Sarah Palin's Mike Huckabee problem

WaPo ^ | 6:00 AM ET, 11/23/2010 | By Aaron Blake and Felicia Sonmez

[onyx]

1. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said Monday that Sarah Palin might well "run away" with the Republican nomination for president.

It's funny Huckabee should say such a thing, because he's got a lot of say over whether she does just that. And it has to do with whether he even runs in the first place.

As potential 2012 candidates weigh their prospects and determine their plans for the next presidential race, one thing is clear: that Huckabee and Palin inhabit largely the same space -- i.e. they each would perform well without the other, but they might undercut each other if they are in the same race.

There is currently a four-candidate top-tier consisting of Palin, Huckabee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. And indeed, a new Quinnipiac University poll on Monday showed the four of them all huddled between 15 and 19 percent of the vote.

But while Huckabee and Gingrich have pretty broad support, the base of support for Huckabee and Palin is readily apparent, and for both of them, it starts with born-again evangelicals. The two of them combine for 46 percent of that vote, compared to just 26 percent for Gingrich and Romney. Palin and Huckabee are also the top two vote-getters among women and people without college degrees.

So why is that important? Because if any of the four frontrunners seems least likely to run for president, it would be Huckabee. And, if he doesn't take the plunge, where is his 26 percent share of evangelicals going to go? Where is his 18 percent share of women going? Who gets his 17 percent share of those without college degrees?

The obvious answer to all three of those questions is Palin.

[LibLieSlayer]

Never a doubt.

LLS

[wolfman23601]

Well the one good thing is Huck and Mitt hate each other. I’m not buying that Huck is going to conspire with Mitt to take out Palin. The other way around is more likely. I would never vote for Huck in a primary and he is a lot of things, but an establishment elitist is not one of them.

[t-dude]

It is so weird. They have forgiven him his transgressions (he was just demonstrating his Christian love! He is not responsible for the sin of man...I think they blame the devil)

I’m going to try the Moses and ‘Jesus to Rome’ tack. I gotta find something...

[McGruff]

Huckabee went nowhere in 2008. Why would this time around be any better for him?

[ansel12]

I don’t get that reasoning about 2008, the only guy that could be mad at Huckabee for 2008 would be Mitt Romney.

[t-dude]

You are right, of course. But it’s not so much a conspiracy...the establishment is USING him.

Stroking his ego big time. Just watch for all the positive articles and press he is going to start receiving.

[jennings2004]

Well said, my friend!

[OB1kNOb]

I need ideas on how to stop him here in Iowa.

Do a search on his granting clemency... his raising taxes... his nepotism... his lying... his socialism...

Better yet, look down my About Page for all the ammo you need to get the message out about the Huckster.

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

The GOP "Stop Sarah" crew has found that they are getting no where with Romney, and so now they are falling back on Huck as a possible alternative to Sarah, based on his supposed "evangelical" credentials.

Huck himself is obviously playing along.

[Vigilanteman]

Huck's views on Willie Horton type pardons and open borders certainly put him on the same side as the establishment elitists. He just does a good job of playing good old southern boy populists like two other former governors, one from Arkansas and one from Georgia, both of whom were welcomed into the ranks of establishment elitists once they were elected POTUS.

I'm also not 100% sure that Huck's hatred for Mitt is anything more than show business. They have far more in common than most of their respective fan bases would care to admit.

[RichInOC]

No, seriously...I’m half-Arkie, but if God meant Mike to be president, He wouldn’t have set him down in Hope, nine years after Bill Clinton. Bubba has poisoned that well for the rest of Mike’s life.

And then he’s had two clemency moves go lethally wrong on him, and it’s still two years to the election. If Sarah Palin’s record makes her unelectable in a general election, I have trouble seeing how Mike makes it out of the primary.

[LibLieSlayer]

Amen bro!!!

LLS

[MikeSteelBe]

Bible believing Christians know that there is no such thing as a “Christian homosexual”. That same logic applies to a “Christian socialist”. A socialist is nothing but a patient communist. They are both bent on replacing God in society with government.

[onyx]

Exactly. This punditry and establishment GOP did not get November’s message: BUTT OUT.

The more those two groups try to push candidates, the more those candidates will be rejected “before” the campaigns even start!

[lonestar]

Thanks.

[Psalm 144]

No problem. I am reluctant to repeat any variant account because the exact facts are murky, although the incident is not denied.

Very abnormal, and very disturbing in any rendition though.

[onyx]

Oh, wow. You’ve done a lot of research on Huckabee.
Please see OB1kNOb’s forum page: scroll down until you see the information on Huckabee.

[Lakeshark]

Huck in the race could be a problem siphoning off some socon votes, particularly if a lot of other decent (rather than the indecent Huckster) conservatives run.

Split the vote enough in the base, and the Mittster walks through the door McCain went through.

Look at our new Michigan squish/RINO governor. We had three excellent conservatives running, and this guy was the benefactor of splitting their votes .

[onyx]

I know....lol.

[onyx]

I don’t know. He seems to think he’s better known and oh so popular.