY	22
NY	23	Incumbent D	Bill Owens			Matt Doheny	Toss-Up	NY	23
NY	24	Incumbent D	Mike Arcuri			Richard Hanna	Toss-Up	NY	24
NY	25	Incumbent D	Dan Maffei			Ann Marie Buerkle	Leans D	NY	25
NY	29	Open D	Mathew Zeller			Tom Reed	Likely R	NY	29
OH	1	Incumbent D	Steve Driehaus		WIN	Steve Chabot	Leans R	OH	1
OH	6	Incumbent D	Charlie Wilson		WIN	Bill Johnson	Toss-Up	OH	6
OH	13	Incumbent D	Betty Sutton			Tom Ganley	Likely D	OH	13
OH	15	Incumbent D	Mary Jo Kilroy		WIN	Steve Stivers	Likely R	OH	15
OH	16	Incumbent D	John Boccieri			Jim Renacci	Leans R	OH	16
OH	18	Incumbent D	Zach Space		WIN	Bob Gibbs	Toss-Up	OH	18
OR	5	Incumbent D	Kurt Schrader			Scott Bruun	Toss-Up	OR	5
PA	3	Incumbent D	Kathleen Dahlkemper		WIN	Mike Kelly	Leans R	PA	3
PA	4	Incumbent D	Jason Altmire			Keith Rothfus	Likely D	PA	4
PA	7	Open D	Bryan Lentz		WIN	Pat Meehan	Toss-Up	PA	7
PA	8	Incumbent D	Patrick Murphy		WIN	Mike Fitzpatrick	Toss-Up	PA	8
PA	10	Incumbent D	Chris Carney		WIN	Tom Marino	Toss-Up	PA	10
PA	11	Incumbent D	Paul Kanjorski		WIN	Lou Barletta	Toss-Up	PA	11
PA	12	Incumbent D	Mark Critz	WIN		Timothy Burns	Leans D	PA	12
PA	17	Incumbent D	Tim Holden	WIN		David Argall	Likely D	PA	17
RI	1	Open D	David Cicilline			John Loughlin	Leans D	RI	1
SC	5	Incumbent D	John Spratt Jr.		WIN	Mick Mulvaney	Leans R	SC	5
SD	AL	Incumbent D	Stephanie Sandlin			Kristi Noem	Toss-Up	SD	AL
TN	4	Incumbent D	Lincoln Davis		WIN	Dr. Scott Desjarlais	Toss-Up	TN	4
TN	6	Open D	Brett Carter		WIN	Diane Black	Likely R	TN	6
TN	8	Open D	Roy Herron		WIN	Stephen Fincher	Likely R	TN	8
TX	17	Incumbent D	Chet Edwards		WIN	Bill Flores	Likely R	TX	17
TX	23	Incumbent D	Ciro Rodriguez			Quico Canseco	Toss-Up	TX	23
TX	27	Incumbent D	Solomon Ortiz			R. Blake Farenthold	Likely D	TX	27
UT	2	Incumbent D	Jim Matheson			Morgan Philpot	Likely D	UT	2
VA	2	Incumbent D	Glenn Nye		WIN	Scott Rigell	Leans R	VA	2
VA	5	Incumbent D	Tom Perriello		WIN	Robert Hurt	Leans R	VA	5
VA	9	Incumbent D	Rick Boucher		WIN	Morgan Griffith	Leans D	VA	9
VA	11	Incumbent D	Gerald Connolly			Keith Fimian	Leans D	VA	11
WA	2	Incumbent D	Rick Larsen			John Koster	Leans D	WA	2
WA	3	Open D	Denny Heck			Jaime Herrera	Leans R	WA	3
WA	8	Incumbent R	Suzan DelBene			Dave Reichert	Leans R	WA	8
WI	3	Incumbent D	Ron Kind			Dan Kapanke	Leans D	WI	3
WI	7	Open D	Julie Lassa			Sean Duffy	Leans R	WI	7
WI	8	Incumbent D	Steve Kagen			Reid Ribble	Leans R	WI	8
WV	1	Open D	Mike Oliverio			David B. McKinley	Toss-Up	WV	1
WV	3	Incumbent D	Nick Rahall	WIN		"Spike" Maynard	Likely D	WV	3

[jern]

NC2 is a pickup for the GOP. Ellmers won

[randita]

Love that red and there’s going to be a LOT more of it before the night is over. The GOP is killing on the Toss Up races.

NY-19 Hayworth-R wins 53-46%
NY-24 Hanna-R wins 54-45%

NY is delivering!

[randita]

NM-2 Pearce-R wins 55-45%
FL-12 GOP hold

KHR Toss Up Race Status:
GOP +16
DEM-+2

VA-11 is headed for a recount - 500 pt. Connolly lead with 99% in.

[TexasNative2000]

TX-27 Farenthold(R) 50,039(48%) / Ortiz(D) 48,956(47%)

93% reporting. Potentially huge pickup.

[Political Junkie Too]

Yes. Very astute. You are correct.

-PJ

[God luvs America]

NYTimes calling NY -19, -24, -26 & -29 for the GOP....

[randita]

WI-07 and 08- Go to the GOP.

ABC predicts GOP will pick up 60-70 seats.

[randita]

Excellent. We’re hoping for TX 23, 25 and 27.