It’s difficult to ascertain (at least at the moment) those most in danger before we see what the lines are for 2012. Undoubtedly, we probably will lose some of the Class of ‘10, of course (and just as undoubtedly, some Democrats that escaped the tide due to whatever reason may also similarly find themselves in trouble — see NC below)...
Farenthold is one of the big concerns, but Hispanic districts in TX haven’t been above electing Whites (such as Gene Green or Lloyd Doggett), he just needs to be very vigilant and work on improving his standing in the southernmost end of that district where he performed weakest (either that, or removing the area below Corpus Christi and giving that to the 15th (Ruben Hinojosa) while removing the north part of that district and giving it to Farenthold).
As for Kissell and the other NC Democrats, they’re all endangered (save for Watt & Butterfield) for 2012 when the GOP finally gets to draw the lines. It’s truly odd that only Etheridge lost (and that, probably solely due to his assault on the college student, otherwise he’d probably have survived). It reminds me of 1920, when NC didn’t elect any Republicans despite the national tide (and sweeps even in neighboring TN and VA), yet they finally cracked by 1928.
The GOP legislators in OH will have to probably sacrifice a seat or two of ours for redistricting. They did virtually nothing for 2002 when they had control (since then-Gov. Taft was apparently terrified about potentially removing then-Rep. Sherrod Brown and having him run against him instead), effectively preserving the ‘90s lines. Fudge is protected by the VRA, but I would try to corral as many Dem voters into the remaining 5 seats (putting Fudge and Kucinich in one seat would be nice) and get them down to 4 if possible.
Bass is, of course, a relatively weak member, but barring a repeat of 2006, I don’t necessarily see it as a given his losing in 2012. He, of course, is the first of his family to make a successful comeback in NH.
Can’t comment much about Marino, but it was more a fluke than anything else that Democrat Carney had the seat at all. It took Don Sherwood’s choking his mistress to finally see us lose the seat.
Chip Cravaack in MN-8 is a concern, too, but for an unusual reason, that of geography. He hails from the extreme southernmost part of the district (indeed, he’s just a short drive from his home in Lindstrom, Chisago County to Michele Bachmann’s home in Stillwater, just a county away) and the folks up in the Northern Range (Duluth, et al) may want one of their own as opposed to someone effectively from the Minny/St. Paul ‘burbs. My advice to Cravaack ? He might literally benefit relocating north to the Duluth area.
There shouldn’t be more than four Democrat seats in OH. The OH-09 should go from Toledo to Northern Lorain (which would have happened had Brown not scared Taft into drawing a safely Dem OH-13 with Northern Lorain and part of Akron); the OH-10 should include white parts of Cleveland, its white Dem suburbs and heavily Dem parts of Lake County; the black-majority OH-11 should include black parts of Cleveland, its black suburbs, and squirrel down to pick up black parts of Akron; and the OH-17 (which will need to be renumbered; I’d call it the OH-13, since the old OH-13 would be eliminated) would go from Dem parts of the Youngstown and Warren area to white parts of Akron and take in Canton as well. The biggest problem in the NE corner of the state is shoring up the Republican OH-14, which would need to gain quite a bit of population (particularly if heavily Dem parts of Lake are excised) despite being boxed in with Democrats all around (and with both the OH-11 and OH-17 needing land bridges to Akron); the way around it is to connect Youngstown to Akron via Alliance, Canton and Massillon in Stark County and include GOP parts of NE Stark County in the OH-14.
There is no need to draw a Dem CD in the rest of the state. The OH-01 can be shored up by giving it Warren County precincts currently in the and having the OH-02 take in white-majority Dem or marginal precincts (splitting up the black pop in Cinci could create unnecessary problems); the Dem-trending Columbus districts could be shored up by (i) adding Morrow County and the rest of Licking County to the OH-12 (and decreasing its Columbus precincts), (ii) adding Logan, Auglaize and Shelby Counties to the OH-15 (and decreasing its Columbus precincts), and (iii) excising Clark, Ross and Perry Counties from the OH-07 and adding all of those Columbus precincts that used to be in OH-12 and OH-15 (the OH-07 already had a bit of Columbus; it could have a lot more and still have voted 56% or so for Bush in 2005). This would necessitate eliminating Jim Jordan’s OH-04, which is not such a bad thing because he will likely run for the Senate against Sherrod Brown in 2012; since one GOP district has to be eliminated (OH will lose two seats), it might as well be the one of the guy running for the Senate and whose GOP counties will help shore up surrounding districts.
Given the number of Republican-dominated statehouses and governorships, it’s way too early for the Dems to be licking their chops. If anything, they may end up starting out further back then the numbers they got in 2010. Here’s some examples I’ve been thinking of.
Indiana: Republicans now have big majorities in both chambers, and Mitch Daniels has the pen. Can you say “Bye bye, Joe Donnelly?” Scratch one for the Dems.
Pennsylvania: I’d say either Jason Altmire or Mark Critz gets the ax. If the Republicans are smart, they won’t go overboard and try and gerrymander out too many Dems. Their current map didn’t work out as well as they planned. Exhibit A is Jim Gerlach having to keep outvoting the Montgomery County portions of his district.
North Carolina: Kissell, McIntyre, Miller and Shuler could be on the chopping block. Whether they want to go for Price is another matter. It might be better to keep a Chatham-Durham based district to keep the college dominated precincts out of the adjoining areas.
Michigan: I hear Michigan may lose a seat, and since the GOP has control, it may as well be Gary Peters. Swap out some more GOP-friendly precincts to McCotter, and give the Dem areas to Sander Levin.
Wisconsin: I don’t think the GOP can really do anything to weaken Ron Kind, perhaps not without harming Sean Duffy. Kind barely survived anyway, so he may lose next time without redistricting.
Georgia: Will the GOP go after John Barrow? Georgia is looking to gain a seat, but maybe they’ll try for a two-fer?
Iowa: Iowa is slated to lose a seat, and you have three Dems versus two GOP. I doubt Steve King or Tom Latham will lose. Perhaps Boswell will finally retire.
Oklahoma: Kind of iffy. Dan Boren is the last Dem standing, but could the GOP-led government really weaken him?
Massachusetts: Slated to lose a seat, and ALL the reps are Dem.
Texas: I don’t know of any vulnerable Dems that are left. Lloyd Doggett maybe, but the last effort to get rid of him backfired. Texas is supposed to gain seats, but will they necessarily be all Republican?